ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Weather Prognostics in Anglo-Saxon England

Prognostics concerning the day of the week on which kalendae ianuariae and Christmas Day fall, commonly known as the Revelatio Esdrae , purport to be a set of prophecies by the Biblical Esdras. They make predictions about the weather and other natural phenomena for the year to come, and they then extend their predictions to the field of human affairs. A remarkable number of copies of the Revelatio appear in English manuscripts from the tenth to the twelfth centuries. Some of these versions have been attributed to Bede and Abbo of Fleury as part of their computus works.

Both R. M. Liuzza and L. S. Chardonnens point out the frequent occurrence of the Revelatio in religious and scientific manuscripts and therefore reject the label of folklore, stressing instead the probable monastic origin of this prognostication. This study will provide the first complete collation and analysis of the surviving exemplars, to give as full an idea as possible of their circumstances of composition, their transmission, and their relationship to one another. It will consider how the Revelatio Esdrae was copied and used in Anglo-Saxon England, the audience to which it was addressed, and whether any conclusion can be drawn from its appearance in particular manuscripts, alongside certain other texts.

The regular occurrence of the Revelatio along with computistical material supports the case for its monastic origin and learned nature. Such a text would have been a helpful handbook to be used by monks and priests, and was among the standard holdings of continental and Anglo-Saxon monasteries and scriptoria, giving further proof of the monks’ intellectual eclecticism and their knowledge of the kinds of continental literature from which this text derives.

Experimental Investigation of Stretch Blow Molding, Part 2: Analysis of Process Variables, Blowing Kinematics, and Bottle Properties

The work presented in this paper takes advantage of newly developed instrumentation suitable for in process monitoring of an industrial stretch blow molding machine. The instrumentation provides blowing pressure and stretch rod force histories along with the kinematics of polymer contact with the mould wall. A Design of Experiments pattern was used to qualitatively relate machine inputs with these process parameters and the thickness distribution of stretch blow molded PET (polyethylene terephtalate) bottles. Material slippage at the mold wall and thickness distribution is also discussed in relation to machine inputs. The key process indicators defined have great potential for use in a closed loop process control system and for validation of process simulations.

Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland

Recent cold winters and prolonged periods of low wind speeds have prompted concerns about the increasing penetration of wind generation in the Irish and other northern European power systems. On the combined Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland system there was in excess of 1.5 GW of installed wind power in January 2010. As the penetration of these variable, non-dispatchable generators increases, power systems are becoming more sensitive to weather events on the supply side as well as on the demand side. In the temperate climate of Ireland, sensitivity of supply to weather is mainly due to wind variability while demand sensitivity is driven by space heating or cooling loads. The interplay of these two weather-driven effects is of particular concern if demand spikes driven by low temperatures coincide with periods of low winds. In December 2009 and January 2010 Ireland experienced a prolonged spell of unusually cold conditions. During much of this time, wind generation output was low due to low wind speeds. The impacts of this event are presented as a case study of the effects of weather extremes on power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable generation.

Impact of weather conditions on electric vehicle performance

Seasonal and day-to-day variations in travel behaviour and performance of private passenger vehicles can be partially explained by changes in weather conditions. Likewise, in the electricity sector, weather affects energy demand. The impact of weather conditions on private passenger vehicle performance, usership statistics and travel behaviour has been studied for conventional, internal combustion engine, vehicles. Similarly, weather-driven variability in electricity demand and generation has been investigated widely. The aim of these analyses in both sectors is to improve energy efficiency, reduce consumption in peak hours and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential effects of seasonal weather variations on electric vehicle usage have not yet been investigated. In Ireland the government has set a target requiring 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet to be powered by electricity by 2020 to meet part of its European Union obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy efficiency. This paper fills this knowledge gap by compiling some of the published information available for internal combustion engine vehicles and applying the lessons learned and results to electric vehicles with an analysis of historical weather data in Ireland and electricity market data in a number of what-if scenarios. Areas particularly impacted by weather conditions are battery performance, energy consumption and choice of transportation mode by private individuals.

Roche tomography of cataclysmic variables - V. A high-latitude star-spot on RU Pegasi

We present Roche tomograms of the secondary star in the dwarf nova system RU Pegasi derived from blue and red arm ISIS data taken on the 4.2-m William Herschel Telescope. We have applied the entropy landscape technique to determine the system parameters and obtained component masses of M1 = 1.06 Msun, M2 = 0.96 Msun, an orbital inclination angle of i = 43 degrees, and an optimal systemic velocity of gamma = 7 km/s. These are in good agreement with previously published values. Our Roche tomograms of the secondary star show prominent irradiation of the inner Lagrangian point due to illumination by the disc and/or bright spot, which may have been enhanced as RU Peg was in outburst at the time of our observations.We find that this irradiation pattern is axi-symmetric and confined to regions of the star which have a direct view of the accretion regions. This is in contrast to previous attempts to map RU Peg which suggested that the irradiation pattern was non-symmetric and extended beyond the terminator. We also detect additional inhomogeneities in the surface distribution of stellar atomic absorption that we ascribe to the presence of a large star-spot. This spot is centred at a latitude of about 82 degrees and covers approximately 4 per cent of the total surface area of the secondary. In keeping with the high latitude spots mapped on the cataclysmic variables AE Aqr and BV Cen, the spot on RU Peg also appears slightly shifted towards the trailing hemisphere of the star. Finally, we speculate that early mapping attempts which indicated non-symmetric irradiation patterns which extended beyond the terminator of CV donors could possibly be explained by a superposition of symmetric heating and a large spot.

Contribution of process variables to the entrapment efficiency of propranolol hydrochloride within ethylcellulose microspheres prepared by the solvent evaporation method as evaluated using a factorial design

The effects of the process variables, pH of aqueous phase, rate of addition of organic, polymeric, drug-containing phase to aqueous phase, organic:aqueous phase volume ratio and aqueous phase temperature on the entrapment of propranolol hydrochloride in ethylcellulose (N4) microspheres prepared by the solvent evaporation method were examined using a factorial design. The observed range of drug entrapment was 1.43 +/- 0.02%w/w (pH 6, 25 degrees C, phase volume ratio 1:10, fast rate of addition) to 16.63 +/- 0.92%w/w (pH 9, 33 degrees C, phase volume ratio 1:10, slow rate of addition) which corresponded to mean entrapment efficiencies of 2.86 and 33.26, respectively. Increased pH, increased temperature and decreased rate of addition significantly enhanced entrapment efficiency. However, organic:aqueous phase volume ratio did not significantly affect drug entrapment. Statistical interactions were observed between pH and rate of addition, pH and temperature, and temperature and rate of addition. The observed interactions involving pH are suggested to be due to the abilities of increased temperature and slow rate of addition to sufficiently enhance the solubility of dichloromethane in the aqueous phase, which at pH 9, but not pH 6, allows partial polymer precipitation prior to drug partitioning into the aqueous phase. The interaction between temperature and rate of addition is due to the relative lack of effect of increased temperature on drug entrapment following slow rate of addition of the organic phase. In comparison to the effects of pH on drug entrapment, the contributions of the other physical factors examined were limited.

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF SOME PROCESS VARIABLES ON THE MICROENCAPSULATION OF PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE BY THE SOLVENT EVAPORATION METHOD

The effects of four process factors: pH, emulsifier (gelatin) concentration, mixing and batch, on the % w/w entrapment of propranolol hydrochloride in ethylcellulose microcapsules prepared by the solvent evaporation process were examined using a factorial design. In this design the minimum % w/w entrapments of propranolol hydrochloride were observed whenever the external aqueous phase contained 1.5% w/v gelatin at pH 6.0 (0.71-0.91% w/w) whereas maximum entrapments occurred whenever the external aqueous phase was composed of 0.5% w/v gelatin at pH 9.0,(8.9-9.1% w/w). The theoretical maximum loading was 50% w/w. Statistical evaluation of the results by analysis of variance showed that emulsifer (gelatin) concentration and pH, but not mixing and batch significantly affected entrapment. An interaction between pH and gelatin concentration was observed in the factorial design which was accredited to the greater effect of gelatin concentration on % w/w entrapment at pH 9.0 than at pH 6.0. Maximum theoretical entrapment was achieved by increasing the pH of the external phase to 12.0. Marked increases in drug entrapment were observed whenever the pH of the external phase exceeded the pK(2) of propranolol hydrochloride. It was concluded that pH, and hence ionisation, was the greatest determinant of entrapment of propranolol hydrochloride into microcapsules prepared by the solvent evaporation process.

An investigation of the influence of process and formulation variables on mechanical properties of high shear granules using design of experiment

Being able to predict the properties of granules from the knowledge of the process and formulation variables is what most industries are striving for. This research uses experimental design to investigate the effect of process variables and formulation variables on mechanical properties of pharmaceutical granules manufactured from a classical blend of lactose and starch using hydroxypropyl cellulose (HPC) as the binder. The process parameters investigated were granulation time and impeller speed whilst the formulation variables were starch-to-lactose ratio and HPC concentration. The granule properties investigated include granule packing coefficient and granule strength. The effect of some components of the formulation on mechanical properties would also depend on the process variables used in granulation process. This implies that by subjecting the same formulation to different process conditions results in products with different properties. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.