Sustainability and the Multifunctional Landscape: An Assessment of the Cairngorms National Park Authority’s Approach to Planning and Management in Upland Scotland.

Upland Scotland contains some of Britain’s most prized areas of natural heritage value. However, although such areas may appear both ‘wild’ and ‘remote’, these are typically working landscapes which symbolise the interdependence of nature and society. The complexity of this relationship means that management responses will need to address a multitude of potentially conflicting priorities whilst at the same time ensuring that sufficient social and institutional capital exists to allow for the promotion of landscape integrity. The introduction of national parks to Scotland in the form of the National Parks (Scotland) Act 2000 allows for a high-level of protection for designated areas in upland Scotland. Yet, whilst the recent Act outlines the statutory purpose and direction national parks should take, it allows a significant degree of flexibility in theway in which the Actmay be implemented. This level of discretion allows for significant local distinctiveness within the model but also raises questions about the potential effectiveness of chosen responses. In order to assess the potential implications of a model rooted in self-determination,we provide a case study review of the institutional basis of the Cairngorms National Park along with an assessment of the strategic character of the first National Park Plan. It is argued that whilst the Cairngorms National Park Authority has developed a significant level of stakeholder engagement, the authority may struggle to bridge the policy-implementation gap. Although a number of shortcomings are identified, particular concerns relate to the potential mismatch between strategic ambition and local level capacity.

Do benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts?

This paper investigates if benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts reported for financial time-series returns. The returns distributions of the Africa All-Share, Large, Medium and Small Company Indices were found to be leptokurtotic, had fat-tails, over time experienced volatility clustering and exhibited long memory in volatility. Both the All-Share and Large Company Indices were found to exhibit leverage effects. In contrast, positive shocks had a greater impact on future volatility for the Small Company Index which implies a reverse leverage effect. This finding could reflect a bull/bubble market for small capitalisation stocks in Africa.

Demographics and landscape features determine intrariver population structure in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.): the case of the River Moy in Ireland

Contemporary genetic structure of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the River Moy in Ireland is shown here to be strongly related to landscape features and population demographics, with populations being defined largely by their degree of physical isolation and their size. Samples of juvenile salmon were collected from the 17 major spawning areas on the river Moy and from one spawning area in each of five smaller nearby rivers. No temporal allele frequency differences were observed within locations for 12 microsatellite loci, whereas nearly all spatial samples differed significantly, suggesting that each was a separate population. Bayesian clustering and landscape genetic analyses suggest that these populations can be combined hierarchically into five genetically informative larger groupings. Lakes were found to be the single most important determinant of the observed population structure. Spawning area size was also an important factor. The salmon population of the closest nearby river resembled genetically the largest Moy population grouping. In addition, we showed that anthropogenic influences on spawning habitats, in this case arterial drainage, can affect relationships between populations. Our results show that Atlantic salmon biodiversity can be largely defined by geography, and thus, knowledge of landscape features (for example, as characterized within Geographical Information Systems) has the potential to predict population structure in other rivers without an intensive genetic survey, or at least to help direct sampling. This approach of combining genetics and geography, for sampling and in subsequent statistical analyses, has wider application to the investigation of population structure in other freshwater/anadromous fish species and possibly in marine fish and other organisms.

Distribution of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) and landscape favourability for the species in Northern Ireland

The common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) is Ireland’s only native reptile, forming a key part of the island’s biodiversity. However, there is a general paucity of distributional and abundance data for the species. In this study, we collated incidental records for common lizard sightings to define the distribution of the species in Northern Ireland. Maximum entropy modelling was employed to describe species-habitat associations. The resulting predicted landscape favourability was used to evaluate the current status of the species based on the distribution of its maximum potential range in relation to the degree of fragmentation of remaining suitable habitat. In common with previous studies in the Republic of Ireland, sightings were highly clustered indicating under-recording, observer bias, and fragmentation of suitable habitat. A total of 98 records were collated from 1905 to 2009. The species was recorded in 63 (ca. 34%) of 186 × 10 km Northern Irish grid squares. Lizard occurrence was strongly and positively associated with landscapes dominated by heathland, bog and coastal habitats. The single best approximating model correctly classified the presence of lizards in 84.2% of cases. Upland heath, lowland raised bog and sand dune systems are all subject to Habitat Action Plans in Northern Ireland and are threatened by conversion to agriculture, afforestation, invasive species encroachment and infrastructural development. Consequently, remaining common lizard populations are likely to be small, isolated and highly fragmented. Establishment of an ecological network to preserve connectivity of remaining heath and bog will not only benefit remaining common lizard populations but biodiversity in general.

Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.