Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Cognitive amplify-and-forward relay networks with beamforming under primary user power constraint over Nakagami-m fading channels

In this paper, we analyze the performance of cognitive amplify-and-forward (AF) relay networks with beamforming under the peak interference power constraint of the primary user (PU). We focus on the scenario that beamforming is applied at the multi-antenna secondary transmitter and receiver. Also, the secondary relay network operates in channel state information-assisted AF mode, and the signals undergo independent Nakagami-m fading. In particular, closed-form expressions for the outage probability and symbol error rate (SER) of the considered network over Nakagami-m fading are presented. More importantly, asymptotic closed-form expressions for the outage probability and SER are derived. These tractable closed-form expressions for the network performance readily enable us to evaluate and examine the impact of network parameters on the system performance. Specifically, the impact of the number of antennas, the fading severity parameters, the channel mean powers, and the peak interference power is addressed. The asymptotic analysis manifests that the peak interference power constraint imposed on the secondary relay network has no effect on the diversity gain. However, the coding gain is affected by the fading parameters of the links from the primary receiver to the secondary relay network

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Lower resting energy expenditure and fat oxidation in Native American and Hispanic infants born to mothers with diabetes

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether exposure to diabetes in utero affects resting energy expenditure (REE) and fuel oxidation in infants.

STUDY DESIGN: At 35 ± 5 days after birth, body composition and REE were measured in full-term offspring of Native American and Hispanic women with either well-controlled diabetes (13 girls, 11 boys) or normal healthy pregnancies (18 girls, 17 boys).

RESULTS: Control of dysglycemia during gestation in the women with diabetes mellitus met current clinical standards, shown by average glycated hemoglobin (5.9 ± 0.2%; 40.6 ± 2.3 mmol/mol). Infant body mass (offspring of women with diabetes: 4.78 ± 0.13, control offspring: 4.56 ± 0.08 kg) and body fatness (offspring of women with diabetes: 25.2 ± 0.6, control offspring: 24.2 ± 0.5 %) did not differ between groups. REE, adjusted for lean body mass, was 14% lower in offspring of women with diabetes (41.7 ± 2.3 kJ/h) than control offspring (48.6 ± 2.0, P = .025). Fat oxidation was 26% lower in offspring of women with diabetes (0.54 ± 0.05 g/h) than control offspring (0.76 ± 0.04, P < .01) but carbohydrate oxidation did not differ. Thus, fat oxidation accounted for a lower fraction of REE in the offspring of women with diabetes (49 ± 4%) than control offspring (60 ± 3%, P = .022). Mothers with diabetes were older and had higher prepregnancy body mass index than control mothers.

CONCLUSIONS: Well-controlled maternal diabetes did not significantly affect body mass or composition of offspring at 1-month old. However, infants with mothers with diabetes had reduced REE and fat oxidation, which could contribute to adiposity and future disease risk. Further studies are needed to assess the impact differences in age and higher prepregnancy body mass index.

Queen's University Belfast, APC Expenditure Report 2015

The Library’s Open Access Team has submitted, on behalf of the University, an Article Processing Charges (APCs) expenditure report to Jisc Collections for 2015. In 2015 Queen’s University Belfast had a total APC spend of £138,039 which enabled 123 articles by Queen’s authors to be made open access via the gold route. This is a significant increase in both APC spend and the number of articles made open access in comparison to 2014.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Reduced Intensity Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy for Children Aged 9–11 years with Hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy: A Pilot Study

OBJECTIVE: Assess efficacy and acceptability of reduced intensity constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) in children with cerebral palsy (CP).

METHODS: Single-subject research design and semi-structured interviews. Children (9-11y) with hemiplegia underwent five baseline assessments followed by two weeks CIMT. Six further assessments were performed during treatment and follow-up phases. The primary outcome was the Melbourne Assessment of Unilateral Upper Limb Function (MUUL). Quantitative data were analysed using standard single-subject methods and qualitative data by thematic analysis.

RESULTS: Four of the seven participants demonstrated statistically significant improvements in MUUL (3-11%, p < .05). Two participants achieved significant improvements in active range of motion but strength and tone remained largely unchanged. Qualitative interviews highlighted limitations of the restraint, importance of family involvement, and coordination of treatment with education.

CONCLUSIONS: Reduced intensity CIMT may be effective for some children in this population; however it is not suitable for all children with hemiplegia.

Implementing a structural continuity constraint and a halting method for the topology optimization of energy absorbers

This study investigates topology optimization of energy absorbing structures in which material damage is accounted for in the optimization process. The optimization objective is to design the lightest structures that are able to absorb the required mechanical energy. A structural continuity constraint check is introduced that is able to detect when no feasible load path remains in the finite element model, usually as a result of large scale fracture. This assures that designs do not fail when loaded under the conditions prescribed in the design requirements. This continuity constraint check is automated and requires no intervention from the analyst once the optimization process is initiated. Consequently, the optimization algorithm proceeds towards evolving an energy absorbing structure with the minimum structural mass that is not susceptible to global structural failure. A method is also introduced to determine when the optimization process should halt. The method identifies when the optimization method has plateaued and is no longer likely to provide improved designs if continued for further iterations. This provides the designer with a rational method to determine the necessary time to run the optimization and avoid wasting computational resources on unnecessary iterations. A case study is presented to demonstrate the use of this method.

An analysis of wind curtailment and constraint at a nodal level

Many countries have set challenging wind power targets to achieve by 2020. This paper implements a realistic analysis of curtailment and constraint of wind energy at a nodal level using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the Irish Single Electricity Market in 2020. The key findings show that significant reduction in curtailment can be achieved when the system non-synchronous penetration limit increases from 65% to 75%. For the period analyzed, this results in a decreased total generation cost and a reduction in the dispatch-down of wind. However, some nodes experience significant dispatch-down of wind, which can be in the order of 40%. This work illustrates the importance of implementing analysis at a nodal level for the purpose of power system planning.