Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance

During recent years, news headlines have been rife with criticisms of the risk management practices of public and private sector entities. These criticisms have often been accompanied by calls for greater transparency in the way government entities manage risks and communicate dangers to the public. Similarly, in the private sector, the internationalisation of economic activity has heightened concerns over the potential adverse implications of mismanagement and financial scandals, and has led to calls for greater regulation and supervision. While the responses of public sector agencies and private sector actors to these challenges have differed, they share a common acknowledgement that effective governance relies on the pro-active identification, assessment, and management of risks as well as appropriate regulatory frameworks.

This edited book covers a number of divergent topics illustrating the emergence of several novel themes in the area of economic and social risks. As a communality, these novel themes relate to the complexity in which human activity in this late stage of capitalist development is embedded. This risk-generating complexity, in turn, can be observed at several levels, including workplace hazards, governance problems within the private sector or the intersection between public and private, and in relation to the economic risks faced by larger entities such as national governments.

Understanding Risk: Recent Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance

Following on from the format of the previous Book Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance, this collection of recent contributions (including work by the editor) this book is divided in three sections .  The first section examines issues relating to corporate governance in the private sector, with emphasis being placed on issues of 'Board Decision Making,' Earnings Management and Audit Committee Effectiveness'  and ' Corporate Governance Failures.'  These contributions are complemented by the second sections which looks at governance and risk issues affecting the public sector, with a focus being places on 'Public Private Partnerships' and regulation of activities in the Life Sciences.'  Section three focuses on societal risk management in relation to health, safety and the environment.  In this context, contributions are presented in relation to major debates surrounding 'Rising Trends in Cancer Cases,' dilemmas surrounding 'Medical Self Help,' 'Mental Health Policy' and the use of 'Information Technology in Health Care.'

UK Public Private Partnerships and the Credit Crunch: A Case of Risk Contagion?

During the past twenty years, the UK has relied heavily on Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and especially the Private Finance Initiative in the procurement of infrastructure and services. Discussing the causes of the credit crunch and its effects on PPP, this paper notes that the provision of new public sector infrastructure and related services has been adversely affected by the impact of the credit crunch on Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs). These problems have arisen primarily from the unwillingness of commercial banks to replace collapsed PFI bond financing unless new PFI contracts reduce financial risks; which, in turn, is likely to increase the cost of these projects to the public sector. Additional financial strains have arisen for the UK government from the need to bail out collapsed PFI projects. Overall we find evidence that the UK commitment to PFI has not only increased immediate fiscal pressures on the UK when these have become least palatable, but has also created fiscal vulnerabilities at local and national levels which are likely to hamper the country’s ability to launch counter-cyclical responses to the ongoing crisis.

Further evidence consistent with Yqh as an indicator of risk of gonadal blastoma in Y-bearing mosaic Turner syndrome

An 8-year-old girl with some features of Turner syndrome and karyotype 45X/46XY had developed a bilateral gonadoblastoma in her rudimentary ovaries. Her normal Y chromosome showed the characteristic distal fluorescence, as seen in her father's. Another mosaic, this time 45X/46XidicY, and also with some Turner features had rudimentary ovaries, but no gonadoblastoma had developed at age 14. The nature of her idicY, which showed no fluorescent distal Yq and had one of the centromeres inactivated, was confirmed by in situ hybridisation with a Yp-specific probe. Using primers from a human Yp-specific sequence, we amplified DNA extracted from paraffin-embedded ovarian tissue from both cases, and from a normal testicle and a normal ovary as controls. The finding of the expected Y-derived PCR product in the rudimentary gonads from these mosaic patients indicates the presence of their Y chromosome in both. We discuss the validity of the findings, and the possible role of sequences in or near the fluorescent part of Yq in the origin of gonadoblastoma in Y-bearing mosaic Turner syndrome.

Comparing Social Work Students' Perceptions of Risk Using Online Discussion Fora: Lessons Learned from a European Pilot Project

Comparisons of international child welfare systems have identified two basic orientations to practice; a ‘child protection’ orientation and a ‘child welfare’ orientation, which are founded upon fundamentally different values and assumptions regarding the family, the origins of child care problems, and the proper role of the state in relation to the family. This paper describes a project which sought to compare how undergraduate social work students from three European Universities perceive risk in referrals about the welfare of children and to explore the impact of different cultural, ideological and educational contexts on the way in which risk is constructed by students. Students from Northern Ireland, Germany and Poland examined three vignettes via ten online discussion fora each of which provided a narrative summary of their discussion. The paper presents some findings from the analysis of the qualitative data emerging from the student discussions and draws out the lessons learned in terms of how the project was designed and implemented using online discussion fora.

Contracts for the Sale of Land: Understanding the Impecuniosity Defence

Where either the seller or buyer of landed property fails to complete a contract to sell land the non-breaching party has a right to seek specific performance of the contract. This remedy would compel the party in default to perform the contract on pain of being held in contempt of court if the court's order is not obeyed. The defaulting party would not be able to satisfy its obligations under the law by paying a sum of money as damages for breach of contract. This paper considers the impecuniosity defence to specific performance as recognised by courts in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. Where the buyer demonstrates that he or she simply cannot raise the funds to buy the property specific performance will not be decreed and the court will make an award of damages for breach of contract measured by the difference between the contract price and the market price of the property at the time of default. The paper considers the nature and parameters of this defence and how it differs (if at all) from the alternative defence of extreme hardship. The paper addresses the question of whether it might be better to move to a position where sellers of land in all cases no longer enjoy a presumption of specific performance but have to demonstrate that the alternative remedy of damages is clearly inadequate. If this should be so the paper goes on to consider whether abolition of the presumption in favour of specific performance for sellers should lead to abolition of the presumption of specific performance for buyers, as is the position in Canada following the Supreme Court's decision in Semelhago v Paramadevan [1996] 2 SCR 415.

Importance of risk factor management in diabetic patients and reduction in Stage B heart failure

BACKGROUND: A number of studies have demonstrated the presence of a diabetic cardiomyopathy, increasing the risk of heart failure development in this population. Improvements in present-day risk factor control may have modified the risk of diabetes-associated cardiomyopathy.

AIM: We sought to determine the contemporary impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the prevalence of cardiomyopathy in at-risk patients with and without adjustment for risk factor control.

DESIGN: A cross-sectional study in a population at risk for heart failure.

METHODS: Those with diabetes were compared to those with other cardiovascular risk factors, unmatched, matched for age and gender and then matched for age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol.

RESULTS: In total, 1399 patients enrolled in the St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) cohort were included. About 543 participants had an established history of DM. In the whole sample, Stage B heart failure (asymptomatic cardiomyopathy) was not found more frequently among the diabetic cohort compared to those without diabetes [113 (20.8%) vs. 154 (18.0%), P = 0.22], even when matched for age and gender. When controlling for these risk factors and risk factor control Stage B was found to be more prevalent in those with diabetes [88 (22.2%)] compared to those without diabetes [65 (16.4%), P = 0.048].

CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients with established risk factors for Stage B heart failure superior risk factor management among the diabetic population appears to dilute the independent diabetic insult to left ventricular structure and function, underlining the importance and benefit of effective risk factor control in this population on cardiovascular outcomes.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

The early-stage risk capital market in Scotland since 2000: issues of scale, characteristics and market efficiency

In this paper we provide a detailed profile and analysis of the regional risk capital market in Scotland, using an innovative methodology and specially developed databases which cover risk capital investment in young companies in the periods 2000–04 and 2005–07. This identifies the investment activity of all actors in the market and provides estimates of the total flow of risk capital investment into early-stage Scottish companies over the period. The paper concludes by drawing out the implications for policy makers (providing a more robust evidence base for the development, implementation and monitoring of policy) and for academic researchers (on the methodologies for estimating market scale and efficiency).

Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

An Analysis of the Effect of Electric Vehicle Charging on the Operation of the Single Electricity Market

To meet European Union renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets the Irish government set a target in 2008 that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet be powered by electricity by 2020. Similar electric vehicle targets have been introduced in other countries. However, reducing energy consumption and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions in transport is a considerable challenge due to heavy reliance on fossil fuels. In fact, transport in the Republic of Ireland in 2009 accounted for 29% of non-emissions trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions, 32% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, 21% of total greenhouse gas emissions and approximately 50% of energy-related non-emission trading scheme greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper the effect of electric vehicle charging on the operation of the single wholesale electricity market for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is analysed. The energy consumed, greenhouse gas emissions generated and changes to the wholesale price of electricity under peak and off-peak charging scenarios are quantified and discussed. Results from the study show that off-peak charging is more beneficial than peak charging.

Higher effort-reward imbalance and lower job control predict exit from the labour market at the age of 61 years or younger: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Background: We examined whether higher effort-reward imbalance (ERI) and lower job control are associated with exit from the labour market. 

Methods: There were 1263 participants aged 50-74 years from the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing with data on working status and work-related psychosocial factors at baseline (wave 2; 2004-2005), and working status at follow-up (wave 5; 2010-2011). Psychosocial factors at work were assessed using a short validated version of ERI and job control. An allostatic load index was formed using 13 biological parameters. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Exit from the labour market was defined as not working in the labour market when 61 years old or younger in 2010-2011. 

Results: Higher ERI OR=1.62 (95% CI 1.01 to 2.61, p=0.048) predicted exit from the labour market independent of age, sex, education, occupational class, allostatic load and depression. Job control OR=0.60 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.85, p=0.004) was associated with exit from the labour market independent of age, sex, education, occupation and depression. The association of higher effort OR=1.32 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.73, p=0.045) with exit from the labour market was independent of age, sex and depression but attenuated to non-significance when additionally controlling for socioeconomic measures. Reward was not related to exit from the labour market. 

Conclusions: Stressful work conditions can be a risk for exiting the labour market before the age of 61 years. Neither socioeconomic position nor allostatic load and depressive symptoms seem to explain this association.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.