61 resultados para Markov Model with Monte-Carlo microsimulations


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By molecular dynamics (MD) simulations we study the crystallization process in a model system whose particles interact by a spherical pair potential with a narrow and deep attractive well adjacent to a hard repulsive core. The phase diagram of the model displays a solid-fluid equilibrium, with a metastable fluid-fluid separation. Our computations are restricted to fairly small systems (from 2592 to 10368 particles) and cover long simulation times, with constant energy trajectories extending up to 76x10(6) MD steps. By progressively reducing the system temperature below the solid-fluid line, we first observe the metastable fluid-fluid separation, occurring readily and almost reversibly upon crossing the corresponding line in the phase diagram. The nucleation of the crystal phase takes place when the system is in the two-fluid metastable region. Analysis of the temperature dependence of the nucleation time allows us to estimate directly the nucleation free energy barrier. The results are compared with the predictions of classical nucleation theory. The critical nucleus is identified, and its structure is found to be predominantly fcc. Following nucleation, the solid phase grows steadily across the system, incorporating a large number of localized and extended defects. We discuss the relaxation processes taking place both during and after the crystallization stage. The relevance of our simulation for the kinetics of protein crystallization under normal experimental conditions is discussed. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

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A World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional red list is an objective assessment of regional extinction risk and is not the same as a list of conservation priority species. Recent research reveals the widespread, but incorrect, assumption that IUCN Red List categories represent a hierarchical list of priorities for conservation action. We developed a simple eight-step priority-setting process and applied it to the conservation of bees in Ireland. Our model is based on the national red list but also considers the global significance of the national population; the conservation status at global, continental, and regional levels; key biological, economic, and societal factors; and is compatible with existing conservation agreements and legislation. Throughout Ireland, almost one-third of the bee fauna is threatened (30 of 100 species), but our methodology resulted in a reduced list of only 17 priority species. We did not use the priority species list to broadly categorize species to the conservation action required; instead, we indicated the individual action required for all threatened, near-threatened, and data-deficient species on the national red list based on the IUCN's conservation-actions template file. Priority species lists will strongly influence prioritization of conservation actions at national levels, but action should not be exclusive to listed species. In addition, all species on this list will not necessarily require immediate action. Our method is transparent, reproducible, and readily applicable to other taxa and regions.

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Eight thousand images of the solar corona were captured during the June 2001 total solar eclipse. New software for the alignment of the images and an automated technique for detecting intensity oscillations using multi-scale wavelet analysis were developed. Large areas of the images covered by the Moon and the upper corona were scanned for oscillations and the statistical properties of the atmospheric effects were determined. The a Trous wavelet transform was used for noise reduction and Monte Carlo analysis as a significance test of the detections. The effectiveness of those techniques is discussed in detail.

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We address the question of the observed pinning of 1/2