68 resultados para Scale Of Epidemic


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A conceptual model is described for generating distributions of grazing animals, according to their searching behavior, to investigate the mechanisms animals may use to achieve their distributions. The model simulates behaviors ranging from random diffusion, through taxis and cognitively aided navigation (i.e., using memory), to the optimization extreme of the Ideal Free Distribution. These behaviors are generated from simulation of biased diffusion that operates at multiple scales simultaneously, formalizing ideas of multiple-scale foraging behavior. It uses probabilistic bias to represent decisions, allowing multiple search goals to be combined (e.g., foraging and social goals) and the representation of suboptimal behavior. By allowing bias to arise at multiple scales within the environment, each weighted relative to the others, the model can represent different scales of simultaneous decision-making and scale-dependent behavior. The model also allows different constraints to be applied to the animal's ability (e.g., applying food-patch accessibility and information limits). Simulations show that foraging-decision randomness and spatial scale of decision bias have potentially profound effects on both animal intake rate and the distribution of resources in the environment. Spatial variograms show that foraging strategies can differentially change the spatial pattern of resource abundance in the environment to one characteristic of the foraging strategy.</

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Spatial analysis was used to explore the distribution of individual species in an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal community to address: whether mycorrhizas of individual ECM fungal species were patchily distributed, and at what scale; and what the causes of this patchiness might be. Ectomycorrhizas were extracted from spatially explicit samples of the surface organic horizons of a pine plantation. The number of mycorrhizas of each ECM fungal species was recorded using morphotyping combined with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing. Semivariograms, kriging and cluster analyses were used to determine both the extent and scale of spatial autocorrelation in species abundances, potential interactions between species, and change over time. The mycorrhizas of some, but not all, ECM fungal species were patchily distributed and the size of patches differed between species. The relative abundance of individual ECM fungal species and the position of patches of ectomycorrhizas changed between years. Spatial and temporal analysis revealed a dynamic ECM fungal community with many interspecific interactions taking place, despite the homogeneity of the host community. The spatial pattern of mycorrhizas was influenced by the underlying distribution of fine roots, but local root density was in turn influenced by the presence of specific fungal species.

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The purpose of this article is to describe the design, development and process evaluation of a preconception counselling resource (a DVD) for women with pre-gestational diabetes. DVD design and development centred on two key stakeholders ('DVD user group' and 'professional advisory group') working alongside a professional multimedia company. The DVD user group provided feedback on preferred DVD style, and informed modifications and improvements. The professional advisory group prepared the script, and ensured content and face validity. Evaluation of the DVD's acceptability and usefulness was assessed among women with diabetes via a postal questionnaire. Development phase: the resulting DVD is a 45-minute programme with three parts, featuring eight women with diabetes sharing their views and experiences, alongside an evidence-based commentary. The programme focuses on the importance of preventing an unplanned pregnancy (highlighting contraception) and on essential planning advice. Evaluation phase: 97 women (89 with type 1 and 8 with type 2 diabetes) evaluated the DVD using a rating scale of 0-10. Mean (SD) scores were: 9.1 (1.3) for quality; 9.0 (1.4) for content; 8.8 (1.5) for interest; 8.7 (1.8) for usefulness; 7.8 (2.2) for knowledge acquisition; and 8.0 (2.1) for knowledge confirmation. This combined user and multi-professional advisory group approach has produced an innovative and highly acceptable preconception counselling resource for women with diabetes. The development process and outcome evaluation are an important point of reference for future educational programmes. Future research will evaluate the impact of this preconception counselling resource on pregnancy planning indicators and pregnancy outcome.

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Background: Congenital heart disease can have a negative impact on both infant development and maternal adjustment. This study considered the impact of a new programme of early psychosocial interventions on such outcomes, following the birth of a child with severe congenital heart disease.
Methods: Seventy infants and their mothers were assigned to an intervention or control group based on order of presentation to the unit. Interventions aimed at bolstering mother–infant transactions, through psychoeducation, parent skills training and narrative therapy techniques were implemented.
Results: Clinically and statistically signi?cant gains were observed at 6-month follow-up on the mental (but not the psychomotor) scale of the Bayleys-II. Positive gains were also manifested on feeding practices, maternal anxiety, worry and appraisal of their situation.
Conclusions: A programme of generalizable psychosocial interventions is shown to have a positive impact on the infant with severe congenital heart disease and the mother.

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The temporal analysis of products (TAP) technique was successfully applied for the first time to investigate the reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction over a 2% Pt/CeO2 catalyst. The adsorption/desorption rate constants for CO2 and H-2 were determined in separate TAP pulse-response experiments, and the number of H-containing exchangeable species was determined using D-2 multipulse TAP experiments. This number is similar to the amount of active sites observed in previous SSITKA experiments. The CO production in the RWGS reaction was studied in a TAP experiment using separate (sequential) and simultaneous pulsing Of CO2 and H-2. A small yield of CO was observed when CO2 was pulsed alone over the reduced catalyst, whereas a much higher CO yield was observed when CO2 and H-2 were pulsed consecutively. The maximum CO yield was observed when the CO2 pulse was followed by a H-2 pulse with only a short (1 s) delay. Based on these findings, we conclude that an associative reaction mechanism dominates the RWGS reaction under these experimental conditions. The rate constants for several elementary steps can be determined from the TAP data. In addition, using a difference in the time scale of the separate reaction steps identified in the TAP experiments, it is possible to distinguish a number of possible reaction pathways. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, a coupling of fluorophore-DNA barcode and bead-based immunoassay for detecting avian influenza virus (AIV) with PCR-like sensitivity is reported. The assay is based on the use of sandwich immunoassay and fluorophore-tagged oligonucleotides as representative barcodes. The detection involves the sandwiching of the target AIV between magnetic immunoprobes and barcode-carrying immunoprobes. Because each barcode-carrying immunoprobe is functionalized with a multitude of fluorophore-DNA barcode strands, many DNA barcodes are released for each positive binding event resulting in amplification of the signal. Using an inactivated H16N3 AIV as a model, a linear response over five orders of magnitude was obtained, and the sensitivity of the detection was comparable to conventional RT-PCR. Moreover, the entire detection required less than 2 hr. The results indicate that the method has great potential as an alternative for surveillance of epidemic outbreaks caused by AIV, other viruses and microorganisms.

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NiTi alloys have been widely used in the applications for micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMS), which often involve some precise and complex motion control. However, when using the NiTi alloys in MEMS application, the main problem to be considered is the degradation of functional property during cycling loading. This also stresses the importance of accurate prediction of the functional behavior of NiTi alloys. In the last two decades, a large number of constitutive models have been proposed to achieve the task. A portion of them focused on the deformation behavior of NiTi alloys under cyclic loading, which is a practical and non-negligible situation. Despite of the scale of modeling studies of the field in NiTi alloys, two experimental observations under uniaxial tension loading have not received proper attentions. First, a deviation from linearity well before the stress-induced martensitic transformation (SIMT) has not been modeled. Recent experiments confirmed that it is caused by the formation of stress-induced R phase. Second, the influence of the well-known localized Lüders-like SIMT on the macroscopic behavior of NiTi alloys, in particular the residual strain during cyclic loading, has not been addressed. In response, we develop a 1-D phenomenological constitutive model for NiTi alloys with two novel features: the formation of stress-induced R phase and the explicit modeling of the localized Lüders-like SIMT. The derived constitutive relations are simple and at the same time sufficient to describe the behavior of NiTi alloys. The accumulation of residual strain caused by R phase under different loading schemes is accurately described by the proposed model. Also, the residual strain caused by irreversible SIMT at different maximum loading strain under cyclic tension loading in individual samples can be explained by and fitted into a single equation in the proposed model. These results show that the proposed model successfully captures the behavior of R phase and the essence of localized SIMT.

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The spontaneous oxidation of CO adsorbates on a Pt electrode modified by Ru under open circuit (OC) conditions in perchloric acid solution has been followed, for the first time, using in situ FTIR spectroscopy, and the dynamics of the surface processes taking place have been elucidated. The IR data show that adsorbed CO present on both the Ru and Pt domains and can be oxidized by the oxygen-containing adlayer on the Ru in a chemical process to produce CO under OC conditions. There is a free exchange of CO is between the Ru and Pt sites. Oxidation of CO may take place at the edges of the Ru islands, but CO is transfer, at least on the time scale of these experiments, allows the two different populations to maintain equilibrium. Oxidation is limited in this region by the rate of supply of oxygen to die surface of the catalyst. A mechanism is postulated to explain the observed behavior.

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The consequences of biodiversity loss in the face of environmental change remain difficult to predict, given the complexity of interactions among species and the context-dependency of their functional roles within ecosystems. Predictions may be enhanced by studies testing how the interactive effects of species loss from different functional groups vary with important environmental drivers. On rocky shores, limpets and barnacles are recognised as key grazers and ecosystem engineers, respectively. Despite the large body of research examining the combined effects of limpet and barnacle removal, it is unclear how their relative importance varies according to wave exposure, which is a dominant force structuring intertidal communities. We tested the responses of algal communities to the removal of limpets and barnacles on three sheltered and three wave-exposed rocky shores on the north coast of Ireland. Limpet removal resulted in a relative increase in microalgal biomass on a single sheltered shore only, but led to the enhanced accumulation of ephemeral macroalgae on two sheltered shores and one exposed shore. On average, independently of wave exposure or shore, ephemeral macroalgae increased in response to limpet removal, but only when barnacles were removed. On two sheltered shores and one exposed shore, however, barnacles facilitated the establishment of fucoid macroalgae following limpet removal. Therefore, at the scale of this study, variability among individual shores was more important than wave exposure per se in determining the effect of limpet removal and its interaction with that of barnacles. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the interactive effects of losing key species from different functional groups may not vary predictably according to dominant environmental factors.

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Introduction: There are many challenges in delivering rural health services; this is particularly true for the delivery of palliative care. Previous work has identified consistent themes around end-of-life care, including caregiver burden in providing care, the importance of informal care networks and barriers imposed by geography. Despite these well-known barriers, few studies have explored the experience of palliative care in rural settings. The purpose of the present study was to compare the experiences of rural family caregivers actively providing end-of-life care to the experiences of their urban counterparts. Methods: Caregivers' perceived health status, the experience of burden in caregiving, assessment of social supports and the pattern of formal care used by the terminally ill were explored using a consistent and standardized measurement approach. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted with 100 informal caregivers (44 rural, 56 urban) actively providing care to a terminally ill patient recruited from a publicly funded community agency located in northeastern Ontario, Canada. The telephone-based survey included questions assessing: (i) caregiver perceived burden (14-item instrument based on the Caregiver's Burden Scale in End-of-Life Care [CBS-EOLC]); (ii) perceived social support (modified version of the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support [MSPSS] consisting of 12 items); and (iii) functional status of the care recipient (assessed using the Eastern Collaborative Oncology Group performance scale). Results: Rural and urban caregivers were providing care to recipients with similar functional status; the majority of care recipients were either capable of all self-care or experiencing some limitation in self-care. No group differences were observed for caregiver perceived burden: both rural and urban caregivers reported low levels of burden (CBS-EOLC score of 26.5 [SD=8.1] and 25.0 [SD=9.2], respectively; p=0.41). Urban and rural caregivers also reported similarly high levels of social support (mean MSPSS total score of 4.3 [SD=0.7] and 4.1 [SD=0.8], respectively; p=0.40). Although caregivers across both settings reported using a comparable number of services (rural 4.8 [SD=1.9] vs urban 4.5 [SD=1.8]; p=0.39), the types of services used differed. Rural caregivers reported greater use of family physicians (65.1% vs 40.7%; p=0.02), emergency room visits (31.8% vs 13.0%; p=0.02) and pharmacy services (95.3% vs 70.4%; p=0.002), while urban caregivers reported greater use of caregiver respite services (29.6% vs 11.6%; p=0.03). Conclusion: Through the use of standardized tools, this study explored the experiences of rural informal family caregivers providing palliative care in contrast to the experiences of their urban counterparts. The results of the present study suggest that while there are commonalities to the caregiving experience regardless of setting, key differences also exist. Thus, location is a factor to be considered when implementing palliative care programs and services. © K Brazil, S Kaasalainen, A Williams, C Rodriguez, 2013.

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A novel numerical technique is proposed to model thermal plasma of microseconds/milliseconds time-scale effect. Modelling thermal plasma due to lightning strike will allow the estimation of electric current density, plasma pressure, and heat flux at the surface of the aircraft structure. These input data can then be used for better estimation of the mechanical/thermal induced damage on the aircraft structures for better protection systems design. Thermal plasma generated during laser cutting, electric (laser) welding and other plasma processing techniques have been the focus of many researchers. Thermal plasma is a gaseous state that consists from a mixture of electrons, ions, and natural particles. Thermal plasma can be assumed to be in local thermodynamic equilibrium, which means the electrons and the heavy species have equal temperature. Different numerical techniques have been developed using a coupled Navier Stokes – Heat transfer – Electromagnetic equations based on the assumption that the thermal plasma is a single laminar gas flow. These previous efforts focused on generating thermal plasma of time-scale in the range of seconds. Lighting strike on aircraft structures generates thermal plasma of time-scale of milliseconds/microseconds, which makes the previous physics used not applicable. The difficulty comes from the Navier-Stokes equations as the fluid is simulated under shock load, this introducing significant changes in the density and temperature of the fluid.

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The radiative decay of surface plasmon polaritons has been investigated in an attempt to characterize the surface roughness of Ag films prepared under different conditions. The polaritons were excited by the method of attenuated total reflection of light. The films were deposited on the face of a 60-degrees BK-7 glass prism at a rate that was deliberately fixed in two different ranges (centred on 0.1 and 10 nm s-1) and in some cases a CaF2 underlayer was used to roughen the film surfaces. The intensity of the scattered light emitted from the opposite face of the films was measured as a function of direction for each using the same sensitivity scale and was correlated with the preparation of the film. It was found that on nominally smooth substrates fast-deposited thinner films give out more light and are deduced to have greater short wavelength (300-600 nm) roughness amplitude. There is also evidence for long wavelenth (7 mum) periodic roughness due to the prism substrate itself. On CaF2 roughened surfaces the light output from the films is further increased and the peak intensity is backward directed with respect to the exciting laser beam direction. Here roughness on a lateral scale of 350 nm is responsible. Also, elastic scattering of surface plasmon polaritons at grain boundaries reduces the light output from fast deposited, small grain, films on CaF2 roughened surfaces. Overall, a consistent picture of roughness induced radiative polariton decay emerges for all cases studied.

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Burkholderia cepacia complex organisms are important transmissible pathogens found in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. In recent years, the rates of cross-infection of epidemic strains have declined due to effective infection control efforts. However, cases of sporadic B. cepacia complex infection continue to occur in some centers. The acquisition pathways and clinical outcomes of sporadic B. cepacia complex infection are unclear. We sought to determine the patient clinical characteristics, outcomes, incidence, and genotypic relatedness for all cases of B. cepacia complex infection at two CF centers. We also sought to study the external conditions that influence the acquisition of infection. From 2001 to 2011, 67 individual organisms were cultured from the respiratory samples of 64 patients. Sixty-five percent of the patients were adults, in whom chronic infections were more common (68%) (P = 0.006). The incidence of B. cepacia complex infection increased by a mean of 12% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3 to 23%) per year. The rates of transplantation and death were similar in the incident cases who developed chronic infection compared to those in patients with chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection. Multilocus sequence typing revealed 50 individual strains from 65 isolates. Overall, 85% of the patients were infected with unique strains, suggesting sporadic acquisition of infection. The yearly incidence of nonepidemic B. cepacia complex infection was positively correlated with the amount of rainfall in the two sites examined: subtropical Brisbane (r = 0.65, P = 0.031) and tropical Townsville (r = 0.82, P = 0.002). This study demonstrates that despite strict cohort segregation, new cases of unrelated B. cepacia complex infection continue to occur. These data also support an environmental origin of infection and suggest that climate conditions may be associated with the acquisition of B. cepacia complex infections.

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Background: Noroviruses (NoVs) are the most common cause of epidemic gastroenteritis, responsible for at least 50% of all gastroenteritis outbreaks worldwide and were recently identified as a leading cause of travelers' diarrhea (TD) in US and European travelers to Mexico, Guatemala, and India.

Methods: Serum and diarrheic stool samples were collected from 75 US student travelers to Cuernavaca, Mexico, who developed TD. NoV RNA was detected in acute diarrheic stool samples using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Serology assays were performed using GI.1 Norwalk virus (NV) and GII.4 Houston virus (HOV) virus-like particles (VLPs) to measure serum levels of immunoglobulin A (IgA) and IgG by dissociation-enhanced lanthanide fluorescent immunoassay (DELFIA); serum IgM was measured by capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the 50% antibody-blocking titer (BT50 ) was determined by a carbohydrate-blocking assay.

Results: NoV infection was identified in 12 (16%; 9 GI-NoV and 3 GII-NoV) of 75 travelers by either RT-PCR or fourfold or more rise in antibody titer. Significantly more individuals had detectable preexisting IgA antibodies against HOV (62/75, 83%) than against NV (49/75, 65%) (p = 0.025) VLPs. A significant difference was observed between NV- and HOV-specific preexisting IgA antibody levels (p = 0.0037), IgG (p = 0.003), and BT50 (p = <0.0001). None of the NoV-infected TD travelers had BT50  > 200, a level that has been described previously as a possible correlate of protection.

Conclusion: We found that GI-NoVs are commonly associated with TD cases identified in US adults traveling to Mexico, and seroprevalence rates and geometric mean antibody levels to a GI-NoV were lower than to a GII-NoV strain.

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Leptospirosis is a globally important zoonotic infection caused by spirochaetes of the genus Leptospira. It is transmitted to humans by direct contact with infected animals or indirectly via contaminated water. It is mainly a problem of the resource-poor developing countries of the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world but outbreaks due to an increase in travel and recreational activities have been reported in developed and more industrialized areas of the world. Current methods of diagnosis are costly, time-consuming and require the use of specialized laboratory equipment and personnel. The purpose of this paper is to report the validation of the 'Leptorapide®' test (Linnodee Ltd, Northern Ireland) for the diagnosis of human leptospirosis. It is a simple one-step latex agglutination assay performed using equal volumes of serum sample and antigen-bound latex beads. Evidence of leptospiral antibodies is determined within minutes. Agglutination is scored on a scale of 1-5 and the results interpreted using a score card provided with the kit. Validation has been performed with a large sample size obtained from individuals originating from various parts of the world including Brazil and India. The test has shown sensitivity and specificity values of 97·1% and 94·0%, respectively, relative to the microscopic agglutination test. The results demonstrate that Leptorapide offers a cost-effective and accurate alternative to the more historical methods of antibody detection.