The anomaly in the candidate microlensing event PA-99-N2

The light curve of PA-99-N2, one of the recently announced microlensing candidates toward M31, shows small deviations from the standard Paczynski form. We explore a number of possible explanations, including correlations with the seeing, the parallax effect, and a binary lens. We find that the observations are consistent with an unresolved red giant branch or asymptotic giant branch star in M31 being microlensed by a binary lens. We find that the best-fit binary lens mass ratio is similar to1.2x10(-2), which is one of the most extreme values found for a binary lens so far. If both the source and lens lie in the M31 disk, then the standard M31 model predicts the probable mass range of the system to be 0.02-3.6 M-circle dot (95% confidence limit). In this scenario, the mass of the secondary component is therefore likely to be below the hydrogen-burning limit. On the other hand, if a compact halo object in M31 is lensing a disk or spheroid source, then the total lens mass is likely to lie between 0.09 and 32 M-circle dot, which is consistent with the primary being a stellar remnant and the secondary being a low-mass star or brown dwarf. The optical depth (or, alternatively, the differential rate) along the line of sight toward the event indicates that a halo lens is more likely than a stellar lens, provided that dark compact objects comprise no less than 15% (or 5%) of halos.

A candidate M31/M32 intergalactic microlensing event

We report the discovery of a microlensing candidate projected 2'54

A short-timescale candidate microlensing event in the point-agape pixel lensing survey of M31

We report the discovery of a short-duration microlensing candidate in the northern field of the POINT-AGAPE pixel lensing survey toward M31. Almost certainly, the source star has been identified on Hubble Space Telescope archival images, allowing us to infer an Einstein crossing time of t(E) = 10.4 days, a maximum magnification of A(max) similar to 18, and a lens-source proper motion mu (rel) > 0.3 mu as day(-1). The event has a projected separation of 8' from the center of M31, beyond the bulk of the stellar lens population. There are three plausible identifications/locations for the lensing object: a massive compact halo object (MACHO) in either M31 or the Milky Way, or a star in the M31 disk. The most probable mass is 0.06 M-. for an M31 MACHO, 0.02 M-. for a Milky Way MACHO, and 0.2 M-. for an M31 stellar lens. While the stellar interpretation is possible, the MACHO interpretation is the most probable for halo fractions above 20%.

The developmental character of cardiac autonomic responses to an acute noxious event in 4- and 8-month-old healthy infants

Heart rate (HR) has been widely studied as a measure of an individual's response to painful stimuli. It remains unclear whether changes in mean HR or the variability of HR are specifically related to the noxious stimulus (i.e. pain). Neither is it well understood how such changes reflect underlying neurologic control mechanisms that produce these responses, or how these mechanisms change during the first year of life. To study the changes in cardiac autonomic modulation that occur with acute pain and with age during early infancy, the relationship between respiratory activity and short-term variations of HR (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia) was quantified in a longitudinal study of term born healthy infants who underwent a finger lance blood collection at 4 months of age (n = 24) and again at 8 months of age (n = 20). Quantitative respiratory activity and HR were obtained during baseline, lance, and recovery periods. Time and frequency domain analyses from 2.2-min epochs of data yielded mean values, spectral measures of low (0.04-0.15 Hz) and high (0.15-0.80 Hz) frequency power (LF and HF), and the LF/HF ratio. To determine sympathetic and parasympathetic cardiac activity, the transfer relation between respiration and HR was used. At both 4 and 8 months, mean HR increased significantly with the noxious event (p > 0.01). There were age-related differences in the pattern of LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio changes. Although these parameters all decreased (p > 0.01) at 4 months, LF and LF/HF increased at 8 months and at 8 months HF remained stable in response to the noxious stimulus. Transfer gain changes with the lance demonstrated a change from predominant vagal baseline to a sympathetic condition at both ages. The primary finding of this study is that a response to an acute noxious stimulus appears to produce an increase in respiratory-related sympathetic HR control and a significant decrease in respiratory-related parasympathetic control at both 4 and 8 months. Furthermore, with increasing age, the sympathetic and parasympathetic changes appear to be less intense, but more sustained.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.