Anytime Marginal MAP Inference

This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.

Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas?

Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites.

Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan 'panhandle').

Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites.

Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions.

Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas.

Deriving ecological quality standards for lakes using hypolimnetic oxygen depletion

The ecological quality of lakes and other surface water bodies in the European Union is determined by the quality of the structure and functioning of the aquatic ecosystem. The depletion rate of oxygen in the hypolimnion is an important process in thermally stratified lakes and the distribution of consumption between water and sediment an important structural characteristic. It is shown that the variation of volumetric oxygen consumption rate with trophic state can be used to select lake water total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations that correspond to changes in the functioning of the lake. Lake morphometry has little effect on this aspect of lake function and the relative amount of oxygen consumption in the water and sediment changes only a little with trophic state, most of the consumption being in the water. Suggestions for the reference condition, good and moderate ecological quality are made using the changes in this aspect of lake function and they are presented as lake water total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentration.