A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power

Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing for dementia : an assessment of the impact of the physical environment on wayfinding success for residents in long term care settings

It is acknowledged that one of the consequences of the ageing process is cognitive decline, which leads to an increase in the incidence of illnesses such as dementia. This has become ever more relevant due to the projected increase in the ageing demographic. Dementia affects visuo-spatial perception, causing difficulty with wayfinding, even during the early stages of the disease. The literature widely recognises the physical environment’s role in alleviating symptoms of dementia and improving quality of life for residents. It also identifies the lack of available housing options for older people with dementia and consequently the current stock is ill-equipped to provide adequate support.
Recent statistics indicate that 80% of those residing in nursing or residential care homes have some form of dementia or severe memory problems. The shift towards institutional care settings, the need for specialist support and care, places a greater impetus on the need for a person-centred approach to tackle issues related to wayfinding and dementia.
This thesis therefore aims to improve design for dementia in nursing and residential care settings in the context of Northern Ireland. This will be undertaken in order to provide a better understanding of how people with dementia experience the physical environment and to highlight features of the design that assist with wayfinding. Currently there are limited guidelines on design for dementia, meaning that many of these are theoretical, anecdotal and not definitive. Hence a greater verification to address the less recognised design issues is required. This is intended to ultimately improve quality of life, wellbeing, independence and uphold the dignity of people with dementia living in nursing or residential care homes.
The research design uses a mixed methods approach. A thorough preparation and consideration of ethical issues informed the methodology. The various facets were also trialled and piloted to identify any ethical, technological, methodological, data collection and analysis issues. The protocol was then amended to improve or resolve any of the aforementioned issues. Initially a questionnaire based on leading design recommendations was conducted with home managers. Semi-structured interviews were developed from this and conducted with staff and resident’s next of kin. An evidence-based approach was used to design a study which used ethnographic methods, including a wayfinding task. This followed a repeated measures design which would be used to actively engage residents with dementia in the research. Complementary to the wayfinding task, conversational and semi-structured interviews were used to promote dialogue and direct responses with the person with dementia. In addition to this, Space Syntax methodologies were used to examine the physical properties of the architectural layout. This was then cross-examined with interview responses and data from the wayfinding tasks.
A number of plan typologies were identified and were determined as synonymous with decision point types which needed to be made during the walks. The empirical work enabled the synthesis of environmental features which support wayfinding.
Results indicate that particular environmental features are associated with improved performance on the wayfinding tasks. By enhancing design for dementia, through identifying the attributes, challenges with wayfinding may be overcome and the benefits of the physical environment can be seen to promote wellbeing.
The implications of this work mean that the environmental features which have been highlighted from the project can be used to inform guidelines, thus adding to existing knowledge. Future work would involve the dissemination of this information and the potential for it to be made into design standards or regulations which champion design for dementia. These would increase awareness for designers and stakeholders undertaking new projects, extensions or refurbishments.
A person-centred, evidence-based design was emphasised throughout the project which guaranteed an in-depth study. There were limitations due to the available resources, time and funding. Future research would involve testing the identified environmental features within a specific environment to enable measured observation of improvements.

Any versus long-term prescribing of high risk medications in older people using 2012 Beers Criteria: results from three cross-sectional samples of primary care records for 2003/4, 2007/8 and 2011/12

Background: High risk medications are commonly prescribed to older US patients. Currently, less is known about high risk medication prescribing in other Western Countries, including the UK. We measured trends and correlates of high risk medication prescribing in a subset of the older UK population (community/institutionalized) to inform harm minimization efforts. Methods: Three cross-sectional samples from primary care electronic clinical records (UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) in fiscal years 2003/04, 2007/08 and 2011/12 were taken. This yielded a sample of 13,900 people aged 65 years or over from 504 UK general practices. High risk medications were defined by 2012 Beers Criteria adapted for the UK. Using descriptive statistical methods and regression modelling, prevalence of ‘any’ (drugs prescribed at least once per year) and ‘long-term’ (drugs prescribed all quarters of year) high risk medication prescribing and correlates were determined. Results: While polypharmacy rates have risen sharply, high risk medication prevalence has remained stable across a decade. A third of older (65+) people are exposed to high risk medications, but only half of the total prevalence was long-term (any = 38.4 % [95 % CI: 36.3, 40.5]; long-term = 17.4 % [15.9, 19.9] in 2011/12). Long-term but not any high risk medication exposure was associated with older ages (85 years or over). Women and people with higher polypharmacy burden were at greater risk of exposure; lower socio-economic status was not associated. Ten drugs/drug classes accounted for most of high risk medication prescribing in 2011/12. Conclusions: High risk medication prescribing has not increased over time against a background of increasing polypharmacy in the UK. Half of patients receiving high risk medications do so for less than a year. Reducing or optimising the use of a limited number of drugs could dramatically reduce high risk medications in older people. Further research is needed to investigate why the oldest old and women are at greater risk. Interventions to reduce high risk medications may need to target shorter and long-term use separately.

Methotrexate polyglutamates as a potential marker of adherence to long-term therapy in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and juvenile dermatomyositis: an observational, cross-sectional study

Introduction: Methotrexate (MTX) is a cornerstone of treatment in a wide variety of inflammatory conditions, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). However, owing to its narrow therapeutic index and the considerable interpatient variability in clinical response, monitoring of adherence to MTX is important. The present study demonstrates the feasibility of using methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPGs) as a biomarker to measure adherence to MTX treatment in children with JIA and JDM.
Methods: Data were collected prospectively from a cohort of 48 children (median age 11.5 years) who received oral or subcutaneous (SC) MTX therapy for JIA or JDM. Dried blood spot samples were obtained from children by finger pick at the clinic or via self- or parent-led sampling at home, and they were analysed to determine the variability in MTXPG concentrations and assess adherence to MTX therapy.
Results: Wide fluctuations in MTXPG total concentrations (>2.0-fold variations) were found in 17 patients receiving stable weekly doses of MTX, which is indicative of nonadherence or partial adherence to MTX therapy. Age (P = 0.026) and route of administration (P = 0.005) were the most important predictors of nonadherence to MTX treatment. In addition, the study showed that MTX dose and route of administration were significantly associated with variations in the distribution of MTXPG subtypes. Higher doses and SC administration of MTX produced higher levels of total MTXPGs and selective accumulation of longer-chain MTXPGs (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively).
Conclusions: Nonadherence to MTX therapy is a significant problem in children with JIA and JDM. The present study suggests that patients with inadequate adherence and/or intolerance to oral MTX may benefit from SC administration of the drug. The clinical utility of MTXPG levels to monitor and optimise adherence to MTX in children has been demonstrated.Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registry identifier: ISRCTN93945409 . Registered 2 December 2011.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone.

METHODS: Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544).

FINDINGS: 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc.

INTERPRETATION: Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Behavioural and physiological responses of shelter dogs to long-term confinement

In Italy, National Law (281/1991) prohibits euthanasia of shelter dogs if they are not dangerous or suffering seriously. Adoption rates in rescue shelters are often lower than entrance rates, leading inevitably to overcrowded facilities where animals are likely to spend the rest of their lives in kennels. In this situation, housing conditions (i.e. space provided, environmental, and social stimulation) may have an impact on canine welfare. In this research project, the effects of two different forms of housing (group- and pair housing) on long-term shelter dogs were compared using behavioural and physiological parameters. Observational data and saliva samples were collected from dogs exposed to both experimental settings; behaviour and cortisol concentration levels were used as welfare indicators. Pair housing offered fewer social and environmental stimuli and behavioural analysis showed a significant decrease in locomotor, exploratory, and social behaviour. Cortisol levels show that this parameter varied independently of housing conditions. Although this study found no evidence suggesting that one form of confinement reduced animal welfare more than the other (e.g. in terms of abnormal behaviour, or higher cortisol concentrations), the type of confinement did affect the expression of a variety of behaviours and these variations should not be ignored with respect to housing decisions for long-term shelter dogs.

The effectiveness of a nurse practitioner-led pain management team in long-term care: A mixed methods study

BACKGROUND: Considering the high rates of pain as well as its under-management in long-term care (LTC) settings, research is needed to explore innovations in pain management that take into account limited resource realities. It has been suggested that nurse practitioners, working within an inter-professional model, could potentially address the under-management of pain in LTC.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the effectiveness of implementing a nurse practitioner-led, inter-professional pain management team in LTC in improving (a) pain-related resident outcomes; (b) clinical practice behaviours (e.g., documentation of pain assessments, use of non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions); and, (c) quality of pain medication prescribing practices.

METHODS: A mixed method design was used to evaluate a nurse practitioner-led pain management team, including both a quantitative and qualitative component. Using a controlled before-after study, six LTC homes were allocated to one of three groups: 1) a nurse practitioner-led pain team (full intervention); 2) nurse practitioner but no pain management team (partial intervention); or, 3) no nurse practitioner, no pain management team (control group). In total, 345 LTC residents were recruited to participate in the study; 139 residents for the full intervention group, 108 for the partial intervention group, and 98 residents for the control group. Data was collected in Canada from 2010 to 2012.

RESULTS: Implementing a nurse practitioner-led pain team in LTC significantly reduced residents' pain and improved functional status compared to usual care without access to a nurse practitioner. Positive changes in clinical practice behaviours (e.g., assessing pain, developing care plans related to pain management, documenting effectiveness of pain interventions) occurred over the intervention period for both the nurse practitioner-led pain team and nurse practitioner-only groups; these changes did not occur to the same extent, if at all, in the control group. Qualitative analysis highlighted the perceived benefits of LTC staff about having access to a nurse practitioner and benefits of the pain team, along with barriers to managing pain in LTC.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study showed that implementing a nurse practitioner-led pain team can significantly improve resident pain and functional status as well as clinical practice behaviours of LTC staff. LTC homes should employ a nurse practitioner, ideally located onsite as opposed to an offsite consultative role, to enhance inter-professional collaboration and facilitate more consistent and timely access to pain management.

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.

HDL-C and HDL-C/ApoA-I predict long-term progression of glycemia in established type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and small HDL particle size may directly promote hyperglycemia. We evaluated associations of HDL-C, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), and HDL-C/apoA-I with insulin secretion, insulin resistance, HbA1c, and long-term glycemic deterioration, reflected by initiation of pharmacologic glucose control.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study followed 9,795 type 2 diabetic subjects. We calculated baseline associations of fasting HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with HbA1c and, in those not taking exogenous insulin (n = 8,271), with estimated β-cell function (homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function [HOMA-B]) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Among the 2,608 subjects prescribed lifestyle only, Cox proportional hazards analysis evaluated associations of HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with subsequent initiation of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) or insulin.

RESULTS: Adjusted for age and sex, baseline HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were inversely associated with HOMA-IR (r = -0.233, -0.134, and -0.230; all P < 0.001; n = 8,271) but not related to HbA1c (all P > 0.05; n = 9,795). ApoA-I was also inversely associated with HOMA-B (r = -0.063; P = 0.002; n = 8,271) adjusted for age, sex, and HOMA-IR. Prospectively, lower baseline HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I levels predicted greater uptake (per 1-SD lower: hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [CI 1.07-1.19], P < 0.001; and HR 1.16 [CI 1.10-1.23], P < 0.001, respectively) and earlier uptake (median 12.9 and 24.0 months, respectively, for quartile 1 vs. quartile 4; both P < 0.01) of OHAs and insulin, with no difference in HbA1c thresholds for initiation (P = 0.87 and P = 0.81). Controlling for HOMA-IR and triglycerides lessened both associations, but HDL-C/apoA-I remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS: HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were associated with concurrent insulin resistance but not HbA1c. However, lower HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I predicted greater and earlier need for pharmacologic glucose control.