A multi-proxy chronological reconstruction of palaeosalinity in the eastern Limfjord, Denmark

The Jutland peninsula in northern Denmark is home to the Limfjord, one of the largest estuarine bodies of water in the region. Human inhabitance of the Limfjord’s surrounding coastlines stretches back further than 7,800 cal BP, with anthropogenic influence on the landscape beginning approximately 6,000 cal BP. Understanding how the Limfjord as a system has changed throughout time is useful in comprehending subsistence patterns and anthropogenic influence. This research is part of a larger project aimed at discerning subsistence patterns and environmental change in the region. Following the Younger Dryas, as the Fennoscandian ice sheet began to melt, Denmark experienced isostatic rebound, which contributed to the complex sea level history in the region. Between ice melt and isostatic rebound, the Jutland peninsula experienced many transgression and regression events. Connections to surrounding seas have shifted throughout time, with most attention focused on the western connection of the Limfjord with the North Sea, which has experienced numerous closures and subsequent re-openings throughout the Holocene. Furthermore, the Limfjord-North Sea connection has been the focal point of research because of the west to east water flow in the system, and the present day higher salinity in the west compared to the east. Little to no consideration has been paid to the influence of the Kattegat and Baltic on the Limfjord until now. A 10m sediment core was taken from Sebbersund (near Nibe, Limfjord), along the connection between the Limfjord and the Kattegat in the east to understand how the eastern part of the system has changed and differed from changes observed in the west. The Sebbersund sequence spans a majority of the Holocene, from 9600 cal BP to 1030 cal BP, determined via radiocarbon dating of terrestrial macrofossils and bulk sediment. Over this time period palaeoenvironmental conditions were reconstructed through the use of geochemical analyses (13C, 15N, C:N), physical sediment analyses, dinoflagellate cyst abundances and molluscan analyses. apart from two instances of low salinity, one at the top and one at the bottom of the core, the sequence has a strong marine signal for a majority of the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating of bulk sediment samples showed the presence of old carbon in the system, creating an age offset between 1,300 ± 200 and 2,800 ± 200 calibrated 14C years compared to the age-depth curve based on the terrestrial macrofossils. This finding, along with the strong marine influence in the system, discerned through geochemical data, dinoflagellate cyst and mollusc counts, is important for obtaining accurate radiocarbon ages in the region and stresses the importance of understanding both the marine and freshwater reservoir effects. The marine dominance in the eastern Limfjord differs from the west, which is characterized by a number of freshwater events when the North Sea connection was closed off during the Holocene. The eastern connection was open to the Kattegat throughout a large portion of the Holocene, with influx of open ocean water entering the system during periods of higher sea level.

Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy

The branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index is based on the relative abundance of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) and the isoprenoidal GDGT crenarchaeol. In Lake Challa sediments the BIT index has been applied as a proxy for local monsoon precipitation on the assumption that the primary source of brGDGTs is soil washed in from the lake's catchment. Since then, microbial production within the water column has been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa sediments, meaning that either an alternative mechanism links BIT index variation with rainfall or that the proxy's application must be reconsidered. We investigated GDGT concentrations and BIT index variation in Lake Challa sediments at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT time-series data from 45 monthly sediment-trap samples and a chronosequence of profundal surface sediments.

Our 2200-year geochemical record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore in the BIT index, superimposed on distinct lower-frequency fluctuations at multi-decadal to century timescales. These changes in BIT index are correlated with changes in the concentration of crenarchaeol but not with those of the brGDGTs. A clue for understanding the indirect link between rainfall and crenarchaeol concentration (and thus thaumarchaeotal abundance) was provided by the observation that surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to sediments collected in August 2007. This shift is associated with increased bulk flux of settling mineral particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March–April 2008, reflecting an event of unusually high detrital input to Lake Challa concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil-erosion event is succeeded by a massive dry-season diatom bloom in July–September 2008 and a concurrent increase in the flux of GDGT-0. Complete absence of crenarchaeol in settling particles during the austral summer following this bloom indicates that no Thaumarchaeota bloom developed at that time. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from the eroded soil washed into the lake, caused the massive bloom of diatoms and that the higher concentrations of ammonium (formed from breakdown of this algal matter) resulted in a replacement of nitrifying Thaumarchaeota, which in typical years prosper during the austral summer, by nitrifying bacteria. The decomposing dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column probably also formed a substrate for GDGT-0-producing archaea. Hence, through a cascade of events, intensive rainfall affects thaumarchaeotal abundance, resulting in high BIT index values.

Decade-scale BIT index fluctuations in Lake Challa sediments exactly match the timing of three known episodes of prolonged regional drought within the past 250 years. Additionally, the principal trends of inferred rainfall variability over the past two millennia are consistent with the hydroclimatic history of equatorial East Africa, as has been documented from other (but less well dated) regional lake records. We therefore propose that variation in GDGT production originating from the episodic recurrence of strong soil-erosion events, when integrated over (multi-)decadal and longer timescales, generates a stable positive relationship between the sedimentary BIT index and monsoon rainfall at Lake Challa. Application of this paleoprecipitation proxy at other sites requires ascertaining the local processes which affect the productivity of crenarchaeol by Thaumarchaeota and brGDGTs.

Eye Spy Private High: Re-conceptualizing High Policing Theory

This paper contests traditional analyses of high policing, suggesting that it needs to be decoupled (in theoretical terms) from its umbilical linkage to public actors and the preservation and augmentation of state authority. Arguing that conventional conceptualizations of high policing fail to acknowledge the role of private actors, we adopt the term `private high policing' to more accurately reflect the complexity of this paradigm. In particular, we note a long legacy of protecting dominant interests within corporate power structures, as well as increased involvement in outsourced security services for Western states. This has reached its zenith in the recent conflict/reconstruction efforts in Iraq. Eschewing conventional notions of the `proxy' debate, we propose a more complex relationship of obfuscation whereby both public and private high policing actors cross-permeate and coalesce in the pursuit of symbiotic state and corporate objectives.

The uptake of silica during the spring bloom in the North East Atlantic Ocean

A full understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of silica in the North Atlantic is hampered by a lack of estimates of silica uptake by phytoplankton. We applied the ${}^{32}\text{Si}$ radiotracer incubation technique to determine silica uptake rates at 10 sites during the UK-(Natural Environment Research Council) Faroes-Iceland-Scotland hydrographic and environmental survey (FISHES) cruise in the Northeast Atlantic, May 2001. Column silica uptake rates ranged between 6 and 166 mmol Si $\text{m}^{-2}\ \text{d}^{-1}$; this data set was integrated with concurrent hydrographic, chemical, and primary productivity data to explain these changes in silica uptake in terms of the progress of the spring bloom. In order to interpret data covering a relatively large spatial and temporal scale, we used mean photic zone silica concentration as a proxy time-series measure of diatom bloom progression. Both absolute and specific silica uptake rates were highest at dissolved silica concentrations >2 mmol $\text{L}^{-1}$. Si and C uptake were vertically decoupled at those stations where surface silica was strongly depleted. Absolute primary productivity was not strongly correlated with dissolved silica concentrations, owing to either exhaustion of silica at diatom-dominated stations or to dominance of the community by other phytoplankton. Silica uptake as a function of increased substrate concentration was linear up to 25 $\mu \text{mol}\ \text{L}^{-1}$; we consider some possible reasons for the nonhyperbolic response.

Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Higher incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus in remote areas: a UK regional small-area analysis

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.

Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian
hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.

Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p<0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).

Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.

Determinants of Child-Parent Agreement in Quality-of-Life Reports: A European Study of Children With Cerebral Palsy

OBJECTIVES: The differences between child self-reports and parent proxy reports of quality of life in a large population of children with cerebral palsy were studied. We examined whether child characteristics, severity of impairment, socioeconomic factors, and parental stress were associated with parent proxy reports being respectively higher or lower than child self-reports of quality of life. METHODS. This study was conducted in 2004–2005 and assessed child quality of life (using the Kidscreen questionnaire, 10 domains, each scored 0–100) through self-reports and parent proxy reports of 500 children aged 8 to 12 years who had cerebral palsy and were living in 7 countries in Europe. RESULTS: The mean child-reported scores of quality of life were significantly higher than the parent proxy reports in 8 domains, significantly lower for the finances domain, and similar for the emotions domain. The average frequency of disagreement (child-parent difference greater than half an SD of child scores) over all domains was 64%, with parents rating their child’s quality of life lower than the children themselves in 29% to 57% of child-parent pairs. We found that high levels of stress in parenting negatively influenced parents’ perception of their child’s quality of life, whereas the main factor explaining parents’ ratings of children’s quality of life higher than the children themselves is self-reported severe child pain. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the factors associated with disagreement are different according to the direction of disagreement. In particular, parental wellbeing and child pain should be taken into account in the interpretation of parent proxy reports, especially when no child self-report of quality of life is available. In the latter cases, it may be advisable to obtain additional proxy reports (from caregivers, teachers, or clinicians) to obtain complementary information on the child’s quality of life.

Solar forcing of climate change during the mid-Holocene: indications from raised bogs in the Netherlands.

Two cores of mid-Holocene raised-bog deposits from the Netherlands were 14C wiggle-match dated at high precision. Changes in local moisture conditions were inferred from the changing species composition of consecutive series of macrofossil samples. Several wet-shifts were inferred, and these were often coeval with major rises in the D14C archive (probably caused by major declines in solar activity). The use of D14C as a proxy for changes in solar activity is validated. This paper adds to the increasing body of evidence that solar variability forced climatic changes during the Holocene.

Sub-fossil Insects and ecosystem dynamics in wetlands; implications for biodiversity and conservation.

We review the uses of fossil insects, particularly Coleoptera (beetles) and Chironomidae (non-biting midges) from ancient deposits to inform the study of wetland ecosystems and their ecological and restoration processes. In particular, we focus on two contrasting ecosystems, drawing upon research undertaken by us on British raised mire peats and shallow lake systems, one an essentially terrestrial ecosystem, the other aquatic, but in which wetland insects play an important and integral part. The study of raised mire peats suggests that faunal stability is a characteristic of these wetland systems, over what appear to be extensive periods of time (up to several millennia), whilst studies of shallow lake ecosystems over recent timescales indicates that faunal instability appears to be more common, usually driven by increasing eutrophication. Drawing upon a series of fossil Coleoptera records spanning several thousand years from Hatfield Moors, south Yorkshire, we reconstruct in some detail the mire’s ontogeny and fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, illustrating the intimate association between substrate, topography and peat development. A comparison between fossil and modern beetle populations indicates that the faunal characteristics of this mire and its adjacent neighbour, Thorne Moors, become established during the early phases of peat development, including its rare endemics, and that the faunal biodiversity on the sites today is dictated by complex site histories. The over-riding characteristic of these faunas is of stability over several thousand years, which has important implications for the restoration of degraded sites, especially those where refugial areas are limited. In contrast, analyses of fossil Chironomidae from shallow lakes allow researchers to track changes in limnological status and while attempts have been made to reconstruct changes in nutrient levels quantitatively, the chironomids respond indirectly to such changes, typically mediated through complex ecosystem dynamics such as changes in fish and/or macrophyte communities. These changes are illustrated via historic chironomid stratigraphies and diversity indices from a range of shallow lakes located across Britain: Slapton Ley, Frensham Great Pond, Fleet Pond, Kyre Pool and Barnes Loch. These sites have shown varying degrees of eutrophication over recent timescales which tends to be associated with a decline in chironomid diversity. While complex functional processes exist within these ecosystems, our evidence suggests that one of the key drivers in the loss of shallow lake chironomid diversity appears to be the loss of aquatic macrophytes. Overall, while chironomids do show a clear response to altered nutrient regimes, multi-proxy reconstructions are recommended for a clear interpretation of past change. We conclude that if we are to have a better understanding of biota at the ecosystem level we need to know more of the complex interactions between different insect groups as well as with other animal and plant communities. A palaeoecological approach is thus crucial in order to assess the role of insect groups in ecosystem processes, both in the recent past and over long time scales, and is essential for wetland managers and conservation organisations involved in long term management and restoration of wetland systems.

Testing the palaeoclimatic significance of the Northern Irish bog oak record

We present an analysis of the Northern Irish bog oak record presented in Turney et al. (2005) for the last 4500 years. The record is compared with a compiled peatland water table record from the same region and palaeohydrological data from northern England and mid-latitude Europe. It is apparent that there is no consistent relationship between the population frequency of Irish bog oaks and the palaeohydrological reconstructions, illustrating that the record is not reflecting wetness changes in peatlands. We suggest that the bog oaks should be scrutinised on a within-site and a site-by-site basis to assess the spatial coherency of the shifts in tree populations and the synchronicity of phases of germination and dying off (GDO). Further work is needed to critically examine the controls on the establishment and demise of bog oaks on Irish peatlands before these data can be used as a palaeoclimate proxy. Only then can they be used to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change.

How fragmented was the British Holocene wildwood? Perspectives on the “Vera” grazing debate from the fossil beetle record

The reconstruction and structure of the European Holocene “wildwood” has been the focus of considerable academic debate. The ability of palaeoecological data and particularly pollen analysis to accurately reflect the density of wildwood canopy has also been widely discussed. Fossil insects, as a proxy for vegetation and landscape structure, provide a potential approach to address this argument. Here, we present a review and re-analysis of 36 early and mid-Holocene (9500-2000 cal BC) sub-fossil beetle assemblages from Britain, examining percentage values of tree, open ground and dung beetles as well as tree host data to gain an insight into vegetation structure, the role of grazing animals in driving such structure and establish independently the importance of different types of trees and associated shading in the early Holocene “wildwood”. Open indicator beetle species are persistently present over the entire review period, although they fluctuate in importance. During the early Holocene (9500-6000 cal BC), these indicators are initially high, at levels which are not dissimilar to modern data from pasture woodland. However, during the latter stages of this and the next period, 6000-4000 cal BC, open ground and pasture indicators decline and are generally low compared with previously. Alongside this pattern, we see woodland indicators generally increase in importance, although there are significant local fluctuations. Levels of dung beetles are mostly low over these periods, with some exceptions to this pattern, especially towards the end of the Mesolithic and in floodplain areas. Host data associated with the fossil beetles indicate that trees associated with lighter canopy conditions such as oak, pine, hazel and birch are indeed important components of the tree canopy during the earlier Holocene (c. 9500-6000 cal BC), in accordance with much of the current pollen literature. Beetles associated with more shade-tolerant trees (such as lime and elm) become more frequent in the middle Holocene (6000-4000 cal BC) suggesting that at this stage the woodland canopy was less open than previously, although open ground and pasture areas appear to have persisted in some locations. The onset of agriculture (4000-2000 cal BC) coincides with significant fluctuations in woodland composition and taxa. This is presumably as a result of human impact, although here there are significant regional variations. There are also increases in the amounts of open ground represented and especially in the levels of dung beetles present in faunas, suggesting there is a direct relationship between the activities of grazing animals and the development of more open areas. One of the most striking aspects of this review is the variable nature of the landscape suggested by the palaeoecological data, particularly but not exclusively with the onset of agriculture: some earlier sites indicate high variability between levels of tree-associated species on the one hand and the open ground beetle fauna on the other, indicating that in some locations, open areas were of local significance and can be regarded as important features of the Holocene landscape. The role of grazing animals in creating these areas of openness was apparently minimal until the onset of the Neolithic.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator

External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions(1). Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-richmiddle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few(2-4), especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional (similar to 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

Climate drivers for peatland palaeoclimate records

Reconstruction of hydroclimate variability is an important part of understanding natural climate change on decadal to millennial timescales. Peatland records reconstruct 'bog surface wetness' (BSW) changes, but it is unclear whether it is a relative dominance of precipitation or temperature that has driven these variations over Holocene timescales. Previously, correlations with instrumental climate data implied that precipitation is the dominant control. However, a recent chironomid inferred July temperature record suggested temperature changes were synchronous with BSW over the mid-late Holocene. This paper provides new analyses of these data to test competing hypotheses of climate controls on bog surface wetness and discusses some of the distal drivers of large-scale spatial patterns of BSW change. Using statistically based estimates of uncertainty in chronologies and proxy records, we show a correlation between Holocene summer temperature and BSW is plausible, but that chronologies are insufficiently precise to demonstrate this conclusively. Simulated summer moisture deficit changes for the last 6000 years forced by temperature alone are relatively small compared with observations over the 20th century. Instrumental records show that summer moisture deficit provides the best explanatory variable for measured water table changes and is more strongly correlated with precipitation than with temperature in both Estonia and the UK. We conclude that BSW is driven primarily by precipitation, reinforced by temperature, which is negatively correlated with precipitation and therefore usually forces summer moisture deficit in the same direction. In western Europe, BSW records are likely to be forced by changes in the strength and location of westerlies, linked to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and atmospheric circulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cooling and changing seasonality in the Southern Alps, New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal

A comprehensively C-14 AMS dated pollen and chironomid record from Boundary Stream Tarn provides the first chironomid-derived temperature reconstruction to quantify temperature change during Lateglacial times (17,500-10,000 cal yr BP) in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. The records indicate a ca 1000-year disruption to the Lateglacial warming trend and an overall cooling consistent with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR). The main interval of chironomid-inferred summer temperature depression (similar to 2-3 degrees C) lasted about 700 years during the ACR. Following this cooling event, both proxies indicate a warming step to temperatures slightly cooler than present during the Younger Dryas chronozone (12,900-11,500 cal yr BP). These results highlight a direct linkage between Antarctica and mid-latitude terrestrial climate systems and the largely asynchronous nature of the interhemispheric climate system during the last glacial transition. The greater magnitude of temperature changes shown by the chironomid record is attributed to the response of the proxies to differences in seasonal climate with chironomids reflecting summer temperature and vegetation more strongly controlled by duration of winter or by minimum temperatures. These differences imply stronger seasonality at times during the Lateglacial, which may explain some of the variability between other paleoclimate records from New Zealand and have wider implications for understanding differences between proxy records for abrupt climate change. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.