Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

Establishing optimal quantitative-polymerase chain reaction assays for routine diagnosis and tracking of minimal residual disease in JAK2-V617F-associated myeloproliferative neoplasms:a joint European LeukemiaNet/MPN&MPNr-EuroNet (COST action BM0902) study

Reliable detection of JAK2-V617F is critical for accurate diagnosis of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); in addition, sensitive mutation-specific assays can be applied to monitor disease response. However, there has been no consistent approach to JAK2-V617F detection, with assays varying markedly in performance, affecting clinical utility. Therefore, we established a network of 12 laboratories from seven countries to systematically evaluate nine different DNA-based quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays, including those in widespread clinical use. Seven quality control rounds involving over 21,500 qPCR reactions were undertaken using centrally distributed cell line dilutions and plasmid controls. The two best-performing assays were tested on normal blood samples (n=100) to evaluate assay specificity, followed by analysis of serial samples from 28 patients transplanted for JAK2-V617F-positive disease. The most sensitive assay, which performed consistently across a range of qPCR platforms, predicted outcome following transplant, with the mutant allele detected a median of 22 weeks (range 6-85 weeks) before relapse. Four of seven patients achieved molecular remission following donor lymphocyte infusion, indicative of a graft vs MPN effect. This study has established a robust, reliable assay for sensitive JAK2-V617F detection, suitable for assessing response in clinical trials, predicting outcome and guiding management of patients undergoing allogeneic transplant.

Earthmoving trucks condition level prediction using neural networks

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts earthmoving trucks condition level using simple predictors; the model’s performance is compared to the respective predictive accuracy of the statistical method of discriminant analysis (DA).

Design/methodology/approach: An ANN-based predictive model is developed. The condition level predictors selected are the capacity, age, kilometers travelled and maintenance level. The relevant data set was provided by two Greek construction companies and includes the characteristics of 126 earthmoving trucks.

Findings: Data processing identifies a particularly strong connection of kilometers travelled and maintenance level with the earthmoving trucks condition level. Moreover, the validation process reveals that the predictive efficiency of the proposed ANN model is very high. Similar findings emerge from the application of DA to the same data set using the same predictors.

Originality/value: Earthmoving trucks’ sound condition level prediction reduces downtime and its adverse impact on earthmoving duration and cost, while also enhancing the maintenance and replacement policies effectiveness. This research proves that a sound condition level prediction for earthmoving trucks is achievable through the utilization of easy to collect data and provides a comparative evaluation of the results of two widely applied predictive methods.

A Sensitivity Approach for Eliminating Clashes from Computer Aided Design Model Assemblies

Clashes occur when components in an assembly unintentionally violate others. If clashes are not identified and designed out before manufacture, product function will be reduced or substantial cost will be incurred in rework. This paper introduces a novel approach for eliminating clashes by identifying which parameters defining the part features in a computer aided design (CAD) assembly need to change and by how much. Sensitivities are calculated for each parameter defining the part and the assembly as the change in clash volume due to a change in each parameter value. These sensitivities give an indication of important parameters and are used to predict the optimum combination of changes in each parameter to eliminate the clash. Consideration is given to the fact that it is sometimes preferable to modify some components in an assembly rather than others and that some components in an assembly cannot be modified as the designer does not have control over their shape. Successful elimination of clashes has been demonstrated in a number of example assemblies.

Realizing Accelerated Cost-Effective Distributed RAID

The exponential growth in user and application data entails new means for providing fault tolerance and protection against data loss. High Performance Com- puting (HPC) storage systems, which are at the forefront of handling the data del- uge, typically employ hardware RAID at the backend. However, such solutions are costly, do not ensure end-to-end data integrity, and can become a bottleneck during data reconstruction. In this paper, we design an innovative solution to achieve a flex- ible, fault-tolerant, and high-performance RAID-6 solution for a parallel file system (PFS). Our system utilizes low-cost, strategically placed GPUs — both on the client and server sides — to accelerate parity computation. In contrast to hardware-based approaches, we provide full control over the size, length and location of a RAID array on a per file basis, end-to-end data integrity checking, and parallelization of RAID array reconstruction. We have deployed our system in conjunction with the widely-used Lustre PFS, and show that our approach is feasible and imposes ac- ceptable overhead.

Low-cost Process monitoring for polymer extrusion

Polymer extrusion is regarded as an energy-intensive production process, and the real-time monitoring of both energy consumption and melt quality has become necessary to meet new carbon regulations and survive in the highly competitive plastics market. The use of a power meter is a simple and easy way to monitor energy, but the cost can sometimes be high. On the other hand, viscosity is regarded as one of the key indicators of melt quality in the polymer extrusion process. Unfortunately, viscosity cannot be measured directly using current sensory technology. The employment of on-line, in-line or off-line rheometers is sometimes useful, but these instruments either involve signal delay or cause flow restrictions to the extrusion process, which is obviously not suitable for real-time monitoring and control in practice. In this paper, simple and accurate real-time energy monitoring methods are developed. This is achieved by looking inside the controller, and using control variables to calculate the power consumption. For viscosity monitoring, a ‘soft-sensor’ approach based on an RBF neural network model is developed. The model is obtained through a two-stage selection and differential evolution, enabling compact and accurate solutions for viscosity monitoring. The proposed monitoring methods were tested and validated on a Killion KTS-100 extruder, and the experimental results show high accuracy compared with traditional monitoring approaches.

Incorporating Severity and Risk as Factors to the Fardal Cost-Effectiveness Model to Create a Cost-Benefit Model for Periodontal Treatment

Background: A previously described economic model was based on average values for patients diagnosed with chronic periodontitis (CP). However, tooth loss varies among treated patients and factors for tooth loss include CP severity and risk. The model was refined to incorporate CP severity and risk to determine the cost of treating a specific level of CP severity and risk that is associated with the benefit of tooth preservation.

Methods: A population that received and another that did not receive periodontal treatment were used to determine treatment costs and tooth loss. The number of teeth preserved was the difference of the number of teeth lost between the two populations. The cost of periodontal treatment was divided by the number of teeth preserved for combinations of CP severity and risk.

Results: The cost of periodontal treatment divided by the number of teeth preserved ranged from (US) $ 1,405 to $ 4,895 for high or moderate risk combined with any severity of CP and was more than $ 8,639 for low risk combined with mild CP. The cost of a three-unit bridge was $ 3,416, and the cost of a single-tooth replacement was $ 4,787.

Conclusion: Periodontal treatment could be justified on the sole basis of tooth preservation when CP risk is moderate or high regardless of disease severity.

Cost-Directed Refactoring for Parallel Erlang Programs

This paper presents a new programming methodology for introducing and tuning parallelism in Erlang programs, using source-level code refactoring from sequential source programs to parallel programs written using our skeleton library, Skel. High-level cost models allow us to predict with reasonable accuracy the parallel performance of the refactored program, enabling programmers to make informed decisions about which refactorings to apply. Using our approach, we demonstrate easily obtainable, significant and scalable speedups of up to 21 on a 24-core machine over the sequential code.

Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance: A Multiple Classifiers Approach

In this paper a multiple classifier machine learning methodology for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) is presented. PdM is a prominent strategy for dealing with maintenance issues given the increasing need to minimize downtime and associated costs. One of the challenges with PdM is generating so called ’health factors’ or quantitative indicators of the status of a system associated with a given maintenance issue, and determining their relationship to operating costs and failure risk. The proposed PdM methodology allows dynamical decision rules to be adopted for maintenance management and can be used with high-dimensional and censored data problems. This is achieved by training multiple classification modules with different prediction horizons to provide different performance trade-offs in terms of frequency of unexpected breaks and unexploited lifetime and then employing this information in an operating cost based maintenance decision system to minimise expected costs. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated using a simulated example and a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing maintenance problem.

Difference equation approach to two-thermocouple sensor characterization in constant velocity flow environments

Thermocouples are one of the most popular devices for temperature measurement due to their robustness, ease of manufacture and installation, and low cost. However, when used in certain harsh environments, for example, in combustion systems and engine exhausts, large wire diameters are required, and consequently the measurement bandwidth is reduced. This article discusses a software compensation technique to address the loss of high frequency fluctuations based on measurements from two thermocouples. In particular, a difference equation (DE) approach is proposed and compared with existing methods both in simulation and on experimental test rig data with constant flow velocity. It is found that the DE algorithm, combined with the use of generalized total least squares for parameter identification, provides better performance in terms of time constant estimation without any a priori assumption on the time constant ratios of the thermocouples.

Histogram of oriented gradients front end processing: An FPGA based processor approach

The Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) implementation of the commonly used Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) algorithm is explored. The HOG algorithm is employed to extract features for object detection. A key focus has been to explore the use of a new FPGA-based processor which has been targeted at image processing. The paper gives details of the mapping and scheduling factors that influence the performance and the stages that were undertaken to allow the algorithm to be deployed on FPGA hardware, whilst taking into account the specific IPPro architecture features. We show that multi-core IPPro performance can exceed that of against state-of-the-art FPGA designs by up to 3.2 times with reduced design and implementation effort and increased flexibility all on a low cost, Zynq programmable system.

Optimisation of a two-liquid component pre-filled acrylic bone cement system: A design of experiments approach to optimise cement final properties

The initial composition of acrylic bone cement along with the mixing and delivery technique used can influence its final properties and therefore its clinical success in vivo. The polymerisation of acrylic bone cement is complex with a number of processes happening simultaneously. Acrylic bone cement mixing and delivery systems have undergone several design changes in their advancement, although the cement constituents themselves have remained unchanged since they were first used. This study was conducted to determine the factors that had the greatest effect on the final properties of acrylic bone cement using a pre-filled bone cement mixing and delivery system. A design of experiments (DoE) approach was used to determine the impact of the factors associated with this mixing and delivery method on the final properties of the cement produced. The DoE illustrated that all factors present within this study had a significant impact on the final properties of the cement. An optimum cement composition was hypothesised and tested. This optimum recipe produced cement with final mechanical and thermal properties within the clinical guidelines and stated by ISO 5833 (International Standard Organisation (ISO), International standard 5833: implants for surgery—acrylic resin cements, 2002), however the low setting times observed would not be clinically viable and could result in complications during the surgical technique. As a result further development would be required to improve the setting time of the cement in order for it to be deemed suitable for use in total joint replacement surgery.

A novel experimental approach to investigate radiolysis processes in liquid samples using collimated radiation sources

Here is detailed a novel and low-cost experimental method for high-throughput automated fluid sample irradiation. The sample is delivered via syringe pump to a nozzle, where it is expressed in the form of a hanging droplet into the path of a beam of ionising radiation. The dose delivery is controlled by an upstream lead shutter, which allows the beam to reach the droplet for a user defined period of time. The droplet is then further expressed after irradiation until it falls into one well of a standard microplate. The entire system is automated and can be operated remotely using software designed in-house, allowing for use in environments deemed unsafe for the user (synchrotron beamlines, for example). Depending on the number of wells in the microplate, several droplets can be irradiated before any human interaction is necessary, and the user may choose up to 10 samples per microplate using an array of identical syringe pumps, the design of which is described here. The nozzles consistently produce droplets of 25.1 ± 0.5 μl.

Tooth replacement for partially dentate elders: a randomised controlled trial

Objective: This study aimed to compare two different tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate older patients namely; removable partial dentures (RPDs) and functionally orientated treatment based on the shortened dental arch (SDA) concept. Method: 88 partially dentate older patients (mean age 69.4 years) completed a randomised controlled clinical trial. 43 patients received RPDs and 45 received functionally orientated treatment where resin bonded bridgework was used to provide 10 pairs of occluding contacts. Patients were followed for 1 year after treatment intervention. The impact of treatment on oral health-related quality of life (OHrQOL) and cost effectiveness were used as outcome measures. Each patient completed the short form of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) at baseline, 6 months and 1 year after treatment intervention. All costs involved in providing and maintaining each intervention were recorded including dental laboratory bills, materials and professional time. Result: Both the RPD (p=0.004) and the functionally orientated (p<0.001) treatment groups demonstrated statistically significant improvements in OHrQOL 1 year after treatment intervention. On average 9.4 visits were required to complete and maintain the RPDs over the 1 year period as compared to 5.3 visits for the functionally orientated group. The average laboratory cost for the RPDs was $537.45 per patient versus $367.89 for functionally orientated treatment. The cost of achieving the Minimally Important Difference of 5 scale points in OHIP-14 score with RPDs was $732.17. For the functionally orientated group the cost was $356.88. Therefore, functionally orientated treatment was more than twice as cost effective (1:2.05). Conclusion: For partially dentate older patients, functionally orientated treatment based on the SDA concept resulted in sustained, significant improvements in OHrQOL. Provision of functionally orientated treatment was also more than twice as cost effective compared to conventional treatment using RPDs.

A mixed cost-function adaptive algorithm for ADSL time-domain equalization

We propose a mixed cost-function adaptive initialization algorithm for the time domain equalizer in a discrete multitone (DMT)-based asymmetric digital subscriber line. Using our approach, a higher convergence rate than that of the commonly used least-mean square algorithm is obtained, whilst attaining bit rates close to the optimum maximum shortening SNR and the upper bound SNR. Furthermore, our proposed method outperforms the minimum mean-squared error design for a range of time domain equalizer (TEQ) filter lengths. The improved performance outweighs the small increase in computational complexity required. A block variant of our proposed algorithm is also presented to overcome the increased latency imposed on the feedback path of the adaptive system.