41 resultados para Projections temporelles


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Ten million people in the UK today are aged over 65. The latest projections estimate that there will be 5 1/2 million more people aged 65 and older in the next 20 years. This projected pattern of population ageing will have profound consequences for dentistry. Minimal intervention dentistry (MID) is a modern evidence-based approach to caries management in dentate patients that uses the 'medical model' whereby disease is controlled by the 'oral physician'. This approach offers considerable benefits over conventional dentistry for older patients. It encourages patients to be responsible for their oral health through the provision of both knowledge and motivation. MID encompasses risk assessment for dental disease, early detection and control of disease processes, and minimally invasive treatment. 

Clinical Relevance: Risk assessment tools can aid the general dental practitioner and the patient to develop a suitable caries prevention programme for that individual and reduce the need for future operative intervention.

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Despite recent advances in the understanding of the interplay between a dynamic physical environment and phylogeography in Europe, the origins of contemporary Irish biota remain uncertain. Current thinking is that Ireland was colonized post-glacially from southern European refugia, following the end of the last glacial maximum(LGM), some 20 000 years BP. The Leisler’s bat (Nyctalus leisleri), one of the few native Irish mammal species, is widely distributed throughout Europe but, with the exception of Ireland, is generally rare and considered vulnerable. We investigate the origins and phylogeographic relationships of Irish populations in relation to those across Europe, including the closely related species N. azoreum. We use a combination of approaches, including mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers, in addition to approximate Bayesian computation and palaeo-climatic species distribution modelling. Molecular analyses revealed two distinct and diverse European mitochondrialDNAlineages,which probably diverged in separate glacial refugia. Awestern lineage, restricted to Ireland, Britain and the Azores, comprises Irish and British N. leisleri and N. azoreum specimens; an eastern lineage is distributed throughout mainland Europe. Palaeo-climatic projections indicate suitable habitats during the LGM, including known glacial refugia, in addition to potential novel cryptic refugia along the western fringe of Europe. These results may be applicable to populations of many species.

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Paired Associative Stimulation (PAS) has come to prominence as a potential therapeutic intervention for the treatment of brain injury/disease, and as an experimental method with which to investigate Hebbian principles of neural plasticity in humans. Prototypically, a single electrical stimulus is directed to a peripheral nerve in advance of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) delivered to the contralateral primary motor cortex (M1). Repeated pairing of the stimuli (i.e., association) over an extended period may increase or decrease the excitability of corticospinal projections from M1, in manner that depends on the interstimulus interval (ISI). It has been suggested that these effects represent a form of associative long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) that bears resemblance to spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) as it has been elaborated in animal models. With a large body of empirical evidence having emerged since the cardinal features of PAS were first described, and in light of the variations from the original protocols that have been implemented, it is opportune to consider whether the phenomenology of PAS remains consistent with the characteristic features that were initially disclosed. This assessment necessarily has bearing upon interpretation of the effects of PAS in relation to the specific cellular pathways that are putatively engaged, including those that adhere to the rules of STDP. The balance of evidence suggests that the mechanisms that contribute to the LTP- and LTD-type responses to PAS differ depending on the precise nature of the induction protocol that is used. In addition to emphasizing the requirement for additional explanatory models, in the present analysis we highlight the key features of the PAS phenomenology that require interpretation.

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Through the concept of sonic resonance, the project Cidade Museu – Museum City explores five derelict or transitional spaces in the city of Viseu. The activation and capture of these spaces develops an audio- visual memory that reflects architectures, stories and experiences, while creating a sense of place through sounds and images.

The project brings together musicians with a background in contemporary music, electroacoustic music and improvisation and a visual artist focusing on photography and video.

Each member of the collective explores the selected spaces in order to activate them with the help of their respective instruments and through sound projection in an iterative process in which the source of activation gradually gives way to the characteristics of each space, their resonances and acoustic characteristics. The museum city (a nickname for the city of Viseu), in this performance, exposes the contrast between the grandeur and multi-faceted architecture of Viseu’s Cathedral with spaces that spread throughout the city waiting for a new future.

The performance in the Cathedral (Sé) is characterised by a trio ensemble, an eight channel sound system and video projecting audio recordings and images made in each of the five spaces. The audience is invited to explore the relations between the various buildings and their stories while being immersed in their resonances and visual projections.

The performance explores the following spaces in Viseu: the old Orfeão (music hall), an old wine cellar, a mansion home to the national road services, a house with its grounds in Rua Silva Gaio and an old slaughterhouse.

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OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

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Climate model projections suggestwidespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era.
The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries
reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

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An outlier removal based data cleaning technique is proposed to
clean manually pre-segmented human skin data in colour images.
The 3-dimensional colour data is projected onto three 2-dimensional
planes, from which outliers are removed. The cleaned 2 dimensional
data projections are merged to yield a 3D clean RGB data. This data
is finally used to build a look up table and a single Gaussian classifier
for the purpose of human skin detection in colour images.

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Quantifying the similarity between two trajectories is a fundamental operation in analysis of spatio-temporal databases. While a number of distance functions exist, the recent shift in the dynamics of the trajectory generation procedure violates one of their core assumptions; a consistent and uniform sampling rate. In this paper, we formulate a robust distance function called Edit Distance with Projections (EDwP) to match trajectories under inconsistent and variable sampling rates through dynamic interpolation. This is achieved by deploying the idea of projections that goes beyond matching only the sampled points while aligning trajectories. To enable efficient trajectory retrievals using EDwP, we design an index structure called TrajTree. TrajTree derives its pruning power by employing the unique combination of bounding boxes with Lipschitz embedding. Extensive experiments on real trajectory databases demonstrate EDwP to be up to 5 times more accurate than the state-of-the-art distance functions. Additionally, TrajTree increases the efficiency of trajectory retrievals by up to an order of magnitude over existing techniques.

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It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

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Microneedles (MNs) are minimally invasive devices consisting of numerous micron-sized projections amassed on a baseplate, designed to enhance transdermal drug delivery. When applied to the skin, the needles puncture the outermost layer, the stratum corneum, forming aqueous conduits through which drugs can diffuse to the dermal microcirculation. With an average length of 50-900 μm, MNs are short enough to avoid stimulation of dermal nerves and do not induce bleeding, yet gain access to the skin's rich microcirculation for drug delivery. MNs have been extensively investigated for drug and vaccine delivery, demonstrating their efficacy at increasing the number of compounds amenable to delivery through the skin. This chapter discusses the materials and fabrication methods involved in MN production, alongside the different types of MN arrays and their delivery capabilities. The field has expanded to consider novel applications of MNs including minimally invasive patient monitoring, ocular delivery and enhanced administration of cosmeceuticals. Patient usage and effects on the skin are also considered in terms of safety, efficacy and acceptability. The next steps in MN development are to focus on the scale-up of manufacturing processes, a challenge considering the number of small-scale methods detailed in the literature. Regulatory guidance is awaited to direct this, alongside provision of clearer patient instruction for safe and effective use of MN devices. MNs have tremendous potential to yield real benefits for patients and industry and with continued research in the key areas highlighted, this will begin to be realised over the next number of years.

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Cross education is the process whereby training of one limb gives rise to increases in the subsequent performance of its opposite counterpart. The execution of many unilateral tasks is associated with increased excitability of corticospinal projections from primary motor cortex (M1) to the opposite limb. It has been proposed that these effects are causally related. Our aim was to establish whether changes in corticospinal excitability arising from prior training of the opposite limb determine levels of interlimb transfer.

We used three vision conditions shown previously to modulate the excitability of corticospinal projections to the inactive (right) limb during wrist flexion movements performed by the training (left) limb. These were: mirrored visual feedback of the training limb; no visual feedback of either limb; and visual feedback of the inactive limb. Training comprised 300 discrete, ballistic wrist flexion movements executed as rapidly as possible. Performance of the right limb on the same task was assessed prior to, at the mid point of, and following left limb training.

There was no evidence that variations in the excitability of corticospinal projections (assessed by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)) to the inactive limb were associated with, or predictive of, the extent of interlimb transfer that was expressed. There were however associations between alterations in muscle activation dynamics observed for the untrained limb, and the degree of positive transfer that arose from training of the opposite limb.

The results suggest that the acute adaptations that mediate the bilateral performance gains realised through unilateral practice of this ballistic wrist flexion task are mediated by neural elements other than those within M1 that are recruited at rest by single-pulse TMS.