Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

The genome of the blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni

Schistosoma mansoni is responsible for the neglected tropical disease schistosomiasis that affects 210 million people in 76 countries. Here we present analysis of the 363 megabase nuclear genome of the blood fluke. It encodes at least 11,809 genes, with an unusual intron size distribution, and new families of micro-exon genes that undergo frequent alternative splicing. As the first sequenced flatworm, and a representative of the Lophotrochozoa, it offers insights into early events in the evolution of the animals, including the development of a body pattern with bilateral symmetry, and the development of tissues into organs. Our analysis has been informed by the need to find new drug targets. The deficits in lipid metabolism that make schistosomes dependent on the host are revealed, and the identification of membrane receptors, ion channels and more than 300 proteases provide new insights into the biology of the life cycle and new targets. Bioinformatics approaches have identified metabolic chokepoints, and a chemogenomic screen has pinpointed schistosome proteins for which existing drugs may be active. The information generated provides an invaluable resource for the research community to develop much needed new control tools for the treatment and eradication of this important and neglected disease.

Do non-native invasive fish support elevated lamprey populations?

Summary
1: Managing populations of predators and their prey to achieve conservation or resource management goals is usually technically challenging and frequently socially controversial. This is true even in the simplest ecosystems but can be made much worse when predator–prey relationships are in?uenced by complex interactions, such as biological invasions, population trends or animal movements.
2: Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland is a European stronghold for pollan Coregonus autumnalis, a coregonine ?sh and for river lampreyLampetra ?uviatilis, which feeds parasitically as an adult. Both species are of high conservation importance. Lampreys are known to consume pollan but detailed knowledge of their interactions is scant. While pollan is well known to be a landlocked species in Ireland, the life cycle of normally anadromous river lamprey in Lough Neagh has been unclear. The Lough is also a highly perturbed ecosystem, supporting several invasive, non-native ?sh species that have the potential to in?uence lamprey–pollan interactions.
3: We applied stable isotope techniques to resolve both the movement patterns of lamprey and trophic interactions in this complex community. Recognizing that stable isotope studies are often hampered by high-levels of variability and uncertainty in the systems of interest, we employed novel Bayesian mixing models, which incorporate variability and uncertainty.
4: Stable isotope analyses identi?ed troutSalmo trutta and non-native breamAbramis brama as the main items in lamprey diet. Pollan only represented a major food source for lamprey between May and July.
5: Stable isotope ratios of carbon in tissues from 71 adult lamprey showed no evidence of marine carbon sources, strongly suggesting that Lough Neagh is host to a highly unusual, nonanadromous freshwater population. This ?nding marks out the Lough’s lamprey population as of particular scienti?c interest and enhances the conservation signi?cance of this feature of the Lough.
6: Synthesis and applications.Our Bayesian isotopic mixing models illustrate an unusual pattern of animal movement, enhancing conservation interest in an already threatened population. We have also revealed a complex relationship between lamprey and their food species that is suggestive of hyperpredation, whereby non-native species may sustain high lamprey populations that may in turn be detrimental to native pollan.Long-term conservation of lamprey and pollan in this system is likely to require management intervention, but in light of this exceptional complexity, no simple management options are currently supported. Conservation plans will require better characterization ofpopulation-level interactions and simulation modelling of interventions. More generally, our study demonstrates the importance of considering a full range of possible trophic interactions, particularly in complex ecosystems, and highlights Bayesian isotopic mixing models as powerful tools in resolving trophic relationships.
Key-words: Bayesian, conservation dilemma, Coregonus autumnalis, hyperpredation, Lampetra ?uviatilis, pollan, potamodromous, River lamprey, stable isotope analysis in R, stable isotope

Genetic differentiation of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations estimated by AFLP analysis

Heart-of-palm (Euterpe edulis Mart.) is a wild palm with a wide distribution throughout the Atlantic Rainforest. Populations of E. edulis represent important renewable natural resources but are currently under threat from predatory exploitation. Furthermore, because the species is indigenous to the Atlantic Rainforest, which is located in the most economically developed and populated region of Brazil, social and economic pressures have devastated heart-of-palm forests. In order to estimate the partitioning of genetic variation of endangered E. edulis populations, 429 AFLP markers were used to analyse 150 plants representing 11 populations of the species distribution range. Analysis of the genetic structure of populations carried out using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed moderate genetic variation within populations (57.4%). Genetic differentiation between populations (F-ST = 0.426) was positively correlated with geographical distance. These results could be explained by the historical fragmentation of the Atlantic coastal region, together with the life cycle and mating system The data obtained in this work should have important implications for conservation and future breeding programmes of E. edulis.

Increasing Returns and Competitive Equilibrium--The Content and Development of Marshall's Theory

This paper reviews Alfred Marshall's attempts to reconcile increasing returns and competition from the early economic writings to the later editions of his Principles. It is shown that while Marshall's final solution to the problem involved naming external economies the cause of increasing returns in a regime of competition , both the life cycle of the firm and internal economies remained necessary to his argument. Their function was to give some operation al content to the elusive concept of external economies.

Restraing Regulatory Capture? Anglo America, Crisis Politics and Trajectories of Change in Global Financial Governance

A growing number of respected commentators now argue that regulatory capture of public agencies and public policy by leading banks was one of the main causal factors behind the financial crisis of 2007–2009, resulting in a permissive regulatory environment. This regulatory environment placed a faith in banks own internal risk models, contributed to pro-cyclical behaviour and turned a blind eye to excessive risk taking. The article argues that a form of ‘multi-level regulatory capture’ characterized the global financial architecture prior to the crisis. Simultaneously, regulatory capture fed off, but also nourished the financial boom, in a fashion that mirrored the life cycle of the boom itself. Minimizing future financial booms and crises will require continuous, conscious and explicit efforts to restrain financial regulatory capture now and into the future. The article assesses the extent to which this has been achieved in current global financial governance reform efforts and highlights some of the persistent difficulties that will continue to hamper efforts to restrain regulatory capture. The evidence concerning the extent to which regulatory capture is being effectively restrained is somewhat mixed, and where it is happening it is largely unintentional and accidental. Recent reforms have overlooked the political causes of the crisis and have failed to focus explicitly or systematically on regulatory capture.

Parasitic foraminifers on a deep-sea chiton (Mollusca, Polyplacophora, Leptochitonidae) from Iceland

Epibiotic foraminifers selectively settle on the most food-rich area of the host substrate, even when the species acts as a facultative ectoparasite in later life stages. In 398 specimens examined of the deep-sea chiton Leptochiton arcticus from Iceland, 46% show evidence of infestation by foraminifers, with many showing extensive shell damage from present and past bioeroding epibionts. Disturbances to the inner layer of the host shell are indicative of parasitism, as evidenced both by wound healing calcification and protrusions of the foraminiferan tubules. The epibionts employ different feeding strategies at different stages of their life cycle, taking advantage of nutrient availability from the posterior respiration currents and excrement of the chitons as juveniles, and feeding parasitically as adults. Epibiont persistence on individual hosts-through successive generations, or long-term continuous bioerosion by epibionts-allow larger adult parasitic foraminifers of Hyrrokkin sarcophaga to penetrate the thick tail valve of a chiton and feed parasitically on the host tissue. The proportion of chitons infested increases with host size, indicating that epibionts are accumulated through a chiton's life, seemingly without major detriment to host survivorship.

Potential Rôle of Hares in the Spread of Liver Fluke in the Netherlands.

Hares (Lepus europeanus) sharing pasture with cattle from six locations in the Netherlands were examined for the presence of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) and shown to have prevalences of infection ranging from zero to 41%. The mitochondrial haplotypes of liver flukes present in the hare populations were determined and compared with those found in cattle from a farm where triclabendazole resistance has been reported. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the flukes present in the hares belonged to the same clades as those present in the cattle. A consideration of the life cycle of the liver fluke and the seasonal breeding pattern and ecology of hares supports the suggestion that hares may act as a refugia for liver fluke and as a vector for the spread of drug-resistant genotypes.

Role of endoreduplication and apomeiosis during parthenogenetic reproduction in the model brown alga Ectocarpus

The filamentous brown alga Ectocarpus has a complex life cycle, involving alternation between independent and morphologically distinct sporophyte and gametophyte generations. In addition to this basic haploid–diploid life cycle, gametes can germinate parthenogenetically to produce parthenosporophytes. This article addresses the question of how parthenosporophytes, which are derived from a haploid progenitor cell, are able to produce meiospores in unilocular sporangia, a process that normally involves a reductive meiotic division.
We used flow cytometry, multiphoton imaging, culture studies and a bioinformatics survey of the recently sequenced Ectocarpus genome to describe its life cycle under laboratory conditions and the nuclear DNA changes which accompany key developmental transitions.
Endoreduplication occurs during the first cell cycle in about one-third of parthenosporophytes. The production of meiospores by these diploid parthenosporophytes involves a meiotic division similar to that observed in zygote-derived sporophytes. By contrast, meiospore production in parthenosporophytes that fail to endoreduplicate occurs via a nonreductive apomeiotic event.
Our results highlight Ectocarpus’s reproductive and developmental plasticity and are consistent with previous work showing that its life cycle transitions are controlled by genetic mechanisms and are independent of ploidy.

Genomic insights into the origin of parasitism in the emerging plant pathogen Bursaphelenchus xylophilus.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is the nematode responsible for a devastating epidemic of pine wilt disease in Asia and Europe, and represents a recent, independent origin of plant parasitism in nematodes, ecologically and taxonomically distinct from other nematodes for which genomic data is available. As well as being an important pathogen, the B. xylophilus genome thus provides a unique opportunity to study the evolution and mechanism of plant parasitism. Here, we present a high-quality draft genome sequence from an inbred line of B. xylophilus, and use this to investigate the biological basis of its complex ecology which combines fungal feeding, plant parasitic and insect-associated stages. We focus particularly on putative parasitism genes as well as those linked to other key biological processes and demonstrate that B. xylophilus is well endowed with RNA interference effectors, peptidergic neurotransmitters (including the first description of ins genes in a parasite) stress response and developmental genes and has a contracted set of chemosensory receptors. B. xylophilus has the largest number of digestive proteases known for any nematode and displays expanded families of lysosome pathway genes, ABC transporters and cytochrome P450 pathway genes. This expansion in digestive and detoxification proteins may reflect the unusual diversity in foods it exploits and environments it encounters during its life cycle. In addition, B. xylophilus possesses a unique complement of plant cell wall modifying proteins acquired by horizontal gene transfer, underscoring the impact of this process on the evolution of plant parasitism by nematodes. Together with the lack of proteins homologous to effectors from other plant parasitic nematodes, this confirms the distinctive molecular basis of plant parasitism in the Bursaphelenchus lineage. The genome sequence of B. xylophilus adds to the diversity of genomic data for nematodes, and will be an important resource in understanding the biology of this unusual parasite.

Electric Vehicles - a well to wheel analysis

The European Union has set a target for 10% renewable energy in transport by 2020, which will be met using both biofuels and electric vehicles. In the case of biofuels, for the purposes of meeting the target, the biofuel must achieve greenhouse gas savings of 35% relative to the fossil fuel replaced. For biofuels, greenhouse gas savings can be calculated using life cycle analysis, or the European Union default values. In contrast, all electricity used in transport is considered to be the same, regardless of the source or the type of electric vehicle. However, the choice of the electric vehicle and electricity source will have a major impact on the greenhouse gas savings. This paper examines different electric-vehicle scenarios in terms of greenhouse gas savings, using a well-to-wheel life cycle analysis.

Conservation status and reproduction of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera).

1. Freshwater unionoids are one of the most threatened animal groups worldwide and the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera is currently listed as critically endangered in Europe. The ‘EC Habitats & Species Directive’ requires that EU member states monitor the distribution and abundance of this species and report regularly on its conservation status.
2. The pearl mussel meta-population in Northern Ireland was surveyed to assess temporal population trends in Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and mussel reproduction throughout its range.
3. Mussels occurred in six rivers and numbers within three SAC designated sites remained stable between 2004-07 and 2011. The discovery of >8,000 previously unknown individuals in the Owenreagh River contributed to an overall increase (+56.8%) in the total known population. All populations actively reproduced during 2010 with approximately half of all individuals gravid. Moreover, suitable salmonid hosts occurred at all sites with 10.7% of salmon and 22.8% of trout carrying encysted glochidia. Populations were composed entirely of aged individuals with little evidence of recent recruitment.
4. We infer that the break in the life cycle must occur during the juvenile stage when glochidia metamorphose and settle into the interstitial spaces within the substrate. Water quality parameters, most notably levels of suspended solids, exceeded the recommended maximum thresholds in all rivers.
5. We posit that the deposition of silt may be the main cause of juvenile mortality contributing to a lack of recruitment. Consequently, all populations were judged to be in ‘unfavourable’ conservation status. Catchment-level management plans are urgently needed to reduce siltation with the aim of improving recruitment. Our results have implications for the success of ex-situ conservation programmes; specifically, the size at which captive bred juveniles are released into the wild. Further research is required to assess the vulnerabilities of early life stages of M. margaritifera to siltation.

Cloning and analysis of a Trichinella pseudospiralis muscle larva secreted serine protease gene

Nematode parasites of the genus Trichinella are intracellular and distinct life cycle stages invade intestinal epithelial and skeletal muscle cells. Within the genus, Trichinella spiralis and Trichinella pseudospiralis exhibit species-specific differences with respect to host-parasite complex formation and host immune modulation. Parasite excretory-secretory (ES) proteins play important roles at the host-parasite interface and are thought to underpin these differences in biology. Serine proteases are among the most abundant group of T. spiralis ES proteins and multiple isoforms of the muscle larvae-specific TspSP-1 serine protease have been identified. Recently, a similar protein (TppSP-1) in T. pseudospiralis muscle larvae was identified. Here we report the cloning and characterisation of the full-length transcript of TppSP-1 and present comparative data between TspSP-1 and TppSP-1.

Constrained adoptive parenthood and family transition: Adopters' experience of unplanned birth family contact in adolescence

Adoption policy in the UK emphasizes its role in providing secure, permanent relationships to children in care who are unable to live with their birth families. Adoptive parents are crucial in providing this life-long, stable experience of family for these vulnerable children. This paper explores the experience of adoptive parenthood in the context of changes to adoptive kinship relationships brought about by new, unplanned contact with birth family during their child's middle adolescence. This contact was initiated via informal social networks and/or social media, with older birth siblings instrumental in negotiating renewed relationships. The contact precipitated a transition in adoptive family life resulting in emotional challenges and changes in parent/child relationships, which were experienced as additional to the normative transitions expected during adolescence. Parental concern as a dominant theme was founded in the child and birth sibling's stage of adolescence, coupled with constraints on adoptive parenthood imposed by the use of social media, by perceived professional attitudes and by parental social cognitions about the importance of birth ties. Adoptive parents' accounts are interpreted with reference to family life-cycle theory and implications are suggested for professional support of adoptive kinship relationships.

Mapping and understanding organizational change:Ireland 1922-2010

Capturing, mapping, and understanding organizational change within bureaucracies is inherently problematic, and the paucity of empirical research in this area reflects the traditional reluctance of scholars to pursue this endeavor. In this article, drawing on the Irish case of organizational change, potential avenues for overcoming such challenges are presented. Drawing on the resources of a time-series database that captures and codes the life cycle of all Irish public organizations since independence, the article explores the evolution of the Irish administrative system since the independence of the state in 1922. These findings provide some pointers toward overcoming the challenges associated with studying change in Whitehall-type bureaucracies. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.