Country Focus: Russia

The Ukraine crisis focused attention on Russia, and the motivations of its President, Vladimir Putin. Timofey Agarin examines Putin's Russia and argues that only a sustained commitment to parity of interethnic relations and modernisation can improve the country's prospects.

Stable Isotope Dietary Analysis of Prehistoric Populations from the Minusinsk Basin, Southern Siberia, Russia: A new chronological framework for the introduction of millet to the eastern Eurasian steppe

We report the results of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of 354 human and faunal samples from five archaeological cultures of the Minusinsk Basin, Southern Siberia – Afanasyevo, Okunevo, Andronovo, Karasuk and Tagar (ca. 2700–1 BC) – a key location in Eurasia due to its position on a northern corridor linking China and central Eurasia. The results indicate that the diet of Eneolithic to Middle Bronze Age (Afanasyevo to Andronovo) populations was primarily C3-based, with C4 plants only becoming an important component of the diet in the Late Bronze Age Karasuk and Early Iron Age Tagar cultures. Freshwater fish seems to have been an important constituent of the diets in all groups. The findings constitute the earliest concrete evidence for the substantial use of millet in the eastern Eurasian steppe. We propose that it was probably introduced from Northwestern China during the Karasuk culture at the start of the Late Bronze Age, ca. 1500 BC. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for the nature of pastoralist economies on the steppes.

Operation X: Soviet Russia and the Spanish Civil War

This article offers a critical reassessment of the Soviet role in the Spanish Civil War, based on recent scholarship and declassified official documents. The author interrogates the broad historiographical consensus that reduces Soviet intervention in Spain to a sinister and nefarious force. Stalin's ignominious reputation vis-à-vis the Loyalist side is present in nearly all Western scholarship on the war, whether specialized studies by Nationalist sympathizers or Republicans in exile, or general treatments of European history written in England or America. It would be difficult to locate even a brief overview of the Civil War published outside of Russia that does not in some fashion demonize the Soviet dictator and the Soviet military assistance, code-named ‘Operation X’. The author argues that the basic error in the wide-ranging literature of this topic has always been to approach Stalin's position in Spain as one based on strength rather than weakness. If framed within the context of failure, Stalin's long-standing reputation as the villain of the Civil War may appear in a strikingly different light, and Soviets’ overall contribution to the Loyalist struggle therefore deserving a nuanced revision. The author also explores the multiple strands of the Soviet-Spanish relationship, which included not only military aid but also diplomatic, cultural and humanitarian facets.

19th-century diplomacy can help deal with 21st-century Russia

The West has failed to properly integrate Russia into its worldview since 1991, and there is an obvious vacuum of ideas for how to deal with it. The default reaction is to fall back on the Cold War paradigm - sanctions, containment, and hopes of Russian regime change.

This is folly. There’s no knowing how long it will take for Russia to change tack, if it ever does; nothing guarantees that a new regime in Russia would be any more pro-Western. There’s also apparently no idea how to handle Russia in the meantime, especially while it remains a crucial part of crises like those in Iran and Syria.

Ukraine has shown that the placeholder post-Cold War order Europe and Russia inherited urgently needs replacing. With a ceasefire in place at last, the search for an alternative is on. The Geneva talks in April this year could be its basis; but nothing truly transformative will be achieved until the US, EU, Russia and Ukraine all recognise the need for compromise.

Compositional data-driven alternatives to single geochemical component maps

Conventional practice in Regional Geochemistry includes as a final step of any geochemical campaign the generation of a series of maps, to show the spatial distribution of each of the components considered. Such maps, though necessary, do not comply with the compositional, relative nature of the data, which unfortunately make any conclusion based on them sensitive
to spurious correlation problems. This is one of the reasons why these maps are never interpreted isolated. This contribution aims at gathering a series of statistical methods to produce individual maps of multiplicative combinations of components (logcontrasts), much in the flavor of equilibrium constants, which are designed on purpose to capture certain aspects of the data.
We distinguish between supervised and unsupervised methods, where the first require an external, non-compositional variable (besides the compositional geochemical information) available in an analogous training set. This external variable can be a quantity (soil density, collocated magnetics, collocated ratio of Th/U spectral gamma counts, proportion of clay particle fraction, etc) or a category (rock type, land use type, etc). In the supervised methods, a regression-like model between the external variable and the geochemical composition is derived in the training set, and then this model is mapped on the whole region. This case is illustrated with the Tellus dataset, covering Northern Ireland at a density of 1 soil sample per 2 square km, where we map the presence of blanket peat and the underlying geology. The unsupervised methods considered include principal components and principal balances
(Pawlowsky-Glahn et al., CoDaWork2013), i.e. logcontrasts of the data that are devised to capture very large variability or else be quasi-constant. Using the Tellus dataset again, it is found that geological features are highlighted by the quasi-constant ratios Hf/Nb and their ratio against SiO2; Rb/K2O and Zr/Na2O and the balance between these two groups of two variables; the balance of Al2O3 and TiO2 vs. MgO; or the balance of Cr, Ni and Co vs. V and Fe2O3. The largest variability appears to be related to the presence/absence of peat.

Why is Russia flexing its muscles in the Middle East?

Syria’s bloody civil war suddenly became even more tangled in September with the start of a massive Russian bombing campaign on targets in the country. Two historians offer their personal takes on why Vladimir Putin ordered airstrikes

Russia will brush off Litvinenko accusations – and there is little that can be done about it

The Litvinenko findings bring forth the dilemmas for the British government it hoped it could bury: how to reconcile moral principles with hardcore realities of international politics and economics.

Russia and the EU: The Global Cooperation Agenda

Two factors are important for effective cooperation with Russia in the wider world. First, the EU needs to develop a downgraded, ‘values-light’ agenda focused on solving concrete challenges. Second, to achieve the first point, a common minimum set of shared principles needs to be agreed upon. The need for such change is underscored by structural barriers for construct