Maintaining a grasp on reality – Is our validation and design effort focused in the same direction?

This article examines the influence on the engineering design process of the primary objective of validation, whether it is proving a model, a technology or a product. Through the examination of a number of stiffened panel case studies, the relationships between simulation, validation, design and the final product are established and discussed. The work demonstrates the complex interactions between the original (or anticipated) design model, the analysis model, the validation activities and the product in service. The outcome shows clearly some unintended consequences. High fidelity validation test simulations require a different set of detailed parameters to accurately capture behaviour. By doing so, there is a divergence from the original computer-aided design model, intrinsically limiting the value of the validation with respect to the product. This work represents a shift from the traditional perspective of encapsulating and controlling errors between simulation and experimental test to consideration of the wider design-test process. Specifically, it is a reflection on the implications of how models are built and validated, and the effect on results and understanding of structural behaviour. This article then identifies key checkpoints in the design process and how these should be used to update the computer-aided design system parameters for a design. This work strikes at a fundamental challenge in understanding the interaction between design, certification and operation of any complex system.

Determining the optimal current direction of transcranial magnetic stimulation to induce motor responses in the tongue: A preliminary study of neurologically healthy individuals

Objective
To determine the optimal transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) coil direction for inducing motor responses in the tongue in a group of non-neurologically impaired participants.
Methods
Single-pulse TMS was delivered using a figure-of-eight Magstim 2002 TMS coil. Study 1 investigated the effect of eight different TMS coil directions on the motor-evoked potentials elicited in the tongue in eight adults. Study 2 examined active motor threshold levels at optimal TMS coil direction compared to a customarily-used ventral-caudal direction. Study 3 repeated the procedure of Study 1 at five different sites across the tongue motor cortex in one adult.
Results
Inter-individual variability in optimal direction was observed, with an optimal range of directions determined for the group. Active motor threshold was reduced when a participant's own optimal TMS coil direction was used compared to the ventral-caudal direction. A restricted range of optimal directions was identified across the five cortical positions tested.
Conclusions
There is a need to identify each individual's own optimal TMS coil direction in investigating tongue motor cortex function. A recommended procedure for determining optimal coil direction is described.
Significance
Optimized TMS procedures are needed so that TMS can be utilized in determining the underlying neurophysiological basis of various motor speech disorders.

The direction of media influence: Real-estate news and the stock market

This paper uses a novel identification strategy to test the influence of news media on the stock market. Because the stock market does not impact the media coverage of the housing market, a relationship between real-estate news and shares of companies engaged in the housing market is attributable media influence. I find that the content of reporting exhibits a significant relationship with stock returns, and the amount of news with the number of trades. These relationships exist even after controlling for known risk factors, housing market performance and intra-week correlation. This finding is consistent with the function of the media as a source of information and sentiment in financial markets.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.