Hicks meets Hotelling: the direction of technical change in capital-resource economies

We analyze a two-sector growth model with directed technical change where man-made capital and exhaustible resources are essential for production. The relative profitability of factor-specific innovations endogenously determines whether technical progress will be capital- or resource-augmenting. We show that any balanced growth equilibrium features purely resource-augmenting technical change. This result is compatible with alternative specifications of preferences and innovation technologies, as it hinges on the interplay between productive efficiency in the final sector, and the Hotelling rule characterizing the efficient depletion path for the exhaustible resource. Our result provides sound micro-foundations for the broad class of models of exogenous/endogenous growth where resource-augmenting progress is required to sustain consumption in the long run, contradicting the view that these models are conceptually biased in favor of sustainability.

Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change

Using a stylized theoretical model, we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over-estimate the degree of carbon leakage, as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change. We analyse carbon leakage in a two-country model with directed technical change, where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, that cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate.

Exercise and Auricular Acupuncture for Chronic Low Back Pain: A Feasibility Randomised Controlled Trial

Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of a randomized-controlled trial (RCT) investigating the effects of adding auricular acupuncture (AA) to exercise for participants with chronic low-back pain (CLBP). Methods: Participants with CLBP were recruited from primary care and a university population and were randomly allocated (n=51) to 1 of 2 groups: (1) "Exercise Alone (E)"-12-week program consisting of 6 weeks of supervised exercise followed by 6 weeks unsupervised exercise (n=27); or (2) "Exercise and AA (EAA)"-12-week exercise program and AA (n=24). Outcome measures were recorded at baseline, week 8, week 13, and 6 months. The primary outcome measure was the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire. Results: Participants in the EAA group demonstrated a greater mean improvement of 10.7% points (95% confidence interval, -15.3,-5.7) (effect size=1.20) in the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire at 6 months compared with 6.7% points (95% confidence interval, -11.4,-1.9) in the E group (effect size=0.58). There was also a trend towards a greater mean improvement in quality of life, LBP intensity and bothersomeness, and fear-avoidance beliefs in the EAA group. The dropout rate for this trial was lower than anticipated (15% at 6 mo), adherence with exercise was similar (72% E; 65% EAA). Adverse effects for AA ranged from 1% to 14% of participants. Discussion: Findings of this study showed that a main RCT is feasible and that 56 participants per group would need to be recruited, using multiple recruitment approaches. AA was safe and demonstrated additional benefits when combined with exercise for people with CLBP, which requires confirmation in a fully powered RCT.

Tissue biomarker development in a multicentre trial context: a feasibility study on the PETACC3 stage II and III colon cancer adjuvant treatment trial.

Purpose: We evaluated the feasibility of biomarker development in the context of multicenter clinical trials.

Experimental Design: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue samples were collected from a prospective adjuvant colon cancer trial (PETACC3). DNA was isolated from tumor as well as normal tissue and used for analysis of microsatellite instability, KRAS and BRAF genotyping, UGT1A1 genotyping, and loss of heterozygosity of 18 q loci. Immunohistochemistry was used to test expression of TERT, SMAD4, p53, and TYMS. Messenger RNA was retrieved and tested for use in expression profiling experiments.

Results: Of the 3,278 patients entered in the study, FFPE blocks were obtained from 1,564 patients coming from 368 different centers in 31 countries. In over 95% of the samples, genomic DNA tests yielded a reliable result. Of the immmunohistochemical tests, p53 and SMAD4 staining did best with reliable results in over 85% of the cases. TERT was the most problematic test with 46% of failures, mostly due to insufficient tissue processing quality. Good quality mRNA was obtained, usable in expression profiling experiments.

Conclusions: Prospective clinical trials can be used as framework for biomarker development using routinely processed FFPE tissues. Our results support the notion that as a rule, translational studies based on FFPE should be included in prospective clinical trials.