Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

Application of a mechanobiological simulation technique to stents used clinically

Many cardiovascular diseases are characterised by the restriction of blood flow through arteries. Stents can be expanded within arteries to remove such restrictions; however, tissue in-growth into the stent can lead to restenosis. In order to predict the long-term efficacy of stenting, a mechanobiological model of the arterial tissue reaction to stress is required. In this study, a computational model of arterial tissue response to stenting is applied to three clinically relevant stent designs. We ask the question whether such a mechanobiological model can differentiate between stents used clinically, and we compare these predictions to a purely mechanical analysis. In doing so, we are testing the hypothesis that a mechanobiological model of arterial tissue response to injury could predict the long-term outcomes of stent design. Finite element analysis of the expansion of three different stent types was performed in an idealised, 3D artery. Injury was calculated in the arterial tissue using a remaining-life damage mechanics approach. The inflammatory response to this initial injury was modelled using equations governing variables which represented tissue-degrading species and growth factors. Three levels of inflammation response were modelled to account for inter-patient variability. A lattice-based model of smooth muscle cell behaviour was implemented, treating cells as discrete agents governed by local rules. The simulations predicted differences between stent designs similar to those found in vivo. It showed that the volume of neointima produced could be quantified, providing a quantitative comparison of stents. In contrast, the differences between stents based on stress alone were highly dependent on the choice of comparison criteria. These results show that the choice of stress criteria for stent comparisons is critical. This study shows that mechanobiological modelling may provide a valuable tool in stent design, allowing predictions of their long-term efficacy. The level of inflammation was shown to affect the sensitivity of the model to stent design. If this finding was verified in patients, this could suggest that high-inflammation patients may require alternative treatments to stenting.

Limitations of Global Kinetic Parameters for Automotive Application

With emission legislation becoming ever more stringent, automotive companies are forced to invest heavily into solutions to meet the targets set. To date the most effective way of treating emissions is through the use of catalytic converters. Current testing methods of catalytic converters whether being tested on a vehicle or in a lab reactor can be expensive and offer little information about what is occurring within the catalyst. It is for this reason and the increased price of precious metal that kinetic modelling has become a popular alternative to experimental testing.

Testing metabolic scaling theory using intraspecific allometries in Antarctic microarthropods

Quantitative scaling relationships among body mass, temperature and metabolic rate of organisms are still controversial, while resolution may be further complicated through the use of different and possibly inappropriate approaches to statistical analysis. We propose the application of a modelling strategy based on the theoretical approach of Akaike's information criteria and non-linear model fitting (nlm). Accordingly, we collated and modelled available data at intraspecific level on the individual standard metabolic rate of Antarctic microarthropods as a function of body mass (M), temperature (T), species identity (S) and high rank taxa to which species belong (G) and tested predictions from metabolic scaling theory (mass-metabolism allometric exponent b = 0.75, activation energy range 0.2-1.2 eV). We also performed allometric analysis based on logarithmic transformations (lm). Conclusions from lm and nlm approaches were different. Best-supported models from lm incorporated T, M and S. The estimates of the allometric scaling exponent linking body mass and metabolic rate resulted in a value of 0.696 +/- 0.105 (mean +/- 95% CI). In contrast, the four best-supported nlm models suggested that both the scaling exponent and activation energy significantly vary across the high rank taxa (Collembola, Cryptostigmata, Mesostigmata and Prostigmata) to which species belong, with mean values of b ranging from about 0.6 to 0.8. We therefore reached two conclusions: 1, published analyses of arthropod metabolism based on logarithmic data may be biased by data transformation; 2, non-linear models applied to Antarctic microarthropod metabolic rate suggest that intraspecific scaling of standard metabolic rate in Antarctic microarthropods is highly variable and can be characterised by scaling exponents that greatly vary within taxa, which may have biased previous interspecific comparisons that neglected intraspecific variability.

Application of factor analysis and geostatistics to identify processes controlling the distribution and bioaccessibility of trace elements in Northern Ireland soils

Geologic and environmental factors acting over varying spatial scales can control
trace element distribution and mobility in soils. In turn, the mobility of an element in soil will affect its oral bioaccessibility. Geostatistics, kriging and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to explore factors and spatial ranges of influence over a suite of 8 element oxides, soil organic carbon (SOC), pH, and the trace elements nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn). Bioaccessibility testing was carried out previously using the Unified BARGE Method on a sub-set of 91 soil samples from the Northern Ireland Tellus1 soil archive. Initial spatial mapping of total Ni, V and Zn concentrations shows their distributions are correlated spatially with local geologic formations, and prior correlation analyses showed that statistically significant controls were exerted over trace element bioaccessibility by the 8 oxides, SOC and pH. PCA applied to the geochemistry parameters of the bioaccessibility sample set yielded three principal components accounting for 77% of cumulative variance in the data
set. Geostatistical analysis of oxide, trace element, SOC and pH distributions using 6862 sample locations also identified distinct spatial ranges of influence for these variables, concluded to arise from geologic forming processes, weathering processes, and localised soil chemistry factors. Kriging was used to conduct a spatial PCA of Ni, V and Zn distributions which identified two factors comprising the majority of distribution variance. This was spatially accounted for firstly by basalt rock types, with the second component associated with sandstone and limestone in the region. The results suggest trace element bioaccessibility and distribution is controlled by chemical and geologic processes which occur over variable spatial ranges of influence.

An exploration of seniors’ motivation to use mobile brain-exercise software

This article reports on the development of an iPhone-based brain-exercise tool for seniors involving a series of focus groups (FGs) and field trials (FTs). Four FGs with 34 participants were conducted aimed at understanding the underlying motivational and de-motivational factors influencing seniors’ engagement with mobile brain-exercise software. As part of the FGs, participants had approximately 40 minutes hands-on experience with commercially available brain-exercise software. A content analysis was conducted on the data resulting in a ranking of 19 motivational factors, of which the top three were challenge, usefulness and familiarity and 15 de-motivational factors, of which the top-three were usability issues, poor communication and games that were too fast. Findings were used to inform the design of three prototype brain-exercise games for the iPhone contained within one overall application, named Brain jog. Subsequently, two FTs were conducted using Brain jog to investigate the part that time exposure has to play in shaping the factors influencing engagement. New factors arose with respect to the initial FGs including the motivational factor feedback and the de-motivational factor boring. The results of this research provide valuable guidelines for the design and evaluation of mobile brain-exercise software for seniors.

Testing the efficacy of the glacial buzzsaw: insights from the Sredinny Mountains, Kamchatka

Peak altitudes, hypsometry, geology, and former equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) are analyzed across the Sredinny Mountains (Kamchatka). Overall, evidence is found to suggest that the glacial buzzsaw has operated to shape the topography of this mountain range, but the strength of this signature is not spatially uniform. In the southern sector of the mountains, we see evidence that an efficient glacial buzzsaw has acted to impose constraints upon topography, limiting peak altitudes, and concentrating land-surface area (hypsometric maxima) close to palaeo-ELAs. By contrast, in the northern sector of the mountains, a number of peaks rise high above the surrounding topography, and land-surface area is concentrated well below palaeo-ELAs. This deviation from a classic ‘buzzsaw signature’, in the northern sector of the mountains, is considered to reflect volcanic construction during the Quaternary, resulting in a series of high altitude peaks, combined with the action of dynamic glaciers, acting to skew basin topography toward low altitudes, well below palaeo-ELAs. These glaciers are considered to have been particularly dynamic because of their off-shore termination, their proximity to moisture-bearing air masses from the North Pacific, and because accumulation was supplemented by snow and ice avalanching from local high altitude peaks. Overall, the data suggest that the buzzsaw remains a valid mechanism to generally explain landscape evolution in mountain regions, but its signature is significantly weakened in mountain basins that experience both volcanic construction and climatic conditions favouring dynamic glaciation.

Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

A feasibility study testing four hypotheses with phase II outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (MRC FOCUS3): a model for randomised controlled trials in the era of personalised medicine?

Background: Molecular characteristics of cancer vary between individuals. In future, most trials will require assessment of biomarkers to allocate patients into enriched populations in which targeted therapies are more likely to be effective. The MRC FOCUS3 trial is a feasibility study to assess key elements in the planning of such studies.

Patients and methods: Patients with advanced colorectal cancer were registered from 24 centres between February 2010 and April 2011. With their consent, patients' tumour samples were analysed for KRAS/BRAF oncogene mutation status and topoisomerase 1 (topo-1) immunohistochemistry. Patients were then classified into one of four molecular strata; within each strata patients were randomised to one of two hypothesis-driven experimental therapies or a common control arm (FOLFIRI chemotherapy). A 4-stage suite of patient information sheets (PISs) was developed to avoid patient overload.

Results: A total of 332 patients were registered, 244 randomised. Among randomised patients, biomarker results were provided within 10 working days (w.d.) in 71%, 15 w.d. in 91% and 20 w.d. in 99%. DNA mutation analysis was 100% concordant between two laboratories. Over 90% of participants reported excellent understanding of all aspects of the trial. In this randomised phase II setting, omission of irinotecan in the low topo-1 group was associated with increased response rate and addition of cetuximab in the KRAS, BRAF wild-type cohort was associated with longer progression-free survival.

Conclusions: Patient samples can be collected and analysed within workable time frames and with reproducible mutation results. Complex multi-arm designs are acceptable to patients with good PIS. Randomisation within each cohort provides outcome data that can inform clinical practice.

Validation and application of a reporter gene assay for the determination of estrogenic endocrine disruptor activity in milk

Endocrine disruptors (EDs) are compounds known to interfere with the endocrine system by disturbing the action or pathways of natural hormones which may lead to infertility or cancer.Our diet is considered to be one of the main exposure routes to EDs. Since milk and dairy products are major components of our diet they should be monitored for ED contamination. Most assays developed to date utilise targeted, chromatography based methods which lack information on the biological activity and mixture effects of the monitored compounds.A biological reporter gene assay (RGA) was developed to assess the total estrogen hormonal load in milk. It has been validated according to EU decision 2002/657/EC. Analytes were extracted by liquid-liquid extraction with acetonitrile followed by clean up on a HLB column which yielded good recovery and small matrix effects. The method has been shown to be estrogen specific, repeatable and reproducible, with covariance values below 20%. In conclusion, this method enables the detection of low levels of estrogen hormonal activity in milk with a detection capability of 36pgg EEQ and has been successfully applied in testing a range of milk samples. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Ecological impacts of invasive alien species along temperature gradients: testing the role of environmental matching

Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause substantive ecological impacts, and the role of temperature in mediating these impacts may become increasingly significant in a changing climate. Habitat conditions and physiological optima offer predictive information for IAS impacts in novel environments. Here, using meta-analysis and laboratory experiments, we tested the hypothesis that the impacts of IAS in the field are inversely correlated with the difference in their ambient and optimal temperatures. A meta-analysis of 29 studies of consumptive impacts of IAS in inland waters revealed that the impacts of fishes and crustaceans are higher at temperatures that more closely match their thermal growth optima. In particular, the maximum impact potential was constrained by increased differences between ambient and optimal temperatures, as indicated by the steeper slope of a quantile regression on the upper 25th percentile of impact data compared to that of a weighted linear regression on all data with measured variances. We complemented this study with an experimental analysis of the functional response - the relationship between predation rate and prey supply - of two invasive predators (freshwater mysid shrimp, Hemimysis anomala and Mysis diluviana) across relevant temperature gradients; both of these species have previously been found to exert strong community-level impacts that are corroborated by their functional responses to different prey items. The functional response experiments showed that maximum feeding rates of H. anomala and M. diluviana have distinct peaks near their respective thermal optima. Although variation in impacts may be caused by numerous abiotic or biotic habitat characteristics, both our analyses point to temperature as a key mediator of IAS impact levels in inland waters and suggest that IAS management should prioritize habitats in the invaded range that more closely match the thermal optima of targeted invaders.

Testing Tidal Turbines - Part 1: Steady Towing Tests vs Tidal Moored Tests

Tidal turbines have been tested extensively at many scales in steady state flow. Testing medium- or full-scale devices in turbulent flow has been less thoroughly examined. The differences between turbine performances in these two different states are needed for testing method verification and numerical model validation. The work in this paper documents the performance of a 1/10 scale turbine in steady state pushing tests and tidal moored tests. The overall performance of the device appears to decrease with turbulent flow, though there is increased data scatter and therefore, reduced uncertainty. At maximum power performance, as velocity increases the mechanical power and electrical power reduction from steady to unsteady flow increases. The drive train conversion efficiency also decreases. This infers that the performance for this turbine design is affected by the presence of turbulent flow.

An optimized stereo vision implementation for embedded systems: application to RGB and Infra-Red images

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability and the effectiveness of a computationally demanding stereo matching algorithm in different lowcost and low-complexity embedded devices, by focusing on the analysis of timing and image quality performances. Various optimizations have been implemented to allow its deployment on specific hardware architectures while decreasing memory and processing time requirements: (1) reduction of color channel information and resolution for input images, (2) low-level software optimizations such as parallel computation, replacement of function calls or loop unrolling, (3) reduction of redundant data structures and internal data representation. The feasibility of a stereovision system on a low cost platform is evaluated by using standard datasets and images taken from Infra-Red (IR) cameras. Analysis of the resulting disparity map accuracy with respect to a full-size dataset is performed as well as the testing of suboptimal solutions

Developments in performance-based testing of concrete

Implementation of both design for durability and performance-based standards and specifications are limited by the lack of rapid, simple, science-based test methods for characterizing the transport properties and deterioration resistance of concrete. To this end, this paper presents the background rationale and current developments in the application of electrical property measurements - conductivity in this instance - as a testing methodology to evaluate the relative performance of a range of concrete mixes. The technique can not only be used on standard specimens (e.g. cubes), but also lends itself to in-situ monitoring thereby allowing measurements to be obtained on the as-placed concrete. It is the latter which forms the focus of the current work. Conductivity measurements are presented for concretes with and without supplementary cementitious materials (SCM's) from demoulding up to 400-days. It is shown that electrical conductivity measurements display a continual decrease over the entire test period and attributed to the pore structure refinement due to hydration and pozzolanic reaction in those concretes containing blast furnace slag or fly ash. The term Formation Factor is introduced to rank concrete performance in terms of is resistance to chloride penetration.