Cost Estimation of Machined Parts within an Aerospace Supply Chain

A generic, hierarchical, and multifidelity unit cost of acquisition estimating methodology for outside production machined parts is presented. The originality of the work lies with the method’s inherent capability of being able to generate multilevel and multifidelity cost relations for large volumes of parts utilizing process, supply chain costing data, and varying degrees of part design definition information. Estimates can be generated throughout the life cycle of a part using different grades of the combined information available. Considering design development for a given part, additional design definition may be used as it becomes available within the developed method to improve the quality of the resulting estimate. Via a process of analogous classification, parts are classified into groups of increasing similarity using design-based descriptors. A parametric estimating method is then applied to each subgroup of the machined part commodity in the direction of improved classification and using which, a relationship which links design variables to manufacturing cycle time may be generated. A rate cost reflective of the supply chain is then applied to the cycle time estimate for a given part to arrive at an estimate of make cost which is then totalled with the material and treatments cost components respectively to give an overall estimate of unit acquisition cost. Both the rate charge applied and the treatments cost calculated for a given procured part is derived via the use of ratio analysis.

Query cost estimation through remote system contention states analysis over the Internet

Query processing over the Internet involving autonomous data sources is a major task in data integration. It requires the estimated costs of possible queries in order to select the best one that has the minimum cost. In this context, the cost of a query is affected by three factors: network congestion, server contention state, and complexity of the query. In this paper, we study the effects of both the network congestion and server contention state on the cost of a query. We refer to these two factors together as system contention states. We present a new approach to determining the system contention states by clustering the costs of a sample query. For each system contention state, we construct two cost formulas for unary and join queries respectively using the multiple regression process. When a new query is submitted, its system contention state is estimated first using either the time slides method or the statistical method. The cost of the query is then calculated using the corresponding cost formulas. The estimated cost of the query is further adjusted to improve its accuracy. Our experiments show that our methods can produce quite accurate cost estimates of the submitted queries to remote data sources over the Internet.

Overweight and obesity on the island of Ireland: an estimation of costs

Objectives The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity worldwide continues to compromise population health and creates a wider societal cost in terms of productivity loss and premature mortality. Despite extensive international literature on the cost of overweight and obesity, findings are inconsistent between Europe and the USA, and particularly within Europe. Studies vary on issues of focus, specific costs and methods. This study aims to estimate the healthcare and productivity costs of overweight and obesity for the island of Ireland in 2009, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches.

Methods Costs were estimated across four categories: healthcare utilisation, drug costs, work absenteeism and premature mortality. Healthcare costs were estimated using Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs). PAFs were applied to national cost data for hospital care and drug prescribing. PAFs were also applied to social welfare and national mortality data to estimate productivity costs due to absenteeism and premature mortality.

Results The healthcare costs of overweight and obesity in 2009 were estimated at €437 million for the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and €127.41 million for NI. Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity was up to €865 million for ROI and €362 million for NI. The main drivers of healthcare costs are cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes, colon cancer, stroke and gallbladder disease. In terms of absenteeism, low back pain is the main driver in both jurisdictions, and for productivity loss due to premature mortality the primary driver of cost is coronary heart disease.

Conclusions The costs are substantial, and urgent public health action is required in Ireland to address the problem of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, which if left unchecked will lead to unsustainable cost escalation within the health service and unacceptable societal costs.

Capital substitutability and weak sustainability revisited: The conditions for capital substitution in the presence of risk

The capital approach is frequently used to model sustainability. A development is deemed to be sustainable when capital is not reduced. There are different definitions of sustainability, based on whether or not they allow that different forms of capital may be substituted for each other. A development that allows for the substitution of different forms of capital is called weakly sustainable. This article shows that in a risky world and a risk-averse society even under the assumptions of weak sustainability the circumstances under which different forms of capital may be substituted are limited. This is due to the risk-reducing effect of diversification. Using Modern Portfolio Theory this article shows under which conditions substitution of different forms of capital increases risk for future generations.

On the limits of spectral methods for frequency estimation

An algorithm is presented which generates pairs of oscillatory random time series which have identical periodograms but differ in the number of oscillations. This result indicates the intrinsic limitations of spectral methods when it comes to the task of measuring frequencies. Other examples, one from medicine and one from bifurcation theory, are given, which also exhibit these limitations of spectral methods. For two methods of spectral estimation it is verified that the particular way end points are treated, which is specific to each method, is, for long enough time series, not relevant for the main result.

A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial of an Adapted U.S. Model of Pharmaceutical Care for Nursing Home Residents in Northern Ireland (Fleetwood Northern Ireland Study): A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an adapted U.S. model of pharmaceutical care to improve psychoactive prescribing for nursing home residents in Northern Ireland (Fleetwood NI Study).
DESIGN: Economic evaluation alongside a cluster randomized controlled trial.
SETTING: Nursing homes in NI randomized to intervention (receipt of the adapted model of care; n511) or control (usual care continued; n511).
PARTICIPANTS: Residents aged 65 and older who provided informed consent (N5253; 128 intervention, 125 control) and who had full resource use data at 12 months.
INTERVENTION: Trained pharmacists reviewed intervention home residents’ clinical and prescribing information for 12 months, applied an algorithm that guided them in assessing the appropriateness of psychoactive medication, and worked with prescribers (general practitioners) to make changes. The control homes received usual care in which there was no pharmacist intervention.
MEASUREMENTS: The proportion of residents prescribed one or more inappropriate psychoactive medications (according to standardized protocols), costs, and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. The latter two outcomes are the focus for this article.
RESULTS: The proportions of residents receiving inappropriate psychoactive medication at 12 months in the intervention and control group were 19.5% and 50.4%, respectively. The mean cost of healthcare resources used per resident per year was $4,923 (95% con?dence interval.

The effect of feedstock cost on biofuel cost as exemplified by biomethane production from grass silage.

Abstract: The potential variance in feedstock costs can have signifi cant implications for the cost of a biofuel and the fi nancial viability of a biofuel facility. This paper employs the Grange Feed Costing Model to assess the cost of on-farm biomethane production using grass silages produced under a range of management scenarios. These costs were compared with the cost of wheat grain and sugarbeet roots for ethanol production at an industrial scale. Of the three feedstocks examined, grass silage represents the cheapest feedstock per GJ of biofuel produced. At a production cost of €27/tonne (t) feedstock (or €150/t volatile solids (VS)), the feedstock production cost of grass silage per gigajoule (GJ) of biofuel (€12.27) is lower than that of sugarbeet (€16.82) and wheat grain (€18.61). Grass biomethane is also the cheapest biofuel when grass silage is costed at the bottom quartile purchase price of silage of €19/t (€93/t VS). However, when considering the production costs (full-costing) of the three feedstocks, the total cost of grass biomethane (€32.37/GJ of biofuel; intensive 2-cut system) from a small on-farm facility ranks between that of sugarbeet (€29.62) and wheat grain ethanol (€34.31) produced in large industrial facilities. The feedstock costs for the above three biofuels represent 0.38, 0.57, and 0.54 of the total biofuel cost. The importance of feedstock cost on biofuel cost is further highlighted by the 0.43 increase in the cost of biomethane when grass silage is priced at the top quartile (€46/t or €232/t VS) compared to the bottom quartile purchase price.

An Integration Methodology for Automated Recurring Cost Prediction using Digital Manufacturing Technology

The need to account for the effect of design decisions on manufacture and the impact of manufacturing cost on the life cycle cost of any product are well established. In this context, digital design and manufacturing solutions have to be further developed to facilitate and automate the integration of cost as one of the major driver in the product life cycle management. This article is to present an integration methodology for implementing cost estimation capability within a digital manufacturing environment. A digital manufacturing structure of knowledge databases are set out and the ontology of assembly and part costing that is consistent with the structure is provided. Although the methodology is currently used for recurring cost prediction, it can be well applied to other functional developments, such as process planning. A prototype tool is developed to integrate both assembly time cost and parts manufacturing costs within the same digital environment. An industrial example is used to validate this approach.

Genetic variability evaluation in a Moroccan collection of barley, Hordeum vulgare L., by means of storage proteins and RAPDS

The genetic variation existing in a set of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) landrace samples recently collected in Morocco was estimated. Two kinds of genetic markers, seed storage proteins (hordeins) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), were used. Only six out of 31 landraces were subjected to RAPD analysis. Both kinds of markers, RAPD and storage proteins, yielded similar results, showing that the level of variation observed in Moroccan barley was high: all landraces showed variability; 808 different storage protein patterns (multilocus associations) were observed among 1897 individuals (2.32 seeds per association, on average) with an average of 43 multilocus associations per accession. In general, genetic variation within accessions was higher than between accessions. The 100 polymorphic RAPD bands generated by 21 effective primers were able to generate enough patterns to differentiate between uniform cultivars and even between individuals in variable accessions. One of the aims of this work was to compare the effectiveness of RAPD versus storage protein techniques in assessing the variability of genetic resource collections. On average hordeins were more polymorphic than RAPDs: they showed more alternatives per band on gels and a higher percentage of polymorphic bands, although RAPDs supply a higher number of bands. Although RAPD is an easy and standard technique, storage protein analysis is technically easier, cheaper and needs less sophisticated equipment. Thus, when resources are a limiting factor and considering the cost of consumables and work time, seed storage proteins must be the technique of choice for a first estimation of genetic variation in plant genetic resource collections.

Energy monitoring and quality control of a single screw extruder

Polymer extrusion, in which a polymer is melted and conveyed to a mould or die, forms the basis of most polymer processing techniques. Extruders frequently run at non-optimised conditions and can account for 15–20% of overall process energy losses. In times of increasing energy efficiency such losses are a major concern for the industry. Product quality, which depends on the homogeneity and stability of the melt flow which in turn depends on melt temperature and screw speed, is also an issue of concern of processors. Gear pumps can be used to improve the stability of the production line, but the cost is usually high. Likewise it is possible to introduce energy meters but they also add to the capital cost of the machine. Advanced control incorporating soft sensing capabilities offers opportunities to this industry to improve both quality and energy efficiency. Due to strong correlations between the critical variables, such as the melt temperature and melt pressure, traditional decentralized PID (Proportional–Integral–Derivative) control is incapable of handling such processes if stricter product specifications are imposed or the material is changed from one batch to another. In this paper, new real-time energy monitoring methods have been introduced without the need to install power meters or develop data-driven models. The effects of process settings on energy efficiency and melt quality are then studied based on developed monitoring methods. Process variables include barrel heating temperature, water cooling temperature, and screw speed. Finally, a fuzzy logic controller is developed for a single screw extruder to achieve high melt quality. The resultant performance of the developed controller has shown it to be a satisfactory alternative to the expensive gear pump. Energy efficiency of the extruder can further be achieved by optimising the temperature settings. Experimental results from open-loop control and fuzzy control on a Killion 25 mm single screw extruder are presented to confirm the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Wave loads on the foundation of a bottom-hinged modular flap structure

Large loads result in expensive foundations which are a substantial proportion of the capital cost of flap-type Wave Energy Converters (WECs). Devices such as Oyster 800, currently deployed at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC), comprise a single flap for the full width of the machine. Splitting a flap-type device into smaller vertical flap modules, to make a ‘modular-flap’, might reduce the total foundation loads, whilst still providing acceptable performance in terms of energy conversion.
This paper investigates the foundation loads of an undamped modular-flap device, comparing them to those for a rigid flap of an equivalent width. Physical modelling in a wave tank is used, with loads recorded using a six degree of freedom (DoF) load cell. Both fatigue and extreme loading analysis was conducted. The rotations of the flaps were also recorded, using a motion-tracking system.

Cost-effectiveness of tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate elderly: a randomized controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing two different tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate older patients, namely partial removable dental prostheses (RDP) and functionally orientated treatment based on the shortened dental arch concept (SDA).

METHODS: Ninety-two partially dentate older patients completed a randomized controlled clinical trial. Patients were randomly allocated to two treatment groups: the RDP group and the SDA group. Treatment effect was measured using impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHrQOL), and the costs involved in providing and maintaining care were recorded for all patients. Patients were followed for 12 months after treatment intervention. All treatment was provided by a single operator.

RESULTS: The total cost of achieving the minimally important clinical difference (MID) in OHrQOL for an average patient in the RDP group was €464.64. For the SDA group, the cost of achieving the MID for an average patient was €252.00. The cost-effectiveness ratio was therefore 1:1.84 in favour of SDA treatment.

CONCLUSION: With an increasingly ageing population, many patients will continue to benefit from removable prostheses to replace their missing natural teeth. From a purely economic standpoint, the results from this analysis suggest that the treatment of partially dentate older adults should be focused on functionally orientated treatment because it is simply more cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of ART restorations in elderly adults: a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND: As the world population ages, the requirement for cost-effective methods of treating chronic disease conditions increases. In terms of oral health, there is a rapidly increasing number of dentate elderly with a high burden of maintenance. Population surveys indicate that older individuals are keeping their teeth for longer and are a higher caries risk group. Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) could be suitable for patients in nursing homes or house-bound elderly, but very little research has been done on its use in adults.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the cost-effectiveness of ART and a conventional technique (CT) for restoring carious lesions as part of a preventive and restorative programme for older adults.

METHODS: In this randomized clinical trial, 82 patients with carious lesions were randomly allocated to receive either ART or conventional restorations. Treatment costs were measured based on treatment time, materials and labour. For the ART group, the cost of care provided by a dentist was also compared to the cost of having a hygienist to provide treatment. Effectiveness was measured using percentage of restorations that survived after a year.

RESULTS: Eighty-two patients received 260 restorations, that is, 128 ART and 132 conventional restorations. 91.1% of the restorations were on one surface only. After a year, 252 restorations were assessed in 80 patients. The average cost for ART and conventional restorations was €16.86 and €28.71 respectively; the restoration survival percentages were 91.1% and 97.7%, respectively. This resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of 0.18 (ART) and 0.29 (CT). When the cost of a hygienist to provide ART was inserted in the analysis, the resulting ratio was 0.14.

CONCLUSIONS: Atraumatic restorative treatment was found to be a more cost-effective alternative to treat older adults after 1 year, compared to conventional restorations, especially in out of surgery facilities and using alternative workforce such as hygienists. Atraumatic restorative treatment can be a useful tool to provide dental care for frail and fearful individuals who might not access dental treatment routinely.

A preliminary report of the cost-effectiveness of tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate elders

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of conventional treatment using partial dentures with functionally orientated treatment to replace missing teeth for partially dentate elders using a randomised controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, including the Republic of Ireland, the only publically funded treatment option offered to partially dentate older patients is a removable partial denture. However, evidence suggests that these removable prostheses are unpopular with patients and can potentially increase the risk of further dental disease and subsequent tooth loss.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourty-four partially dentate patients aged 65 years and older were recruited. Patients were randomly assigned to the two treatment arms of the study. The conventional treatment group received removable partial dentures to replace all missing natural teeth. The functionally orientated group was restored to a Shortened Dental Arch (SDA) of 10 occluding contacts using resin-bonded bridgework (RBB). The costs associated with each treatment were recorded. Effectiveness was measured in terms of the impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) using OHIP-14.

RESULTS: Both groups reported improvements in OHRQoL 1 month after completion of treatment. The conventional treatment group required 8.3 clinic visits as compared to 4.4 visits for the functionally orientated group. The mean total treatment time was 183 min 19 s for the conventional group vs. 124 min 8 s for the functionally orientated group. The average cost of treatment for the conventional group was 487.74 Euros compared to 356.20 Euros for the functional group.

CONCLUSIONS: Functionally orientated treatment was more cost-effective than conventional treatment in terms of treatment effect and opportunity costs to the patients' time.