Outperformance in exchange-traded fund pricing deviations: Generalized control of data snooping bias

An investigation into exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforrnance during the period 2008-2012 is undertaken utilizing a data set of 288 U.S. traded securities. ETFs are tested for net asset value (NAV) premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance, with Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios employed as risk-adjusted performance measures. A key contribution is the application of an innovative generalized stepdown procedure in controlling for data snooping bias. We find that a large proportion of optimized replication and debt asset class ETFs display risk-adjusted premiums with energy and precious metals focused funds outperforming the S&P 500 market benchmark. 

Proposed role for COUP-TFII in regulating fetal Leydig cell steroidogenesis, perturbation of which leads to masculinization disorders in rodents

Reproductive disorders that are common/increasing in prevalence in human males may arise because of deficient androgen production/action during a fetal 'masculinization programming window'. We identify a potentially important role for Chicken Ovalbumin Upstream Promoter-Transcription Factor II (COUP-TFII) in Leydig cell (LC) steroidogenesis that may partly explain this. In rats, fetal LC size and intratesticular testosterone (ITT) increased ~3-fold between e15.5-e21.5 which associated with a progressive decrease in the percentage of LC expressing COUP-TFII. Exposure of fetuses to dibutyl phthalate (DBP), which induces masculinization disorders, dose-dependently prevented the age-related decrease in LC COUP-TFII expression and the normal increases in LC size and ITT. We show that nuclear COUP-TFII expression in fetal rat LC relates inversely to LC expression of steroidogenic factor-1 (SF-1)-dependent genes (StAR, Cyp11a1, Cyp17a1) with overlapping binding sites for SF-1 and COUP-TFII in their promoter regions, but does not affect an SF-1 dependent LC gene (3β-HSD) without overlapping sites. We also show that once COUP-TFII expression in LC has switched off, it is re-induced by DBP exposure, coincident with suppression of ITT. Furthermore, other treatments that reduce fetal ITT in rats (dexamethasone, diethylstilbestrol (DES)) also maintain/induce LC nuclear expression of COUP-TFII. In contrast to rats, in mice DBP neither causes persistence of fetal LC COUP-TFII nor reduces ITT, whereas DES-exposure of mice maintains COUP-TFII expression in fetal LC and decreases ITT, as in rats. These findings suggest that lifting of repression by COUP-TFII may be an important mechanism that promotes increased testosterone production by fetal LC to drive masculinization. As we also show an age-related decline in expression of COUP-TFII in human fetal LC, this mechanism may also be functional in humans, and its susceptibility to disruption by environmental chemicals, stress and pregnancy hormones could explain the origin of some human male reproductive disorders.

A miR-433 mediated mechanism of chemoresistance in high grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC).

Higher expression of the miR-433 microRNA (miRNA) is associated with poorer survival outcomes in patients with HGSOC that may be overcome by a greater understanding of the functional role of this miRNA. We previously described miR-433 as a critical cell cycle regulator and mediator of cellular senescence. Downregulation of the mitotic arrest deficiency 2 (MAD2) protein by miR-433 led to increased cellular resistance to paclitaxel in epithelial ovarian cancer cells (EOC). Furthermore immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of MAD2 expression in patients with HGSOC showed that loss of MAD2 was significantly associated with poorer patient survival. Higher miR-433 expression is also associated with an increased resistance to the platins which is unrelated to loss of MAD2 expression. In silico analysis of the miR-433 target proteins in the TCGA database identified the association between a number of miR-433 targets and poorer patient survival. IHC analysis of the miR-433 target, histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6), confirmed that its expression was significantly associated with a decrease in patient overall survival. The knock-down of HDAC6 by siRNA in EOC cells did not attenuate apoptotic responses to paclitaxel or platin although lower endogenous HDAC6 expression was associated with more resistant EOC cell lines. In vitro analysis revealed that EOC cells which survived chemotherapeutic kill with high doses of paclitaxel expressed higher miR-433 and concomitant decreased expression of the miR-433 targets. These cells were more chemoresistant compared to the parental cell line and repopulated as 3d organoid cultures in non-adherent stem cell selective conditions; thus indicating that the cells which survive chemotherapy were viable, capable of regrowth and had an increased potential for pluripotency. In conclusion, our data suggests that chemotherapy is not driving the transcriptional upregulation of miR-433 but rather selecting a population of cells with high miR-433 expression that may contribute to chemoresistant disease and tumour recurrence.

POU2F1 activity regulates HOXD10 and HOXD11 promoting a proliferative and invasive phenotype in head and neck cancer

HOX genes are master regulators of organ morphogenesis and cell differentiation during embryonic development, and continue to be expressed throughout post-natal life. To test the hypothesis that HOX genes are dysregulated in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) we defined their expression profile, and investigated the function, transcriptional regulation and clinical relevance of a subset of highly expressed HOXD genes. Two HOXD genes, D10 and D11, showed strikingly high levels in HNSCC cell lines, patient tumor samples and publicly available datasets. Knockdown of HOXD10 in HNSCC cells caused decreased proliferation and invasion, whereas knockdown of HOXD11 reduced only invasion. POU2F1 consensus sequences were identified in the 5' DNA of HOXD10 and D11. Knockdown of POU2F1 significantly reduced expression of HOXD10 and D11 and inhibited HNSCC proliferation. Luciferase reporter constructs of the HOXD10 and D11 promoters confirmed that POU2F1 consensus binding sites are required for optimal promoter activity. Utilizing patient tumor samples a significant association was found between immunohistochemical staining of HOXD10 and both the overall and the disease-specific survival, adding further support that HOXD10 is dysregulated in head and neck cancer. Additional studies are now warranted to fully evaluate HOXD10 as a prognostic tool in head and neck cancers.

Analgesic exposure in pregnant rats affects fetal germ cell development with inter-generational reproductive consequences

Analgesics which affect prostaglandin (PG) pathways are used by most pregnant women. As germ cells (GC) undergo developmental and epigenetic changes in fetal life and are PG targets, we investigated if exposure of pregnant rats to analgesics (indomethacin or acetaminophen) affected GC development and reproductive function in resulting offspring (F1) or in the F2 generation. Exposure to either analgesic reduced F1 fetal GC number in both sexes and altered the tempo of fetal GC development sex-dependently, with delayed meiotic entry in oogonia but accelerated GC differentiation in males. These effects persisted in adult F1 females as reduced ovarian and litter size, whereas F1 males recovered normal GC numbers and fertility by adulthood. F2 offspring deriving from an analgesic-exposed F1 parent also exhibited sex-specific changes. F2 males exhibited normal reproductive development whereas F2 females had smaller ovaries and reduced follicle numbers during puberty/adulthood; as similar changes were found for F2 offspring of analgesic-exposed F1 fathers or mothers, we interpret this as potentially indicating an analgesic-induced change to GC in F1. Assuming our results are translatable to humans, they raise concerns that analgesic use in pregnancy could potentially affect fertility of resulting daughters and grand-daughters.

US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of 'Cheap Money'

In this paper, we employ a unique dataset of actual US dollar (USD) forward positions against a number of currencies taken by so-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). We investigate to what extent these positions exhibit a pattern of USD carry trading or other patterns of currency trading over the recent period of the ultra-loose US monetary policy. Our analysis indeed shows that USD positions against emerging market currencies are characterised by a pattern of carry trading. That is, the USD, as the lower yielding currency, is associated with short positions. The payoff distributions of these positions, moreover, are found to have positive Sharpe ratios, negative skewness and high kurtosis. On the other hand, we find that USD positions against other advanced country currencies have a pattern completely opposite to carry trading which is in line with uncovered interest parity trading; that is, the lower (higher) yielding currency is associated with long (short) positions.

Challenges in molecular testing in non-small-cell lung cancer patients with advanced disease

Lung cancer diagnostics have progressed greatly in the previous decade. Development of molecular testing to identify an increasing number of potentially clinically actionable genetic variants, using smaller samples obtained via minimally invasive techniques, is a huge challenge. Tumour heterogeneity and cancer evolution in response to therapy means that repeat biopsies or circulating biomarkers are likely to be increasingly useful to adapt treatment as resistance develops. We highlight some of the current challenges faced in clinical practice for molecular testing of EGFR, ALK, and new biomarkers such as PDL1. Implementation of next generation sequencing platforms for molecular diagnostics in non-small-cell lung cancer is increasingly common, allowing testing of multiple genetic variants from a single sample. The use of next generation sequencing to recruit for molecularly stratified clinical trials is discussed in the context of the UK Stratified Medicine Programme and The UK National Lung Matrix Trial.