Which biomarkers are predictive specifically for cardiovascular or for non-cardiovascular mortality in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

OBJECTIVE: To examine a panel of 28 biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality in a population-based cohort of men.

METHODS: Starting in 1979, middle-aged men in Caerphilly underwent detailed medical examination. Subsequently 2171 men were re-examined during 1989-1993, and fasting blood samples obtained from 1911 men (88%). Fibrinogen, viscosity and white cell count (WCC), routine biochemistry tests and lipids were analysed using fresh samples. Stored aliquots were later analysed for novel biomarkers. Statistical analysis of CVD and non-CVD mortality follow-up used competing risk Cox regression models with biomarkers in thirds tested at the 1% significance level after covariate adjustment.

RESULTS: During an average of 15.4years follow-up, troponin (subhazard ratio per third 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-1.99) and B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) (subhazard ratio per third 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) showed strong trends with CVD death but not with non-CVD death. WCC and fibrinogen showed similar weaker findings. Plasma viscosity, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated positively with both CVD death and non-CVD death while total cholesterol was associated positively with CVD death but negatively with non-CVD death. C-reactive protein (C-RP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP-4) and vitamin B6 were significantly associated only with non-CVD death, the last two negatively. Troponin, BNP and IL-6 showed evidence of diminishing associations with CVD mortality through follow-up.

CONCLUSION: Biomarkers for cardiac necrosis were strong, specific predictors of CVD mortality while many inflammatory markers were equally predictive of non-CVD mortality.

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Can Leakage Models Be More Efficient? Non-Linear Models in Side Channel Attacks

In the last decade, many side channel attacks have been published in academic literature detailing how to efficiently extract secret keys by mounting various attacks, such as differential or correlation power analysis, on cryptosystems. Among the most efficient and widely utilized leakage models involved in these attacks are the Hamming weight and distance models which give a simple, yet effective, approximation of the power consumption for many real-world systems. These leakage models reflect the number of bits switching, which is assumed proportional to the power consumption. However, the actual power consumption changing in the circuits is unlikely to be directly of that form. We, therefore, propose a non-linear leakage model by mapping the existing leakage model via a transform function, by which the changing power consumption is depicted more precisely, hence the attack efficiency can be improved considerably. This has the advantage of utilising a non-linear power model while retaining the simplicity of the Hamming weight or distance models. A modified attack architecture is then suggested to yield the correct key efficiently in practice. Finally, an empirical comparison of the attack results is presented.

Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia

The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia provides new data on the economic burden of NCDs in the country, and puts it in perspective by drawing a comparison with India and China. With this new addition to the series on the economics of NCDs, the World Economic Forum aims to advance the understanding of the expected economic output loss at the country level, particularly in countries in economic and epidemiological transition. The evidence presented provides a starting point in reorienting the dialogue on investing in healthy living and NCD prevention in Indonesia towards the view that a healthy population is an important factor for sustainable growth.

Non-thermal processes in coronae and beyond

This contribution summarizes the splinter session ``Non-thermal processes in coronae and beyond'' held at the Cool Stars 17 workshop in Barcelona in 2012. It covers new developments in high energy non-thermal effects in the Earth's exosphere, solar and stellar flares, the diffuse emission in star forming regions and reviews the state and the challenges of the underlying atomic databases.

Choosing to engage and choosing to persist: The role of non-specific factors in health-promoting activities

Objective
Non-specific factors play an important role in determining benefits from health-promoting activities. Previous studies have focussed on beneficial outcomes of motivation during engagement. There are two aims of this project. First, we investigated whether expectancy and intrinsic motivation influence people's decisions to engage with health-promoting activities in the first instance and then subsequently adhere to them. Second, we examined the effects of providing information on health-promoting activities as a method of influencing expectancy and intrinsic motivation.

Method
In two studies, participants were informed about a health-promoting activity (Study 1: A breathing exercise for well-being; Study 2: A gratitude exercise for smoking cessation) and told that it has either a ‘known’ or ‘unknown’ effectiveness. Participants were then given the opportunity to engage with the activity over the following days. Expectancy and intrinsic motivation were measured after reading the information and prior to engagement with the activity. Adherence to the activity was measured at follow-up.

Results
In both studies, intrinsic motivation positively predicted willingness to engage with the activities as well as subsequent adherence. Expectancy predicted adherence in Study 1 and choices to engage in Study 2, but not after controlling for intrinsic motivation. Describing the gratitude exercise as having a known effectiveness in Study 2 enhanced motivation and adherence to the activity.

Conclusions
The non-specific benefit brought by intrinsic motivation plays an important role in choosing to engage with health-promoting activities as well as subsequent adherence. Our results also show that simple statements about the potential benefits of a health-promoting activity can motivate engagement and adherence.

Non-linear electronic transport in Pt nanowires deposited by focused ion beam

Electrical transport and structural properties of platinum nanowires, deposited using the focussed ion beam method have been investigated. Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy reveals metal-rich grains (atomic composition 31% Pt and 50% Ga) in a largely non-metallic matrix of C, O and Si. Resistivity measurements (15-300 K) reveal a negative temperature coefficient with the room-temperature resistivity 80-300 times higher than that of bulk Pt. Temperature dependent current-voltage characteristics exhibit non-linear behaviour in the entire range investigated. The conductance spectra indicate increasing non-linearity with decreasing temperature, reaching 4% at 15 K. The observed electrical behaviour is explained in terms of a model for inter-grain tunnelling in disordered media, a mechanism that is consistent with the strongly disordered nature of the nanowires observed in the structure and composition analysis.

Non-indigenous marine macroalgae in native communities: a case study in the British Isles

It has traditionally been considered that areas with high natural species richness are likely to be more resistant to non-indigenous species than those with lower numbers of species. However, this theory has been the subject of a debate over the last decade, since some studies have shown the opposite trend. In the present study, a macroalgal survey was carried out at 24 localities in Northern Ireland and southern England, using a quadrat approach in the lower littoral. The two opposing hypotheses were tested (negative versus positive relationship between native and non-indigenous species richness) in this marine environment. The effect of the presence of 'impacts', potential sources of disturbance and species introduction (e.g. marina, harbour or aquaculture), was also tested. A positive relationship was found between the number of non-indigenous species and the native species richness at the three different scales tested (quadrats, sites and localities). At no scale did a richer native assemblage appear to restrict the establishment of introduced species. The analyses revealed greater species richness and different community composition, as well as more non-indigenous species, in southern England relative to Northern Ireland. The presence of the considered impacts had an effect on the community composition and species richness in southern England but not in Northern Ireland. Such impacts had no effect on the non-indigenous species richness in either area.

Protocolized versus non-protocolized weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill adult patients (Review)

BACKGROUND: Reducing weaning time is desirable in minimizing potential complications from mechanical ventilation. Standardized weaning protocols are purported to reduce time spent on mechanical ventilation. However, evidence supporting their use in clinical practice is inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of protocolized weaning from mechanical ventilation on the total duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults; ascertain differences between protocolized and non-protocolized weaning in terms of mortality, adverse events, quality of life, weaning duration, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS); and explore variation in outcomes by type of ICU, type of protocol and approach to delivering the protocol.

SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 1, 2010), MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1988 to 2010), CINAHL (1937 to 2010), LILACS (1982 to 2010), ISI Web of Science and ISI Conference Proceedings (1970 to 2010), Cambridge Scientific Abstracts (inception to 2010) and reference lists of articles. We did not apply language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials of protocolized weaning versus non-protocolized weaning from mechanical ventilation in critically ill adults.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. A priori subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed. We contacted study authors for additional information.

MAIN RESULTS: Eleven trials that included 1971 patients met the inclusion criteria. The total duration of mechanical ventilation geometric mean in the protocolized weaning group was on average reduced by 25% compared with the usual care group (N = 10 trials, 95% CI 9% to 39%, P = 0.006); weaning duration was reduced by 78% (N = 6 trials, 95% CI 31% to 93%, P = 0.009); and ICU LOS by 10% (N = 8 trials, 95% CI 2% to 19%, P = 0.02). There was significant heterogeneity among studies for total duration of mechanical ventilation (I(2) = 76%, P <0.01) and weaning duration (I(2) = 97%, P <0.01), which could not be explained by subgroup analyses based on type of unit or type of approach.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence of a reduction in the duration of mechanical ventilation, weaning duration and ICU LOS with use of standardized protocols, but there is significant heterogeneity among studies and an insufficient number of studies to investigate the source of this heterogeneity. Although some study authors suggest that organizational context may influence outcomes, these factors were not considered in all included studies and therefore could not be evaluated.

Protocolized versus non-protocolized weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill adult patients

Background: This is an update of a review last published in Issue 5, 2010, of The Cochrane Library. Reducing weaning time is desirable in minimizing potential complications from mechanical ventilation. Standardized weaning protocols are purported to reduce time spent on mechanical ventilation. However, evidence supporting their use in clinical practice is inconsistent. Objectives: The first objective of this review was to compare the total duration of mechanical ventilation of critically ill adults who were weaned using protocols versus usual (non-protocolized) practice.The second objective was to ascertain differences between protocolized and non-protocolized weaning in outcomes measuring weaning duration, harm (adverse events) and resource use (intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay, cost).The third objective was to explore, using subgroup analyses, variations in outcomes by type of ICU, type of protocol and approach to delivering the protocol (professional-led or computer-driven). Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library Issue 1, 2014), MEDLINE (1950 to January 2014), EMBASE (1988 to January 2014), CINAHL (1937 to January 2014), LILACS (1982 to January 2014), ISI Web of Science and ISI Conference Proceedings (1970 to February 2014), and reference lists of articles. We did not apply language restrictions. The original search was performed in January 2010 and updated in January 2014.Selection criteriaWe included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of protocolized weaning versus non-protocolized weaning from mechanical ventilation in critically ill adults. Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We performed a priori subgroup and sensitivity analyses. We contacted study authors for additional information. Main results: We included 17 trials (with 2434 patients) in this updated review. The original review included 11 trials. The total geometric mean duration of mechanical ventilation in the protocolized weaning group was on average reduced by 26% compared with the usual care group (N = 14 trials, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13% to 37%, P = 0.0002). Reductions were most likely to occur in medical, surgical and mixed ICUs, but not in neurosurgical ICUs. Weaning duration was reduced by 70% (N = 8 trials, 95% CI 27% to 88%, P = 0.009); and ICU length of stay by 11% (N = 9 trials, 95% CI 3% to 19%, P = 0.01). There was significant heterogeneity among studies for total duration of mechanical ventilation (I2 = 67%, P < 0.0001) and weaning duration (I2 = 97%, P < 0.00001), which could not be explained by subgroup analyses based on type of unit or type of approach. Authors' conclusions: There is evidence of reduced duration of mechanical ventilation, weaning duration and ICU length of stay with use of standardized weaning protocols. Reductions are most likely to occur in medical, surgical and mixed ICUs, but not in neurosurgical ICUs. However, significant heterogeneity among studies indicates caution in generalizing results. Some study authors suggest that organizational context may influence outcomes, however these factors were not considered in all included studies and could not be evaluated. Future trials should consider an evaluation of the process of intervention delivery to distinguish between intervention and implementation effects. There is an important need for further development and research in the neurosurgical population.

Beyond Attribution: Responsibility of Armed Non-State Actors for Reparations in Northern Ireland, Colombia and Uganda

This chapter explores the responsibility of armed non-state actors for reparations to victims. Traditionally international law has focused on the responsibility of the state, and more recently the responsibility of convicted individuals before the International Criminal Court, to provide reparations for international crimes. Yet despite the prevalence of internal armed conflict over the past few decades, there responsibility of armed groups for reparations has been neglected in international law. Although there is a tentative emerging basis for armed groups to provide reparations under international law, such developments have not yet crystallized into hard law. However, when considering the more substantive practice of states in Northern Ireland, Colombia and Uganda, a greater effort can be discerned in ensuring that such organizations are responsible for reparations. This paper finds that not only can armed non-state actors be held collectively responsible for reparations, but due to the growing number of internal armed conflict they can play an important role in ensuring the effectiveness of reparations in remedying victims’ harm. Yet, finding armed groups responsible for reparations is no panacea for accountability, due to the nature of armed conflicts, responsibility may not be distinct, but overlapping and joint, and such groups may face difficulties in meeting their obligations, thus requiring a holistic approach and subsidiary role for the state.

An Investigation Into Improving Off-Design Performance in a Turbocharger Turbine Utilizing Non-Radial Blading

Off-design performance now plays a vital role in the design decisions made for automotive turbocharger turbines. Of particular interest is extracting more energy at high pressure ratios and lower rotational speeds. In this region of operation the U/C value will be low and the rotor will experience high values of positive incidence at the inlet. The positive incidence causes flow to separate on the suction surface and produces high blade loading at inlet, which drives tip leakage. A CFD analysis has been carried out on a number of automotive turbines utilizing non-radial fibred blading. To help improve secondary flows yet meet stress requirements a number of designs have been investigated. The inlet blade angle has been modified in a number of ways. Firstly, the blading has been adjusted as to provide a constant back swept angle in the span wise direction. Using the results of the constant back swept blading studies, the back swept blade angle was then varied in the span wise direction. In addition to this, in an attempt to avoid an increase in stress, the effect of varying the leading edge profile of the blade was investigated. It has been seen that off-design performance is improved by implementing back swept blading at the inlet. Varying the inlet angle in the span wise direction provided more freedom for meeting stress requirements and reduces the negative impact on blade performance at the design point. The blade leading edge profile was seen to offer small improvements during off-design operation with minimal effects on stress within the rotor. However, due to the more pointed nature of the leading edge, the rotor was less tolerant to flow misalignment at the design point.