Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

The impact of body mass index on maternal and neonatal outcomes: a retrospective study in a UK obstetric population, 2004-2011

Objective: To assess the prevalence of overweight and obesity, and the impact of body mass index (BMI) on maternal and neonatal outcomes, in a UK obstetric population.
Design: Retrospective study.
Setting: A tertiary referral unit in Northern Ireland.
Population: A total of 30 298 singleton pregnancies over an 8-year period, 2004–2011.
Methods: Women were categorised according to World Health Organization classification: underweight (BMI < 18.50 kg/m2); normal weight (BMI 18.50–24.99 kg/m2; reference group); overweight (BMI 25.00–29.99 kg/m2); obese class I (BMI 30.00–34.99 kg/m2); obese class II (BMI 35–39.99 kg/m2); and obese class III (BMI = 40 kg/m2). Maternal and neonatal outcomes were examined using logistic regression, adjusted for confounding variables.
Main outcome measures: Maternal and neonatal outcomes.
Results: Compared with women of normal weight, women who were overweight or obese class I were at significantly increased risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (OR 1.9, 99% CI 1.7–2.3; OR 3.5, 99% CI 2.9–4.2); gestational diabetes mellitus (OR 1.7, 99% CI 1.3–2.3; OR 3.7, 99% CI 2.8–5.0); induction of labour (OR 1.2, 99% CI 1.1–1.3; OR 1.3, 99% CI 1.2–1.5); caesarean section (OR 1.4, 99% CI 1.3–1.5; OR 1.8, 99% CI 1.6–2.0); postpartum haemorrhage (OR 1.4, 99% CI 1.3–1.5; OR 1.8, 1.6–2.0); and macrosomia (OR 1.5, 99% CI 1.3–1.6; OR 1.9, 99% CI 1.6–2.2), with the risks increasing for obese classes II and III. Women in obese class III were at increased risk of preterm delivery (OR 1.6, 99% CI 1.1–2.5), stillbirth (OR 3.0, 99% CI 1.0–9.3), postnatal stay > 5 days (OR 2.1, 99% CI 1.5–3.1), and infant requiring admission to a neonatal unit (OR 1.6, 99% CI 1.0–2.6).
Conclusions: By categorising women into overweight and obesity subclassifications (classes I –III), this study clearly demonstrates an increasing risk of adverse outcomes across BMI categories, with women who are overweight also at significant risk.
Keywords Body mass index, maternal and neonatal outcomes,obesity, pregnancy

Inorganic arsenic in Chinese food and its cancer risk

Even moderate arsenic exposure may lead to health problems, and thus quantifying inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure from food for different population groups in China is essential. By analyzing the data from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) and collecting reported values of iAs in major food groups, we developed a framework of calculating average iAs daily intake for different regions of China. Based on this framework, cancer risks from As in food was deterministically and probabilistically quantified. The article presents estimates for health risk due to the ingestion of food products contaminated with arsenic. Both per individual and for total population estimates were obtained. For the total population, daily iAs intake is around 42 mu g day(-1), and rice is the largest contributor of total iAs intake accounting for about 60%. Incremental lifetime cancer risk from food iAs intake is 106 per 100,000 for adult individuals and the median population cancer risk is 177 per 100,000 varying between regions. Population in the Southern region has a higher cancer risk than that in the Northern region and the total population. Sensitive analysis indicated that cancer slope factor, ingestion rates of rice, aquatic products and iAs concentration in rice were the most relevant variables in the model, as indicated by their higher contribution to variance of the incremental lifetime cancer risk. We conclude that rice may be the largest contributor of iAs through food route for the Chinese people. The population from the South has greater cancer risk than that from the North and the whole population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.