The Relevance Framework for Category-Based Induction: Evidence From Garden-Path Arguments

Relevance theory (Sperber & Wilson. 1995) suggests that people expend cognitive effort when processing information in proportion to the cognitive effects to be gained from doing so. This theory has been used to explain how people apply their knowledge appropriately when evaluating category-based inductive arguments (Medin, Coley, Storms, & Hayes, 2003). In such arguments, people are told that a property is true of premise categories and are asked to evaluate the likelihood that it is also true of conclusion categories. According to the relevance framework, reasoners generate hypotheses about the relevant relation between the categories in the argument. We reasoned that premises inconsistent with early hypotheses about the relevant relation would have greater effects than consistent premises. We designed three premise garden-path arguments where the same 3rd premise was either consistent or inconsistent with likely hypotheses about the relevant relation. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that effort expended processing consistent premises (measured via reading times) was significantly less than effort expended on inconsistent premises. In Experiment 2 and 3, we demonstrated a direct relation between cognitive effect and cognitive effort. For garden-path arguments, belief change given inconsistent 3rd premises was significantly correlated with Premise 3 (Experiment 3) and conclusion (Experiments 2 and 3) reading times. For consistent arguments, the correlation between belief change and reading times did not approach significance. These results support the relevance framework for induction but are difficult to accommodate under other approaches.

Transonic Aeroelastic Stability Predictions Under the Influence of Structural Variability

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is almost always deterministic in nature, based on a single structural model that is assumed to represent a fleet of aircraft. However, it is also recognized that there can be significant structural variability, even for different flights of the same aircraft. The safety factor used for flutter clearance is in part meant to account for this variability. Simulation tools can, however, represent the consequences of structural variability in the flutter predictions, providing extra information that could be useful in planning physical tests and assessing risk. The main problem arising for this type of calculation when using high-fidelity tools based on computational fluid dynamics is the computational cost. The current paper uses an eigenvalue-based stability method together with Euler-level aerodynamics and different methods for propagating structural variability to stability predictions. The propagation methods are Monte Carlo, perturbation, and interval analysis. The feasibility of this type of analysis is demonstrated. Results are presented for the Goland wing and a generic fighter configuration.

Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Nash equilibria of network formation games under consent

We investigate the Nash equilibria of game theoretic models of network formation based on explicit consent in link formation. These so-called “consent models” explicitly take account of link formation costs. We provide characterizations of Nash equilibria of such consent models under both one-sided and two-sided costs of link formation. We relate these equilibrium concepts to link-based stability concepts, in particular strong link deletion proofness.

Instituting order: the limitations of Nasser’s post-colonial planning visions for Cairo in the case of the indigenous quarter of Bulaq (1952–1970)

This paper investigates the limitations of postcolonial planning practices that aimed to modernise Cairo’s urban spaces during Gamal Abdel Nasser rule (1952–70). Following the Free Officers revolution of 1952, ambition to display urban order through forceful change in the city’s built environment was in action. Nasser’s visions of modernity were explicit in a series of attempts to reshape several prime locations in central Cairo, which included the old traditional waterfront quarter, in Bulaq Abul Ela. An analysis of the Bulaq planning scheme drafted in 1966 reveals insights into how notions of order were spatialised to integrate with Cairo’s complex urban fabric. The official plans to regularise Bulaq also strongly demonstrates how this was a top-down, centralised process in terms of governance, with full utilisation of state resources, namely the military and the media. From a wider perspective, planning practices under Nasser demonstrated an evident break with the past to eliminate memories of colonisation and disorder. Drawing on original resources, archival material, meeting minutes and maps of this historical but dilapidated quarter of Cairo, this paper gives an insight into how Nasser’s government attempted to convey a sense of order in a revolutionary country without, however, having an understanding of order as a coherent, multilayered and sequential process of change.

A material model for multiaxial stretching and stress relaxation of polypropylene under process conditions

Polypropylene sheets have been stretched at 160 °C to a state of large biaxial strain of extension ratio 3, and the stresses then allowed to relax at constant strain. The state of strain is reached via a path consisting of two sequential planar extensions, the second perpendicular to the first, under plane stress conditions with zero stress acting normal to the sheet. This strain path is highly relevant to solid phase deformation processes such as stretch blow moulding and thermoforming, and also reveals fundamental aspects of the flow rule required in the constitutive behaviour of the material. The rate of decay of stress is rapid, and such as to be highly significant in the modelling of processes that include stages of constant strain. A constitutive equation is developed that includes Eyring processes to model both the stress relaxation and strain rate dependence of the stress. The axial and transverse stresses observed during loading show that the use of a conventional Levy-Mises flow rule is ineffective, and instead a flow rule is used that takes account of the anisotropic state of the material via a power law function of the principal extension ratios. Finally the constitutive model is demonstrated to give quantitatively useful representation of the stresses both in loading and in stress relaxation.

New challenges faced by carers during their child's hospital admission under segregation

Introduction
This paper presents the results of a qualitative study of CF family carers at the Belfast Paediatric CF Centre. The aim of this study was to describe the carer experience of their child’s admission to hospital under segregated care arrangements, and to highlight the meaning of segregation and cross infection from the carer perspective.

Method
Carers of children with CF who were admitted for two week IV antibiotic treatment during the study period were eligible to participate in this qualitative study. A consecutive series of eligible carers were approached in order of admission and within the time constraints of KR who was present two days each week. Recruitment of carers ended when no new themes emerged. Ten carers, 9 mothers and 1 couple, were interviewed about their experiences (mean age of child: 11.8 years; range: 1-17 years). Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) was used to analyse and interpret the interview data.

Results and discussion
Balancing demands and dilemmas was the main contextual theme or experience of being a carer of a child with CF, and particularly so during admission to hospital. Many decisions were required every day that resulted in ‘double binds’ comprising uncertainty and stress. Three secondary themes captured the essence of carers’ experiences specifically related to segregation: managing risk and uncertainty; the burden of admission; and getting through each day. These themes will be described with examples illustrating the challenges faced by carers during their child’s hospitalisation, and the impact of segregation upon carers.

Between Order and Modernity: Resurgence Planning in Revolutionary Egypt

Egypt’s Revolution of 1952 presented a major historical change to its political and economic structure, its society, and its institutions. This paper examines how Nasser’s regime operated through the state apparatus to exhibit features of modernity. Under the pretext of modernization, renovating Cairo’s authentic urban fabric was one of the channels that displayed the new ambitions to unveil a centralized system of governance and ideologies of socialism. The paper particularly looks at the city’s resurgence attempts, promoted by upgrading practices that displayed Western ideals of planning. Eventually, the contradictory planning legislative system introduced by the government raised early alarms at the problems encountered in the planning institution that was not only unable to liberate Cairo’s urban districts from its long-rooted decay, but also struggled to implement the regime’s flagship policy of social justice in a context wherein it was much needed.

Advantages and limitations of navigation-based multicriteria optimization (MCO) for localized prostate cancer IMRT planning

Efficacy of inverse planning is becoming increasingly important for advanced radiotherapy techniques. This study's aims were to validate multicriteria optimization (MCO) in RayStation (v2.4, RaySearch Laboratories, Sweden) against standard intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization in Oncentra (v4.1, Nucletron BV, the Netherlands) and characterize dose differences due to conversion of navigated MCO plans into deliverable multileaf collimator apertures. Step-and-shoot IMRT plans were created for 10 patients with localized prostate cancer using both standard optimization and MCO. Acceptable standard IMRT plans with minimal average rectal dose were chosen for comparison with deliverable MCO plans. The trade-off was, for the MCO plans, managed through a user interface that permits continuous navigation between fluence-based plans. Navigated MCO plans were made deliverable at incremental steps along a trajectory between maximal target homogeneity and maximal rectal sparing. Dosimetric differences between navigated and deliverable MCO plans were also quantified. MCO plans, chosen as acceptable under navigated and deliverable conditions resulted in similar rectal sparing compared with standard optimization (33.7 ± 1.8Gy vs 35.5 ± 4.2Gy, p = 0.117). The dose differences between navigated and deliverable MCO plans increased as higher priority was placed on rectal avoidance. If the best possible deliverable MCO was chosen, a significant reduction in rectal dose was observed in comparison with standard optimization (30.6 ± 1.4Gy vs 35.5 ± 4.2Gy, p = 0.047). Improvements were, however, to some extent, at the expense of less conformal dose distributions, which resulted in significantly higher doses to the bladder for 2 of the 3 tolerance levels. In conclusion, similar IMRT plans can be created for patients with prostate cancer using MCO compared with standard optimization. Limitations exist within MCO regarding conversion of navigated plans to deliverable apertures, particularly for plans that emphasize avoidance of critical structures. Minimizing these differences would result in better quality treatments for patients with prostate cancer who were treated with radiotherapy using MCO plans.

Planning, Devolution and the Territorialisation of Wind Energy in the UK

The decarbonisation of energy systems draw a new set of stakeholders into debates over energy generation, engage a complex set of social, political, economic and environmental processes and impact at a wide range of geographical scales, including local landscape changes, national energy markets and regional infrastructure investment. This paper focusses on a particular geographic scale, that of the regions/nations of the UK (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), who have been operating under devolved arrangements since the late 1990s, coinciding with the mass deployment of wind energy. The devolved administrations of the UK possess an asymmetrical set of competencies over energy policy, yet also host the majority of the UK wind resource. This context provides a useful way to consider the different ways in which geographies of "territory" are reflected in energy governance, such through techno-rational assessments of demand or infrastructure investment, but also through new spatially-defined institutions that seek to develop their own energy future, using limited regulatory competencies. By focussing on the way the devolved administrations have used their responsibilities for planning over the last decade this paper will assess the way in which the spatial politics of wind energy is giving rise to renewed forms of territorialisation of natural resources. In so doing, we aim to contribute to clarifying the questions raised by Hodson and Marvin (2013) on whether low carbon futures will reinforce or challenge dominant ways of organising relationships between the nation-state, regions, energy systems and the environment.

AgentSpeak+: AgentSpeak with Probabilistic Planning

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

Wetting of compacted clays under laterally restrained conditions: Initial state, overburden pressure and mineralogy

Compacted clay fills are generally placed at the optimum value of water content and, immediately after placement, they are unsaturated. Wetting might subsequently occur due, for example, to rainfall infiltration, which can cause volumetric deformation of the fill (either swell or collapse) with associated loss of shear strength and structural integrity. If swelling takes place under partially restrained deformation, due for example to the presence of a buried rigid structure or a retaining wall, additional stresses will develop in the soil and these can be detrimental to the stability of walling elements and other building assets. Factors such as dry density, overburden pressure, compaction water content and type of clay are known to influence the development of stresses. This paper investigates these factors by means of an advanced stress path testing programme performed on four different clays with different mineralogy, index properties and geological histories. Specimens of kaolin clay, London Clay, Belfast Clay and Ampthill Clay were prepared at different initial states and subjected to ‘controlled’ wetting, whereby the suction was reduced gradually to zero under laterally restrainedconditions (i.e. K0 conditions). The results showed that the magnitude of the increase in horizontal stresses (and therefore the increase of K0) is influenced by the overburden pressure, compaction water content, dry density at the time of compaction and mineralogy.

An Ambiguity Aversion Framework of Security Game under Ambiguities

Security is a critical concern around the world. Since resources for security are always limited, lots of interest have arisen in using game theory to handle security resource allocation problems. However, most of the existing work does not address adequately how a defender chooses his optimal strategy in a game with absent, inaccurate, uncertain, and even ambiguous strategy profiles' payoffs. To address this issue, we propose a general framework of security games under ambiguities based on Dempster-Shafer theory and the ambiguity aversion principle of minimax regret. Then, we reveal some properties of this framework. Also, we present two methods to reduce the influence of complete ignorance. Our investigation shows that this new framework is better in handling security resource allocation problems under ambiguities.

The Day After Tomorrow: Transition Management, Spatial Planning & the Low Carbon Economy

Many of the societal challenges that current spatial planning practice claims to be addressing (climate change, peak oil, obesity, aging society etc) encompass issues and timescales that lie beyond the traditional scope planning policy (Campbell 2006). The example of achieving a low carbon economy typifies this in that it demands a process of society-wide transition, involving steering a wide range of factors (markets, infrastructure, governance, individual behaviour etc). Such a process offers a challenge to traditional approaches to planning as they cannot be guided by a fixed blueprint, given the timescales involved (up to 50 years) and an enhanced level of uncertainty, social resistance, lack of control over implementation and a danger of ‘policy lock in’ (Kemp et al 2007). One approach to responding to these challenges is the concept of transition management which has emerged from studies of science, technology and innovation (Geels 2002, Markard et al 2012). Although not without criticism, this perspective attempts to uncertainty and complexity encompassing long term visions that integrates multi-level, multi-actor and multi-domain perspectives (Rotmans et al 2001).
 
Given its origins, research on transition management has tended to neglect spatial contexts (Coenen et al 2012) and, related to this, it’s relationship with spatial planning is poorly understood. Using the example of the low carbon transition, this paper will review the relationships between the concepts, methodologies and goals of transition management and spatial planning to explore whether a closer integration of the two fields offers benefits to achieving the long term challenges facing society.