Temporal and statistical information in causal structure learning

Three experiments examined children’s and adults’ abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a three-variable mechanical system that operated probabilistically. Participants of all ages preferentially relied on the temporal pattern of events in their inferences, even if this conflicted with statistical information. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants observed a series of interventions on the system, which in these experiments operated deterministically. In Experiment 2, participants found it easier to use temporal pattern information than statistical information provided as a result of interventions. In Experiment 3, in which no temporal pattern information was provided, children from 6-7 years, but not younger children, were able to use intervention information to make causal chain judgments, although they had difficulty when the structure was a common cause. The findings suggest that participants, and children in particular, may find it more difficult to use statistical information than temporal pattern information because of its demands on information processing resources. However, there may also be an inherent preference for temporal information.

Genetic Evidence for a Causal Role of Obesity in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Obesity has been posited as an independent risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD), but establishing causality from observational data is problematic. We aimed to test whether obesity is causally related to DKD using Mendelian randomization, which exploits the random assortment of genes during meiosis. In 6,049 subjects with type 1 diabetes, we used a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 32 validated BMI loci as an instrument to test the relationship of BMI with macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or DKD defined as presence of macroalbuminuria or ESRD. We compared these results with cross-sectional and longitudinal observational associations. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a U-shaped relationship of BMI with development of macroalbuminuria, ESRD, or DKD over time. Cross-sectional observational analysis showed no association with overall DKD, higher odds of macroalbuminuria (for every 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI, odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), and lower odds of ESRD (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analysis showed a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI conferring an increased risk in macroalbuminuria (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, P = 0.001), ESRD (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72, P < 0.001), and DKD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51, P < 0.001). Our results provide genetic evidence for a causal link between obesity and DKD in type 1 diabetes. As obesity prevalence rises, this finding predicts an increase in DKD prevalence unless intervention should occur.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Children's use of interventions to learn causal structure

Children aged between 5 and 8 years freely intervened on a three-variable causal system, with their task being to discover whether it was a common-cause structure or one of two causal chains. From 6-7 years, children were able to use information from their interventions to correctly disambiguate the structure of a causal chain. We used a Bayesian model to examine children’s interventions on the system; this showed that with development children became more efficient in producing the interventions needed to disambiguate the causal structure and that the quality of interventions, as measured by their informativeness, improved developmentally. The latter measure was a significant predictor of children’s correct inferences about the causal structure. A second experiment showed that levels of performance were not reduced in a task in which children did not select and carry out interventions themselves, indicating no advantage for self-directed learning. However, children’s performance was not related to intervention quality in these circumstances, suggesting that children learn in a different way when they carry out interventions themselves.

Beyond Criminal Justice: An anthology of abolitionist papers presented to conferences of the European Group for the Study of Deviance and Social Control over the past decade

Beyond Criminal Justice presents a vision of a future without brutal, authoritarian and repressive penal regimes. Many of the papers brought together here have been unavailable for more than two decades. Their republication indicates not only their continuing theoretical importance to abolitionist studies but also how they provide important insights into the nature and legitimacy of criminal processes in the here and now. Contributors highlight the human consequences of the harms of imprisonment, evidencing the hurt, injury and damage of penal incarceration across a number of different countries in Europe. Focusing on penal power and prisoner contestation to such power, the moral and political crises of imprisonment are laid bare. The contributors to Beyond Criminal Justice explore the urgent need for a coherent, rational and morally and politically sophisticated theoretical basis for penal abolitionism. Advocating a utopian imagination and at the same time practical solutions already implemented in countries around Europe - alongside grappling with controversial debates such as abolitionist responses to rape and sexual violence - the book steps outside of common sense assumptions regarding 'crime', punishment and 'criminal justice'. Beyond Criminal Justice will be of interest to students of criminology, zemiology, sociology, penology and critical legal studies as well as anyone interested in rethinking the problem of 'crime' and challenging the logic of the penal rationale.

Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

Criminal Conversations: Rogues, Words and the World in the Work of Daniel Defoe

Even as Daniel Defoe's roguish protagonists notably Moll Flanders and Colonel Jack try to separate themselves from illicit itinerants, they are implicated further in deviance. Moll and Jack both embody and exploit ambiguous moral and spatial arrangements, and use hybrid linguistic formulations, all of which collocate the roguish and the reputable. By brilliantly realizing this interpenetration of words and worlds, Defoe problematises eighteenth-century efforts to demarcate the illicit and itinerant along the lines of space, rank, gender and language. Such efforts facilitated deviant mobility as much as they demonised it. Much scholarship has attended to Defoe's representations of criminality and poverty. This article develops such research to re-position him in a tradition of rogue-writing that stylishly problematises normative discriminatory practices.

Divergent Paths of Development: The Modern World-System and Democratization in South Africa and Zambia

This article examines whether a Modern World- Systems (MWS) perspective can provide an improved understanding of the processes of democratization in Africa (and other developing regions of the world) by conducting a comparative case study of South Africa and Zambia in the 1990s, examining the transitions to democracy and divergent processes of democratic consolidation in each country. Semiperipheral South Africa has, due to its more advantageous position in the world-system, been better equipped than peripheral Zambia to safeguard democracy against erosion and reversal. Th e central irony of the MWS is that the weakest states in the MWS can be pushed around by core powers and are more easily forced to democratize while at the same time they are least likely to possess the resources necessary for democratic consolidation. Semiperipheral states can maintain their independence vis-à-vis the core to a higher degree, but if the decision is made to undertake a democratic transition they are more likely to possess the resources necessary for successful consolidation. Th e MWS perspective allows for an improved understanding of the causal pathway of how position in the MWS translates into the ability to consolidate democracy than does approaches that emphasize domestic factors.

Human Papillomavirus and Oral Cancer: the International Agency for Research on Cancer Multicenter Study

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV), the causal agent of cervical cancer, appears to be involved in the etiology of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx. To investigate these associations, we conducted a multicenter case-control study of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx in nine countries. Methods: We recruited 1670 case patients (1415 with cancer of the oral cavity and 255 with cancer of the oropharynx) and 1732 control subjects and obtained an interview, oral exfoliated cells, and blood from all participants and fresh biopsy specimens from case patients. HPV DNA was detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies against HPV16 L1, E6, and E7 proteins in plasma were detected with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Multivariable models were used for case-control and case-case comparisons. Results: HPV DNA was detected in biopsy specimens of 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.5% to 5.3%) of 766 cancers of the oral cavity with valid PCR results and 18.3% (95% CI=12.0% to 24.7%) of 142 cancers of the oropharynx (oropharynx and tonsil combined) with valid PCR results. HPV DNA in cancer biopsy specimens was detected less frequently among tobacco smokers and paan chewers and more frequently among subjects who reported more than one sexual partner or who practiced oral sex. HPV16 DNA was found in 94.7% of HPV DNA-positive case patients. HPV DNA in exfoliated cells was not associated with cancer risk or with HPV DNA detection in biopsy specimens. Antibodies against HPV16 L1 were associated with risk for cancers of the oral cavity (odds ratio [OR]=1.5, 95% CI=1.1 to 2.1) and the oropharynx (OR=3.5, 95% CI=2.1 to 5.9). Antibodies against HPV16 E6 or E7 were also associated with risk for cancers of the oral cavity (OR=2.9, 95% CI=1.7 to 4.8) and the oropharynx (OR=9.2, 95% CI=4.8 to 17.7). Conclusions: HPV appears to play an etiologic role in many cancers of the oropharynx and possibly a small subgroup of cancers of the oral cavity. The most common HPV type in genital cancers (HPV16) was also the most common in these tumors. The mechanism of transmission of HPV to the oral cavity warrants further investigation.

Myeloperoxidase G-463A polymorphism and Alzheimer's disease in the ApoEurope study

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia in the elderly. Epidemiological and molecular genetic studies have shown the existence of several genes associated with increased risk of AD, the major genetic susceptibility locus coding for apolipoprotein E (apoE). A polymorphism in the myeloperoxidase gene (MPO) has previously been associated with AD susceptibility. However, results in the literature are controversial and seem to be dependent on several factors such as gender, apoE polymorphism or the genetic structure of the population. We investigated MPO G-463A and apoE polymorphism in 265 cases and 246 controls from the ApoEurope Study. In females, we found a significant association between MPO genotype and AD (P=0.034), GG genotype frequency being lower in cases (52.4%) as compared to controls (64.2%). In men, there was no significant effect of MPO polymorphism. No interaction was found between MPO polymorphism and apoE epsilon 4 allele. In conclusion, the G-463A polymorphism of MPO was statistically associated with AD in a gender-specific manner. However, given the low significance of P value we suggest no causal effect of the MPO gene in AD, as also evidenced in a recent meta-analysis. Our results support the hypothesis of a possible linkage disequilibrium between the MPO G-463A gene polymorphism and another functional variant involved in AD.

Integrating Aircraft Cost Modelling into Conceptual Design

The article presents cost modeling results from the application of the Genetic-Causal cost modeling principle. Industrial results from redesign are also presented to verify the opportunity for early concept cost optimization by using Genetic-Causal cost drivers to guide the conceptual design process for structural assemblies. The acquisition cost is considered through the modeling of the recurring unit cost and non-recurring design cost. The operational cost is modeled relative to acquisition cost and fuel burn for predominately metal or composites designs. The main contribution of this study is the application of the Genetic-Causal principle to the modeling of cost, helping to understand how conceptual design parameters impact on cost, and linking that to customer requirements and life cycle cost.

Tight junctional abnormality in multiple sclerosis white matter affects all calibres of vessel and is associated with blood-brain barrier leakage and active demyelination

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) hyperpermeability in multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with lesion pathogenesis and has been linked to pathology in microvascular tight junctions (TJs). This study quantifies the uneven distribution of TJ pathology and its association with BBB leakage. Frozen sections from plaque and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) in 14 cases were studied together with white matter from six neurological and five normal controls. Using single and double immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy, the TJ-associated protein zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1) was examined across lesion types and tissue categories, and in relation to fibrinogen leakage. Confocal image data sets were analysed for 2198 MS and 1062 control vessels. Significant differences in the incidence of TJ abnormalities were detected between the different lesion types in MS and between MS and control white matter. These were frequent in oil-red O (ORO)+ active plaques, affecting 42% of vessel segments, but less frequent in ORO- inactive plaques (23%), NAWM (13%), and normal (3.7%) and neurological controls (8%). A similar pattern was found irrespective of the vessel size, supporting a causal role for diffusible inflammatory mediators. In both NAWM and inactive lesions, dual labelling showed that vessels with the most TJ abnormality also showed most fibrinogen leakage. This was even more pronounced in active lesions, where 41% of vessels in the highest grade for TJ alteration showed severe leakage. It is concluded that disruption of TJs in MS, affecting both paracellular and transcellular paths, contributes to BBB leakage. TJ abnormality and BBB leakage in inactive lesions suggests either failure of TJ repair or a continuing pathological process. In NAWM, it suggests either pre-lesional change or secondary damage. Clinically inapparent TJ pathology has prognostic implications and should be considered when planning disease-modifying therapy

The Sustainability Balanced Scorecard. Linking Sustainability Management to Business Strategy.

The Balanced Scorecard of Kaplan and Norton is a management tool that supports the successful implementation of corporate strategies. It has been discussed and considered widely in both practice and research. By linking operational and non-financial corporate activities with causal chains to the firm's long-term strategy, the Balanced Scorecard supports the alignment and management of all corporate activities according to their strategic relevance. The Balanced Scorecard makes it possible to take into account non-monetary strategic success factors that significantly impact the economic success of a business. The Balanced Scorecard is thus a promising starting-point to also incorporate environmental and social aspects into the main management system of a firm. Sustainability management with the Balanced Scorecard helps to overcome the shortcomings of conventional approaches to environmental and social management systems by integrating the three pillars of sustainability into a single and overarching strategic management tool. After a brief discussion of the different possible forms of a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard the article takes a closer look at the process and steps of formulating a Sustainability Balanced Scorecard for a business unit. Before doing so, the basic conventional approach of the Balanced Scorecard and its suitability for sustainability management will be outlined in brief.

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.