Modelling the response of fresh groundwater to climate and vegetation changes in coral islands

In coral islands, groundwater is a crucial freshwater resource for terrestrial life, including human water supply. Response of the freshwater lens to expected climate changes and subsequent vegetation alterations is quantified for Grande Glorieuse, a low-lying coral island in the Western Indian Ocean. Distributed models of recharge, evapotranspiration and saltwater phytotoxicity are integrated into a variable-density groundwater model to simulate the evolution of groundwater salinity. Model results are assessed against field observations including groundwater and geophysical measurements. Simulations show the major control currently exerted by the vegetation with regards to the lens morphology and the high sensitivity of the lens to climate alterations, impacting both quantity and salinity. Long-term changes in mean sea level and climatic conditions (rainfall and evapotranspiration) are predicted to be responsible for an average increase in salinity approaching 140 % (+8 kg m-3) when combined. In low-lying areas with high vegetation density, these changes top +300 % (+10 kg m-3). However, due to salinity increase and its phytotoxicity, it is shown that a corollary drop in vegetation activity can buffer the alteration of fresh groundwater. This illustrates the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics to study groundwater in coral islands.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

The Holocene vegetation cover of Britain and Ireland: overcoming problems of scale and discerning patterns of openness

The vegetation of Europe has undergone substantial changes during the course of the Holocene epoch, resulting from range expansion of plants following climate amelioration, competition between taxa and disturbance through anthropogenic activities. Much of the detail of this pattern is understood from
decades of pollen analytical work across Europe, and this understanding has been used to address questions relating to vegetation-climate feedback, biogeography and human impact. Recent advances in modelling the relationship between pollen and vegetation now make it possible to transform pollen
proportions into estimates of vegetation cover at both regional and local spatial scales, using the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA), i.e. the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) and the LOVE (LOcal VEgetation) models. This paper presents the compilation and analysis of 73 pollen stratigraphies from the British Isles, to assess the application of the LRA and describe the pattern of landscape/woodland openness (i.e. the cover of low herb and bushy vegetation) through the Holocene. The results show that multiple small sites can be used as an effective replacement for a single large site for the reconstruction of regional vegetation cover. The REVEALS vegetation estimates imply that the British Isles had a greater degree of landscape/woodland openness at the regional scale than areas on the European mainland. There is considerable spatial bias in the British Isles dataset towards wetland areas and uplands, which may explain higher estimates of landscape openness compared with Europe. Where multiple estimates of regional vegetation are available from within the same region inter-regional differences are greater than intra-regional differences, supporting the use of the REVEALS model to the estimation of regional vegetation from pollen data.

Later prehistoric vegetation dynamics and Bronze Age agriculture at Hobbister, Orkney, Scotland

The Bronze Age in Britain was a time of major social and cultural changes, reflected in the division of the landscape into field systems and the establishment of new belief systems and ritual practices. Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain these changes, and assessment of many of them is dependent on the availability of detailed palaeoenvironmental data from the sites concerned. This paper explores the development of a later prehistoric landscape in Orkney, where a Bronze Age field system and an apparently ritually-deposited late Bronze Age axe head are located in an area of deep blanket peat from which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental sequences have been recovered. There is no indication that the field system was constructed to facilitate agricultural intensification, and it more likely reflects a cultural response to social fragmentation associated with a more dispersed settlement pattern. There is evidence for wetter conditions during the later Bronze Age, and the apparent votive deposit may reflect the efforts of the local population to maintain community integrity during a time of perceptible environmental change leading to loss of farmland. The study emphasises the advantages of close integration of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data for interpretation of prehistoric human activity. The palaeoenvironmental data also provide further evidence for the complexity of prehistoric woodland communities in Orkney, hinting at greater diversity than is often assumed. Additionally, differing dates for woodland decline in the two sequences highlight the dangers of over-extrapolation from trends observed in a single pollen profile, even at a very local scale.

The latest LGM culmination of the Garda Glacier (Italian Alps) and the onset of glacial termination. Age of glacial collapse and vegetation chronosequence

In the deglacial sequence of the largest end moraine system of the Italian Alps, we focused on the latest culmination of the Last Glacial Maximum, before a sudden downwasting of the piedmontane lobe occupying the modern lake basin. We obtained a robust chronology for this culmination and for the subsequent deglacial history by cross-radiocarbon dating of a proximal fluvioglacial plain and of a deglacial continuous lake sedimentation. We used reworked dinocysts to locate sources of glacial abrasion and to mark the input of glacial meltwater until depletion. The palynological record from postglacial lake sediments provided the first vegetation chronosequence directly reacting to the early Lateglacial withdrawal so far documented in the Alps.

Glacier collapse occurred soon after 17.46 +/- 0.2 ka cal BP, which is, the Manerba advance culmination. Basin deglaciation of several overdeepened foreland piedmont lakes on southern and northern sides of the Alps appears to be synchronous at millennial scale and near-synchronous with large-scale glacial retreat at global scale. The pioneering succession shows a first afforestation step at a median modeled age of 64 years after deglaciation, while rapid tree growth lagged 7 centuries. Between 16.4 +/- 0.16 and 15.5 +/- 0.16 ka cal BP, a regressive phase interrupted forest growth marking a Lateglacial phase of continental-dry climate predating GI-1. This event, spanning the most advanced phases of North-Atlantic H1, is consistently radiocarbon-framed at three deglacial lake records so far investigated on the Italian side of the Alps. Relationships with the Gschnitz stadial from the Alpine record of Lateglacial advances are discussed

Does chemical composition of individual Scots pine trees determine the biodiversity of their associated ground vegetation?

Despite plant secondary metabolites being major determinants of species interactions and ecosystem processes, their role in the maintenance of biodiversity has received little attention. In order to investigate the relationship between chemical and biological diversity in a natural ecosystem, we considered the impact of chemical diversity in individual Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris) on species richness of associated ground vegetation. Scots pine trees show substantial genetically determined constitutive variation between individuals in concentrations of a group of secondary metabolites, the monoterpenes. When the monoterpenes of particular trees were assessed individually, there was no relationship with species richness of associated ground flora. However, the chemical diversity of monoterpenes of individual trees was significantly positively associated with the species richness of the ground vegetation beneath each tree, mainly the result of an effect among the non-woody vascular plants. This correlation suggests that the chemical diversity of the ecosystem dominant species has an important role in shaping the biodiversity of the associated plant community. The extent and significance of this effect, and its underlying processes require further investigation.

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.

Impacts of culling and exclusion of browsers on vegetation recovery across New Zealand forests

Introduced browsing animals negatively impact New Zealand's indigenous ecosystems. Eradicating introduced browsers is currently unfeasible at large scales, but culling since the 1960s has successfully reduced populations to a fraction of their earlier sizes. Here we ask whether culling of ungulates has allowed populations of woody plant species to recover across New Zealand forests. Using 73 pairs of permanent fenced exclosure and unfenced control plots, we found rapid increases in sapling densities within exclosures located in disturbed forests, particularly if a seedling bank was already present. Recovery was slower in thinning stands and hampered by dense fern cover. We inferred ungulate diet preference from species recovery rates inside exclosures to test whether culling increased abundance of preferred species across a national network of 574 unfenced permanent forest plots. Across this network, saplings were observed irrespective of their preference to ungulates in the 1970s, but preferred species were rarer within disturbed sites in the 1990s after long-term culling and despite nationwide increases in sapling densities. This indicates that preferred species are relatively heavily affected by browsing after culling, presumably because remaining animals will increase consumption of preferred species as competition is reduced. Our results clearly suggest that culling will not return preferred plants to the landscape immediately, even given suitable conditions for regeneration. Complete removal of ungulates rather than simply reducing their densities may be required for recovery in heavily browsed temperate forests, but since this is only feasible at small spatial scales, management efforts must target sites of high conservation value. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.

Climate drives temporal replacement and nested‐resultant richness patterns of Scottish coastal vegetation

Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we investigate temporal replacement and nestedness patterns of coastal grassland species over a 34-yr time period. We aim to 1) understand the influence of two potentially pivotal processes (climate and land-use changes) on landscape-scale (5 × 5 km) temporal replacement and nestedness patterns, and 2) investigate whether patterns from one β-diversity component can mask observable patterns in the other.

We summarised key aspects of climate driven macro-ecological variation as measures of variance, long-term trends, between-year similarity and extremes, for three important climatic predictors (minimum temperature, water-balance and growing degree-days). Shifts in landscape-scale heterogeneity, a proxy of land-use change, was summarised as a spatial multiple-site dissimilarity measure. Together, these climatic and spatial predictors were used in a multi-model inference framework to gauge the relative contribution of each on temporal replacement and nestedness patterns.

Temporal β-diversity patterns were reasonably well explained by climate change but weakly explained by changes in landscape-scale heterogeneity. Climate was shown to have a greater influence on temporal nestedness than replacement patterns over our study period, linking nestedness patterns, as a result of imbalanced gains and losses, to climatic warming and extremes respectively. Important climatic predictors (i.e. growing degree-days) of temporal β-diversity were also identified, and contrasting patterns between the two β-diversity components revealed.

Results suggest climate influences plant species recruitment and establishment processes of Scotland's coastal grasslands, and while species extinctions take time, they are likely to be facilitated by climatic perturbations. Our findings also highlight the importance of distinguishing between different components of β-diversity, disentangling contrasting patterns than can mask one another.