Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

Single-shot characterisation of independent femtosecond extreme ultraviolet free electron andf infrared laser pulses

Two-color above threshold ionization of helium and xenon has been used to analyze the synchronization between individual pulses of the femtosecond extreme ultraviolet (XUV) free electron laser in Hamburg and an independent intense 120 fs mode-locked Ti:sapphire laser. Characteristic sidebands appear in the photoelectron spectra when the two pulses overlap spatially and temporally. The cross-correlation curve points to a 250 fs rms jitter between the two sources at the experiment. A more precise determination of the temporal fluctuation between the XUV and infrared pulses is obtained through the analysis of the single-shot sideband intensities. ©2007 American Institute of Physics

Operation of a free-electron laser from the extreme ultraviolet to the water window

We report results on the performance of a free-electron laser operating at a wavelength of 13.7 nm where unprecedented peak and average powers for a coherent extreme-ultraviolet radiation source have been measured. In the saturation regime, the peak energy approached 170 J for individual pulses, and the average energy per pulse reached 70 J. The pulse duration was in the region of 10 fs, and peak powers of 10 GW were achieved. At a pulse repetition frequency of 700 pulses per second, the average extreme-ultraviolet power reached 20 mW. The output beam also contained a significant contribution from odd harmonics of approximately 0.6% and 0.03% for the 3rd (4.6 nm) and the 5th (2.75 nm) harmonics, respectively. At 2.75 nm the 5th harmonic of the radiation reaches deep into the water window, a wavelength range that is crucially important for the investigation of biological samples.

Unlinked vital events in census-based longitudinal studies can bias subsequent analysis

Objective: To examine the potential biases arising from the nonlinkage of census records and vital events in longitudinal studies.
Study Design and Setting: A total of 56,396 deaths of residents of Northern Ireland in the 4 years after the 2001 Census were linked to the 2001 Census records. The characteristics of matched and nonmatched death records were compared using multivariate logistic regression. Subject attributes were as recorded on the death certificate.
Results: In total, 3,392 (6.0%) deaths could not be linked to a census record. Linkage rates were lowest in young adults, males, the unmarried, people living in communal establishments, or living in areas that were more deprived or had recorded low census enumeration. For those aged less than 65 years at census, this linkage would exclude from analysis 20.2% of suicides and 19.7% of deaths by external causes.
Conclusion: The nonlinkage of census and death records is a combination of nonenumeration at census and deficient information about the deceased recorded at the time of death. Unmatched individuals may have been more disadvantaged or socially isolated, and analysis based on the linked data set may therefore show some bias and perhaps understate true social gradients.