Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Persistent negative effects of pesticides on biodiversity and biological control potential on European farmland

During the last 50 years, agricultural intensification has caused many wild plant and animal species to go extinct regionally or nationally and has profoundly changed the functioning of agro-ecosystems. Agricultural intensification has many components, such as loss of landscape elements, enlarged farm and field sizes and larger inputs of fertilizer and pesticides. However, very little is known about the relative contribution of these variables to the large-scale negative effects on biodiversity. In this study, we disentangled the impacts of various components of agricultural intensification on species diversity of wild plants, carabids and ground-nesting farmland birds and on the biological control of aphids.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Living in Exospace: ISS and Discovery 1

The concept of exospace, as an alternative liveable structure, is discussed in this article to improve our comprehension of architectural space. Exospace is a man-made space designed for living beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Humankind has developed outerspace technologies to build the International Space Station as a significant experiment in exospace design. The ISS is a new building type for scientific experiments and for testing human existence in outerspace.

A fictional example of exospace, on the other hand, is Discovery 1 spaceship in Stanley Kubrick’s legendary science fiction film 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968). It is a ship travelling to Jupiter with a crew of five astronauts and HAL9000, the artificial intelligence controlling the ship. I will first discuss the ISS, and the space stations built before, from a spatial point of view. A spatial study of Discovery 1 will follow. Finally, through an understanding of exospace, I will return to architectural space with a critical appraisal. The comparison of architectural space with exospace will add to the discussion of space theories from a technological approach.

Exospace creates an alternative reality to architectural space. Architects cannot consider exospaces without comparing them with the spaces they design on Earth. The different context of outerspace shows that a work of terrestrial architecture is very much dependent on its context. A building is not an ‘object’ that can be located anywhere; it is designed for its site. Architectural space is a real, material, continuous, static and extroverted habitable space designed for and used in the specific physical context of Earth. The existence of exospace in science opens a new discussion in architectural theory, both terrestrial and extraterrestrial.

Assessing the sensitivity and specificity of fish community indicators to management action

We assessed ten trophodynamic indicators of ecosystem status for their sensitivity and specificity to fishing management using a size-resolved multispecies fish community model. The responses of indicators to fishing depended on effort and the size selectivity (sigmoid or Gaussian) of fishing mortality. The highest specificity against sigmoid (trawl-like) size selection was seen from inverse fishing pressure and the large fish indicator, but for Gaussian size selection, the large species indicator was most specific. Biomass, mean trophic level of the community and of the catch, and fishing in balance had the lowest specificity against both size selectivities. Length-based indicators weighted by biomass, rather than abundance, were more sensitive and specific to fishing pressure. Most indicators showed a greater response to sigmoid than Gaussian size selection. Indicators were generally more sensitive at low levels of effort because of nonlinear sensitivity in trophic cascades to fishing mortality. No single indicator emerged as superior in all respects, so given available data, multiple complementary indicators are recommended for community monitoring in the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

Arsenic uptake and speciation in the rootless duckweed Wolffia globosa

Duckweeds are a common macrophyte in paddy and aquatic environments. Here, we investigated arsenic (As) accumulation, speciation and tolerance of the rootless duckweed Wolffia globosa and its potential for As phytofiltration.

When grown with 1 mu M arsenate, W. globosa accumulated two to 10 times more As than four other duckweed or Azolla species tested. W. globosa was able to accumulate > 1000 mg As kg(-1) in frond dry weight (DW), and tolerate up to 400 mg As kg-1 DW. At the low concentration range, uptake rate was similar for arsenate and arsenite, but at the high concentration range, arsenite was taken up at a faster rate.

Arsenite was the predominant As species (c. 90% of the total extractable As) in both arsenate-and arsenite-exposed duckweed. W. globosa was more resistant to external arsenate than arsenite, but showed a similar degree of tolerance internally. W. globosa decreased arsenate in solution rapidly, but also effluxed arsenite.

Wolffia globosa is a strong As accumulator and an interesting model plant to study As uptake and metabolism because of the lack of a root-to-frond translocation

Stock-recruitment relations controlled by feeding interactions alone

Stock-recruitment (S-R) relationships are the centrepiece of fisheries management aimed at achieving maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Here we consider the possibility that the density dependence evident in S-R relations is controlled by feeding interactions alone. We simulate a food-web model with dynamic representations of intra- and interspecific size structure and a linear relation between food intake and hatchling production of adults. Population sizes of individual stocks are modified by imposing additional mortality. The predominant functional forms and the steepness of resulting S-R relationships agree well with observations. We conclude that recruitment is plausibly regulated by feeding interactions alone.

Arcellacea (Testate Amoebae) as Bio-indicators of Road Salt Contamination in Lakes

Winter deicing operations occur extensively in mid- to high-latitude metropolitan regions around the world and result in a significant reduction in road accidents. Deicing salts can, however, pose a major threat to water quality and aquatic organisms. In this paper we examine the utility of Arcellacea (testate amoebae) for monitoring lakes that have become contaminated by winter deicing salts, particularly sodium chloride. We analysed 50 sediment samples and salt-related water-property variables (chloride concentrations; conductivity) from 15 lakes in the Greater Toronto Area and adjacent areas of southern Ontario, Canada. The sampled lakes included lakes in proximity to major highways and suburban roads, and control lakes in forested settings away from road influences. Samples from the most contaminated lakes, with chloride concentrations in excess of 400 mg/l and conductivities of >800 μS/cm, were dominated by species typically found in brackish and/or inhospitable lake environments and by lower faunal diversities (lowest Shannon Diversity Index values) than samples with lower readings. Q-R-mode cluster analysis and Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) resulted in the recognition of four assemblage groupings. These reflect varying levels of salt contamination in the study lakes, along with other local influences, including nutrient loading. The response to nutrients can, however, be isolated if the planktic eutrophic indicator species Cucurbitella tricuspis is removed from the counts. The findings show that the group have considerable potential for biomonitoring in salt-contaminated lakes, and through application to lake sediment cores, may provide significant insights into long-term benthic community health, which is integral for remedial efforts.

Tephra from andesitic Shiveluch volcano, Kamchatka, NW Pacific: chronology of explosive eruptions and geochemical fingerprinting of volcanic glass

The ~16-ka-long record of explosive eruptions from Shiveluch volcano (Kamchatka, NW Pacific) is refined using geochemical fingerprinting of tephra and radiocarbon ages. Volcanic glass from 77 prominent Holocene tephras and four Late Glacial tephra packages was analyzed by electron microprobe. Eruption ages were estimated using 113 radiocarbon dates for proximal tephra sequence. These radiocarbon dates were combined with 76 dates for regional Kamchatka marker tephra layers into a single Bayesian framework taking into account the stratigraphic ordering within and between the sites. As a result, we report ~1,700 high-quality glass analyses from Late Glacial–Holocene Shiveluch eruptions of known ages. These define the magmatic evolution of the volcano and provide a reference for correlations with distal fall deposits. Shiveluch tephras represent two major types of magmas, which have been feeding the volcano during the Late Glacial–Holocene time: Baidarny basaltic andesites and Young Shiveluch andesites. Baidarny tephras erupted mostly during the Late Glacial time (~16–12.8 ka BP) but persisted into the Holocene as subordinate admixture to the prevailing Young Shiveluch andesitic tephras (~12.7 ka BP–present). Baidarny basaltic andesite tephras have trachyandesite and trachydacite (SiO₂ < 71.5 wt%) glasses. The Young Shiveluch andesite tephras have rhyolitic glasses (SiO₂ > 71.5 wt%). Strongly calc-alkaline medium-K characteristics of Shiveluch volcanic glasses along with moderate Cl, CaO and low P₂O₅ contents permit reliable discrimination of Shiveluch tephras from the majority of other large Holocene tephras of Kamchatka. The Young Shiveluch glasses exhibit wave-like variations in SiO₂ contents through time that may reflect alternating periods of high and low frequency/volume of magma supply to deep magma reservoirs beneath the volcano. The compositional variability of Shiveluch glass allows geochemical fingerprinting of individual Shiveluch tephra layers which along with age estimates facilitates their use as a dating tool in paleovolcanological, paleoseismological, paleoenvironmental and archeological studies. Electronic tables accompanying this work offer a tool for statistical correlation of unknown tephras with proximal Shiveluch units taking into account sectors of actual tephra dispersal, eruption size and expected age. Several examples illustrate the effectiveness of the new database. The data are used to assign a few previously enigmatic wide-spread tephras to particular Shiveluch eruptions. Our finding of Shiveluch tephras in sediment cores in the Bering Sea at a distance of ~600 km from the source permits re-assessment of the maximum dispersal distances for Shiveluch tephras and provides links between terrestrial and marine paleoenvironmental records.

Hunting in a Tropical Rainforest:Evidence from the Terminal Pleistocene at Lobang Hangus, Niah Caves, Sarawak

The Terminal Pleistocene zooarchaeological evidence from Lobang Hangus, an east-facing entrance to the Niah Cave complex, provides unique insights into the hunting habits of the human inhabitants of this cave. The composition and structure of the vertebrate accumulation indicates that a variety of locally available terrestrial, arboreal and aquatic taxa were being exploited, The age structure of the principal predated species, the presence of bone points and evidence from modern rainforest hunting combine to suggest that some form of projectile weaponry as well as trapping technologies were probably being employed by the hunters at Niah before the end of the Pleistocene. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

John Birks: Pioneer in quantitative palaeoecology

We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

The Dynamics of Male and Female Street Prostitution in Manchester, England

This article examines male street prostitution in Manchester, England, and draws some comparisons to its female counterpart in this city. While the two sectors have some important similarities, we also find significant differences in the physical and social ecology of the places in which they work, in their behavior patterns, and in individuals’ demographics and work experiences. We find that ecological dif- ferences between the male and female markets have a major impact on partici- pants’ work practices, opportunities, and integration into the local community. The data also indicate that it is incorrect to speak of a monolithic male street market or sector in Manchester because sellers shift between settings (street, bar, and escorting), unlike the female street sector. We also find that the males demonstrate more diversity in their repertoires for earning money. The findings have implications for local government policy and for outreach workers who work with these populations.

Incised Pleistocene valleys in the Western Belgium coastal plain: Age, origins and implications for the evolution of the Southern North Sea Basin

The Belgian coastal plain occupies a key position as it is located at the transition between the Southern North Sea Basin and the Strait of Dover. It is characterized by thick sequences (> 20 m) of Pleistocene terrestrial and littoral sediments. Yet the wider stratigraphical and palaeo-environmental significance of these sediments received little attention. In this paper we draw on the results of a recent sedimentological study based on > 100 drillings that spans the Pleistocene sequence, and present new biostratigraphical (pollen, foraminifera, ostracods) data, all revealing a complex history of deposition. The record includes evidence of the development of incised-valley systems that were initiated in the late Middle and Late Pleistocene. Five phases of fluvial incision can be identified. The majority of the infills are deposited in an estuarine environment that passes into a fluvial environment land inward, except the Weichselian infill which has a predominant fluvial origin. The greatest part of the most seaward located zone of the western coastal plain was free of valley incisions, there, shallow marine sediments built up the record. Local biostratigraphical investigations provide a timeframe. The result is placed in a regional context.