Energy: lessons from devolution

Geraint Ellis and Richard Cowell explain the findings of the ‘Delivering renewable energy under devolution’ project, including some reasons for Scotland’s lead.

The UK has seen massive increases in renewable energy since 1998, with installed capacity growing from 2,600 MW to 12,300 MW in 2011. This has coincided with devolution and it is within Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales that the greatest increases have been seen.

As devolved administrations now host half of the UK’s renewable energy capacity, their policies are critical to achieving the broader UK targets. This also provides a fascinating insight into what sort of approach works best, and why. This has been the focus of a two-year study, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, involving universities from across the UK, which indicates that Scotland is leading the way on renewable energy.

All devolved governments have offered significant support to renewable energy but have different degrees of powers in relation to energy. Scotland’s success seems to be based on the centrality of energy issues to current political aspirations, particularly the SNP, but also has cross-party support. The research suggests that the consensus on the importance of renewable energy amongst élite interests in Scotland helps to explain why Scottish governments have been empowered and enabled to make robust use of the powers available.

As it has achieved successful growth in the sector, this too helps cultivate credibility among key business interests and gives increased leverage to its position in policy discussions with the UK Government. Scotland has been more consistent over time in presenting the expansion of renewable energy as a national economic agenda, rather than just an environmental or rural development agenda. The availability of larger, windy, but relatively less contested sites for onshore wind in Scotland has meant that more projects went through central consenting procedures rather than local planning authorities. Its enhanced support for wave and tidal power technologies is also notable. These political conditions have been harder to find in the rest of the UK, making progress a little more uncertain.

Northern Ireland has used its powers (which are more extensive than Scotland’s) to facilitate small-scale renewables and bio-fuel processes, with its liberalised planning regime offering an initial boost to expanding capacity.

This has contrasted with the position in Wales, which has least control over energy but the Welsh Government has adopted a more innovative approach to strategic spatial zoning; this appears to have pulled in a larger volume of onshore wind development interest than could be expected in a comparable region of England. A downside of the Welsh approach appears to be the fact that the concentration of these wind projects in these zones has triggered public opposition and political conflict.

It therefore appears that the powers available to the devolved governments do not seem to determine which country has been able to make greatest headway, with broader political commitments being more significant. Despite this, the research does not conclude that the actions and activities undertaken by the devolved governments are necessarily the most important factors in shaping the development of renewable energy in the UK. This is because devolution is still a relatively new dimension of energy governance in the UK and decisions affecting key drivers for renewable energy investment are still made mainly in Westminster, with the Treasury exercising close budgetary control. In all areas of the UK, grid capacity expansion remains slow to achieve. The major growth in offshore wind to date has been driven mainly by Westminster and cross-UK bodies with the most significant capacity growth being in English territorial waters.

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker's immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner's travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner's salary.

Towards optimal clinical and epidemiological registration of haematological malignancies: Guidelines for recording progressions, transformations and multiple diagnoses

Haematological malignancies (HM) represent over 6% of the total cancer incidence in Europe and affect all ages, ranging between 45% of all cancers in children and 7% in the elderly. Thirty per cent of childhood cancer deaths are due to HM, 8% in the elderly. Their registration presents specific challenges, mainly because HM may transform or progress in the course of the disease into other types of HM. In the context of cancer registration decisions have to be made about classifying subsequent notifications on the same patient as the same tumour (progression), a transformation or a new tumour registration. Allocation of incidence date and method of diagnosis must also be standardised. We developed European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) recommendations providing specific advice for cancer registries to use haematology and molecular laboratories as data sources, conserve the original date of incidence in case of change of diagnosis, make provision for recording both the original as well as transformed tumour and to apply precise rules for recording and counting multiple diagnoses. A reference table advising on codes which reflect a potential transformation or a new tumour is included. This work will help to improve comparability of data produced by population-based cancer registries, which are indispensable for aetiological research, health care planning and clinical research, an increasing important area with the application of targeted therapies.

Cultural and Genetic Influences on the “Biological Standard of Living”

This study suggests an improvement of a popular measure of living standards, namely the biological standard of living. One influence on it is a population's consumption pattern. Since there are different dietary patterns all over the world, researchers estimate the influences of national diets on final average male height. These habits are predominantly related to income, but also to genetics, cultural history, and decisions regarding whether to trade or consume high-quality foodstuffs. Systematic differences are found when analyzing protein-consumption habits among 51 countries between the 1960s and the 1980s. The author calculates metric correction values which can facilitate international comparisons of male average height. While the proposed correction values make a little difference on average, they can be valuable in a comparison of countries with markedly different dietary patterns.

A RAG System for the Management Forensic and Archaeological Searches of Burial Grounds

Burial grounds are commonly surveyed and searched by both police/humanitarian search teams and archaeologists.
One aspect of an efficient search is to establish areas free of recent internments to allow the concentration of assets in suspect
terrain. While 100% surety in locating remains can never be achieved, the deployment of a red, amber green (RAG) system for
assessment has proven invaluable to our surveys. The RAG system is based on a desktop study (including burial ground
records), visual inspection (mounding, collapses) and use of geophysics (in this case, ground penetrating radar or GPR) for a
multi-proxy assessment that provides search authorities an assessment of the state of inhumations and a level of legal backup
for decisions they make on excavation or not (‘exit strategy’). The system is flexible and will be built upon as research
continues.

In and out of home care decisions: The influence of confirmation bias in developing decision supportive reasoning

The aims of this study were to identify the themes Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to remove children from, or return them to, the care of their parents. To further elicit underlying hypotheses that are discernible in interpretation of evidence. A case study, comprising a two-part vignette with a questionnaire, recorded demographic information, child welfare attitudes and risk assessments, using scales derived from standardised instruments, was completed by 202 Social Workers in Northern Ireland. There were two manipulated variables, mother’s attitude to removal and child’s attitude to reunification2 years later. In this paper we use data derived from respondents’ qualitative comments explaining their reasoning for in and out of home care decisions. Some 60.9% of respondent’s chose the parental care option at part one, with 94% choosing to have the child remain in foster care at part two. The manipulated variables were found to have no significant statistical effect. However, three underlying hypotheses were found to underpin decisions; (a)child rescue, (b) kinship defence and (c) a hedged position on calculation of risk subject to further assessment. Reasoning strategies utilised by social workers to support their decision making suggest that they tend to selectively interpret information either positively or negatively to support pre-existing underlying hypotheses. This finding is in keeping with the literature on ‘confirmation bias.’ The research further draws attention to the need to incorporate open questions in quantitative studies, to help guard against surface reading of data, which often does not ‘speak for itself.’

Barriers to Goals of Care Discussions With Seriously Ill Hospitalized Patients and Their Families: A Multicenter Survey of Clinicians

Importance: Seriously ill hospitalized patients have identified communication and decision making about goals of care as high priorities for quality improvement in end-of-life care. Interventions to improve care are more likely to succeed if tailored to existing barriers.

Objective: To determine, from the perspective of hospital-based clinicians, (1) barriers impeding communication and decision making about goals of care with seriously ill hospitalized patients and their families and (2) their own willingness and the acceptability for other clinicians to engage in this process.

Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter survey of medical teaching units of nurses, internal medicine residents, and staff physicians from participating units at 13 university-based hospitals from 5 Canadian provinces.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Importance of 21 barriers to goals of care discussions rated on a 7-point scale (1 = extremely unimportant; 7 = extremely important).

Results: Between September 2012 and March 2013, questionnaires were returned by 1256 of 1617 eligible clinicians, for an overall response rate of 77.7% (512 of 646 nurses [79.3%], 484 of 634 residents [76.3%], 260 of 337 staff physicians [77.2%]). The following family member-related and patient-related factors were consistently identified by all 3 clinician groups as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions: family members' or patients' difficulty accepting a poor prognosis (mean [SD] score, 5.8 [1.2] and 5.6 [1.3], respectively), family members' or patients' difficulty understanding the limitations and complications of life-sustaining treatments (5.8 [1.2] for both groups), disagreement among family members about goals of care (5.8 [1.2]), and patients' incapacity to make goals of care decisions (5.6 [1.2]). Clinicians perceived their own skills and system factors as less important barriers. Participants viewed it as acceptable for all clinician groups to engage in goals of care discussions-including a role for advance practice nurses, nurses, and social workers to initiate goals of care discussions and be a decision coach.

Conclusions and Relevance: Hospital-based clinicians perceive family member-related and patient-related factors as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions. All health care professionals were viewed as playing important roles in addressing goals of care. These findings can inform the design of future interventions to improve communication and decision making about goals of care.

STARTEC: Novel processing technologies in the development of a decision support tool to ensure safe and nutritious Ready-To-Eat foods

Ready-to-eat (RTE) foods can be readily consumed with minimum or without any further preparation; their processing is complex—involving thorough decontamination processes— due to their composition of mixed ingredients. Compared with conventional preservation technologies, novel processing technologies can enhance the safety and quality of these complex products by reducing the risk of pathogens and/ or by preserving related health-promoting compounds. These novel technologies can be divided into two categories: thermal and non-thermal. As a non-thermal treatment, High Pressure Processing is a very promising novel methodology that can be used even in the already packaged RTE foods. A new “volumetric” microwave heating technology is an interesting cooking and decontamination method directly applied to foods. Cold Plasma technology is a potential substitute of chlorine washing in fresh vegetable decontamination. Ohmic heating is a heating method applicable to viscous products but also to meat products. Producers of RTE foods have to deal with challenging decisions starting from the ingredients suppliers to the distribution chain. They have to take into account not only the cost factor but also the benefits and food products’ safety and quality. Novel processing technologies can be a valuable yet large investment for several SME food manufacturers, but they need support data to be able to make adequate decisions. Within the FP7 Cooperation funded by the European Commission, the STARTEC project aims to develop an IT decision supporting tool to help food business operators in their risk assessment and future decision making when producing RTE foods with or without novel preservation technologies.

Context, institution, or accountability? Exploring the factors that shape the performance of national human rights and equality bodies

The past two decades witnessed a global proliferation of national human rights and equality bodies. Yet the research literature remains critical of their performance, positing a series of explanations for the gap between the expectations of civil society and the contribution they make. Through a comparative analysis of six statutory human rights and equality bodies in the United Kingdom and Ireland, this article explores the range of factors that shape their performance.

A-level Mathematics Options – Views of Secondary-level Teachers

The A-level Mathematics qualification is based on a compulsory set of pure maths modules and a selection of applied maths modules with the pure maths representing two thirds of the assessment. The applied maths section includes mechanics, statistics and (sometimes) decision maths. A combination of mechanics and statistics tends to be the most popular choice by far. The current study aims to understand how maths teachers in secondary education make decisions regarding the curriculum options and offers useful insight to those currently designing the new A-level specifications.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with A-level maths teachers representing 27 grammar schools across Northern Ireland. Teachers were generally in agreement regarding the importance of pure maths and the balance between pure and applied within the A-level maths curriculum. A wide variety of opinions existed concerning the applied options. While many believe that the basic mechanics-statistics (M1-S1) combination is most accessible, it was also noted that the M1-M2 combination fits neatly alongside A-level physics. Lack of resources, timetabling constraints and competition with other subjects in the curriculum hinder uptake of A-level Further Maths.

Teachers are very conscious of the need to obtain high grades to benefit both their pupils and the school’s reputation. The move to a linear assessment system in England while Northern Ireland retains the modular system is likely to cause some schools to review their choice of exam board although there is disagreement as to whether a modular or linear system is more advantageous for pupils. The upcoming change in the specification offers an opportunity to refresh the assessment also and reduce the number of leading questions. However, teachers note that there are serious issues with GCSE maths and these have implications for A-level.

A systematic review investigating the effectiveness of Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) for the management of low back and/or pelvic pain (LBPP) in pregnancy

Aim: To evaluate and summarize the current evidence on the effectiveness of complementary and alternative medicine for the management of low back pain and/or pelvic pain in pregnancy.

Background: International research demonstrates that 25-30% of women use complementary and alternative medicine to manage low back and pelvic pain in pregnancy without robust evidence demonstrating its effectiveness.

Design: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials to determine the effectiveness of complementary and alternative medicine for low back and/or pelvic pain in pregnancy.

Data Sources: Cochrane library (1898-2013), PubMed (1996-2013), MEDLINE (1946-2013), AMED (1985-2013), Embase (1974-2013), Cinahl (1937-2013), Index to Thesis (1716-2013) and Ethos (1914-2013).

Review Methods: Selected studies were written in English, randomized controlled trials, a group 1 or 2 therapy and reported pain reduction as an outcome measure. Study quality was reviewed using Risk of Bias and evidence strength the Cochrane Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation Tool.

Results: Eight studies were selected for full review. Two acupuncture studies with low risk of bias showed both clinically important changes and statistically significant results. There was evidence of effectiveness for osteopathy and chiropractic. However, osteopathy and chiropractic studies scored high for risk of bias. Strength of the evidence across studies was very low.

Conclusion: There is limited evidence supporting the use of general CAM for managing pregnancy-related low back and/or pelvic pain. However, the restricted availability of high-quality studies, combined with the very low evidence strength, makes it impossible to make evidence-based recommendations for practice.

THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.

A realistic evaluation of track and trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and treatment of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol.

Aim The aim of the study is to evaluate factors that enable or constrain the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems or acute care training in practice. Background To date there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of acute care initiatives (early warning systems, acute care training, outreach) in reducing the number of adverse events (cardiac arrest, death, unanticipated Intensive Care admission) through increased recognition and management of deteriorating ward based patients in hospital [1-3]. The reasons posited are that previous research primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes following the implementation of an intervention or programme without considering the social factors (the organisation, the people, external influences) which may have affected the process of implementation and hence measured end-points. Further research which considers the social processes is required in order to understand why a programme works, or does not work, in particular circumstances [4]. Method The design is a multiple case study approach of four general wards in two acute hospitals where Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Acute Life-threatening Events Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course have been implemented. Various methods are being used to collect data about individual capacities, interpersonal relationships and institutional balance and infrastructures in order to understand the intended and unintended process outcomes of implementing EWS and ALERT in practice. This information will be gathered from individual and focus group interviews with key participants (ALERT facilitators, nursing and medical ALERT instructors, ward managers, doctors, ward nurses and health care assistants from each hospital); non-participant observation of ward organisation and structure; audit of patients' EWS charts and audit of the medical notes of patients who deteriorated during the study period to ascertain whether ALERT principles were followed. Discussion & progress to date This study commenced in January 2007. Ethical approval has been granted and data collection is ongoing with interviews being conducted with key stakeholders. The findings from this study will provide evidence for policy-makers to make informed decisions regarding the direction for strategic and service planning of acute care services to improve the level of care provided to acutely ill patients in hospital. References 1. Esmonde L, McDonnell A, Ball C, Waskett C, Morgan R, Rashidain A et al. Investigating the effectiveness of Critical Care Outreach Services: A systematic review. Intensive Care Medicine 2006; 32: 1713-1721 2. McGaughey J, Alderdice F, Fowler R, Kapila A, Mayhew A, Moutray M. Outreach and Early Warning Systems for the prevention of Intensive Care admission and death of critically ill patients on general hospital wards. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2007, Issue 3. www.thecochranelibrary.com 3. Winters BD, Pham JC, Hunt EA, Guallar E, Berenholtz S, Pronovost PJ (2007) Rapid Response Systems: A systematic review. Critical Care Medicine 2007; 35 (5): 1238-43 4. Pawson R and Tilley N. Realistic Evaluation. London; Sage: 1997

Molecular markers in the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer

Although significant progress has been made in colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment within the last decade with the approval of multiple new agents, the prognosis for patients with metastatic CRC remains poor with 5-year survival rates of approximately 8%. Resistance to chemotherapy remains a major obstacle in effective CRC treatment and many patients do not receive any clinical benefit from chemotherapy. In addition, other patients will experience adverse reactions to treatment resulting in dose modifications or treatment withdrawal, which can severely reduce treatment efficacy. Currently, significant research efforts are attempting to identify reliable and validated biomarkers with which will guide clinicians to make more informed treatment decisions. Specifically, the use of molecular profiling has the potential to assist the clinician in administering the correct drug, dose, or intervention for the patient before the onset of therapy thereby selecting a treatment strategy likely to have the greatest clinical outcome while minimizing adverse events. However, until recently, personalized medicine is a paradigm that has existed more in conceptual terms than in reality with very few validated biomarkers used routinely in metastatic CRC treatment. Rapid advances in genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic technologies continues to improve our understanding of tumor biology, but the search for reliable biomarkers has turned out to be more challenging than previously anticipated with significant disparity in published literature and limited translation into routine clinical practice. Recent progress with the identification and validation of biomarkers to the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies including KRAS and possibly BRAF provide optimism that the goal of individualized treatment is within reach. This review will highlight and discuss current progress in the search for biomarkers, the challenges this emerging field presents, and the future role of biomarkers in advancing CRC treatment.

Contracts for the Sale of Land: Understanding the Impecuniosity Defence

Where either the seller or buyer of landed property fails to complete a contract to sell land the non-breaching party has a right to seek specific performance of the contract. This remedy would compel the party in default to perform the contract on pain of being held in contempt of court if the court's order is not obeyed. The defaulting party would not be able to satisfy its obligations under the law by paying a sum of money as damages for breach of contract. This paper considers the impecuniosity defence to specific performance as recognised by courts in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. Where the buyer demonstrates that he or she simply cannot raise the funds to buy the property specific performance will not be decreed and the court will make an award of damages for breach of contract measured by the difference between the contract price and the market price of the property at the time of default. The paper considers the nature and parameters of this defence and how it differs (if at all) from the alternative defence of extreme hardship. The paper addresses the question of whether it might be better to move to a position where sellers of land in all cases no longer enjoy a presumption of specific performance but have to demonstrate that the alternative remedy of damages is clearly inadequate. If this should be so the paper goes on to consider whether abolition of the presumption in favour of specific performance for sellers should lead to abolition of the presumption of specific performance for buyers, as is the position in Canada following the Supreme Court's decision in Semelhago v Paramadevan [1996] 2 SCR 415.