Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

An integrated multi-sensor data fusion algorithm and autopilot iImplementation in an uninhabited surface craft

Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) are able to accomplish difficult and challenging tasks both in civilian and defence sectors without endangering human lives. Their ability to work round the clock makes them well-suited for matters that demand immediate attention. These issues include but not limited to mines countermeasures, measuring the extent of an oil spill and locating the source of a chemical discharge. A number of USV programmes have emerged in the last decade for a variety of aforementioned purposes. Springer USV is one such research project highlighted in this paper. The intention herein is to report results emanating from data acquired from experiments on the Springer vessel whilst testing its advanced navigation, guidance and control (NGC) subsystems. The algorithms developed for these systems are based on soft-computing methodologies. A novel form of data fusion navigation algorithm has been developed and integrated with a modified optimal controller. Experimental results are presented and analysed for various scenarios including single and multiple waypoints tracking and fixed and time-varying reference bearings. It is demonstrated that the proposed NGC system provides promising results despite the presence of modelling uncertainty and external disturbances.

Recent fast electron energy transport experiments relevant to fast ignition inertial fusion

A number of experiments have been undertaken at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory that were designed to investigate the physics of fast electron transport relevant to fast ignition inertial fusion. The laser, operating at a wavelength of 1054 nm, provided pulses of up to 350 J of energy on target in a duration that varied in the range 0.5-5 ps and a focused intensity of up to 10(21) W cm(-2). A dependence of the divergence of the fast electron beam with intensity on target has been identified for the first time. This dependence is reproduced in two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations and has been found to be an intrinsic property of the laser-plasma interaction. A number of ideas to control the divergence of the fast electron beam are described. The fractional energy transfer to the fast electron beam has been obtained from calibrated, time-resolved, target rear-surface radiation temperature measurements. It is in the range 15-30%, increasing with incident laser energy on target. The fast electron temperature has been measured to be lower than the ponderomotive potential energy and is well described by Haines' relativistic absorption model.

Fast plasma heating in a cone-attached geometry - towards fusion ignition

We have developed a PW (0.5 ps/500J) laser system to demonstrate fast heating of imploded core plasmas using a hollow cone shell target. Significant enhancement of thermal neutron yield has been realized with PW-laser heating, confirming that the high heating efficiency is maintained as the short-pulse laser power is substantially increased to a value nearly equivalent to the ignition condition. It appears that the efficient heating is realized by the guiding of the PW laser pulse energy within the hollow cone and by self-organized relativistic electron transport. Based on the experimental results, we are developing a 10kJ-PW laser system to study the fast heating physics of high-density plasmas at an ignition-equivalent temperature.

Indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion using highly supersonic, radiatively cooled, plasma slugs

We present a new approach to indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion which makes use of highly supersonic, radiatively cooled, slugs of plasma to energize a hohlraum. 2D resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations of slug formation in shaped liner Z -pinch implosions are presented along with 2D-radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of the slug impacting a converter foil and 3D-view-factor simulations of a double-ended hohlraum. Results for the Z facility at Sandia National Laboratory indicate that two synchronous slugs of 250 kJ kinetic energy could be produced, resulting in a capsule surface temperature of similar to225 eV .