Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

How Structural Model Variability Influences Transonic Aeroelastic Stability

This paper considers the ways in which structural model parameter variability can influence aeroelastic stability. Previous work on formulating the stability calculation (with the Euler equations providing the aerodynamic predictions) is exploited to use Monte Carlo, interval, and perturbation calculations to allow this question to be investigated. Three routes are identified. The first involves variable normal-mode frequencies only. The second involves normal-mode frequencies and shapes. Finally, the third, in addition to normal-mode frequencies and shapes, also includes their influence on the static equilibrium. Previous work has suggested only considering the first route, which allows significant gains in computational efficiency if reduced-order models can be built for the aerodynamics. However, results in the current paper show that neglecting the mode-shape variation can give misleading results for the flutter-onset prediction, complicating the development of reduced aerodynamic models for variability analysis.

Human figure segmentation using independent component analysis

In this paper, we present a Statistical Shape Model for Human Figure Segmentation in gait sequences. Point Distribution Models (PDM) generally use Principal Component analysis (PCA) to describe the main directions of variation in the training set. However, PCA assumes a number of restrictions on the data that do not always hold. In this work, we explore the potential of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as an alternative shape decomposition to the PDM-based Human Figure Segmentation. The shape model obtained enables accurate estimation of human figures despite segmentation errors in the input silhouettes and has really good convergence qualities.

The Influence of Structural Modeshape Variability on Limit Cycle Oscillation Behaviour

Modal analysis is a popular approach used in structural dynamic and aeroelastic problems due to its efficiency. The response of a structure is compo
sed of the sum of orthogonal eigenvectors or modeshapes and corresponding modal frequencies. This paper investigates the importance of modeshapes on the aeroelastic response of the Goland wing subject to structural uncertainties. The wing undergoes limit cycle oscillations (LCO) as a result of the inclusion of polynomial stiffness nonlinearities. The LCO computations are performed using a Harmonic Balance approach for speed, the modal properties of the system are extracted from MSC NASTRAN. Variability in both the wing’s structure and the store centre of gravity location is investigated in two cases:- supercritical and subcritical type LCOs. Results show that the LCO behaviour is only sensitive to change in modeshapes when the nature of the modes are changing significantly.

Prediction of Transonic LCOs using an Aeroelastic Harmonic Balance Method

This work proposes a novel approach to compute transonic Lim
it Cycle Oscillations using high fidelity analysis. CFD based Harmonic Balance methods have proven to be efficient tools to predict periodic phenomena. This paper’s contribution is to present a new methodology to determine the unknown frequency of oscillations, enabling HB methods to accurately capture Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCOs); this is achieved by defining a frequency updating procedure based on a coupled CFD/CSD Harmonic Balance formulation to find the LCO condition. A pitch/plunge aerofoil and delta wing aerodynamic and respective linear structural models are used to validate the new method against conventional time-domain simulations. Results show consistent agreement between the proposed and time-marching methods for both LCO amplitude and frequency, while producing at least one order of magnitude reduction in computational time.

Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries

Objective: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies.

Methods: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed.

Results: In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m2 for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol.

Conclusions: CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.

Transonic Nonlinear Aeroelastic Simulations Using An Harmonic Balance Method

This paper presents an approach to compute transonic Limit Cycle O
scillations using a coupled Harmonic Balance formulation based on the Euler equations for fluid dynamics and finite element models. The paper will investigate the role of aerodynamic (shocks) and structural nonlinearities in driving the limit cycle behaviour. Part icular attention will be given to nonlinear interactions for subcritical LCOs. The Aero elastic Harmonic Balance formulation, allows for solutions of the coupled structural dynamics and CFD system at a reduced cost.

Aerofoil Optimisation Using CST Parameterisation in SU2

This paper describes an implementation of the popular method of Class-Shape Transformation for aerofoil design within SU2 software framework. To exploit the adjoint based methods for aerodynamic optimisation within the SU2, a formulation to obtain geometric sensitivities from the new parameterisation is introduced, enabling the calculation of gradients with respect to new design variables. To assess the accuracy and efficiency of the alternative approach, two transonic optimisation problems are investigated: an inviscid problem with multiple constraints and a viscous problems without any constraints. Results show the new parameterisation obtaining reliable optimums, with similar levels of
performance of the software native parameterisations.