Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

School and Community Screening Shows Malawi, Africa, to Have a High Prevalence of Latent Rheumatic Heart Disease

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the largest cardiac cause of morbidity and mortality in the world's youth. Early detection of RHD through echocardiographic screening in asymptomatic children may identify an early stage of disease, when secondary prophylaxis has the greatest chance of stopping disease progression. Latent RHD signifies echocardiographic evidence of RHD with no known history of acute rheumatic fever and no clinical symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the prevalence of latent RHD among children ages 5-16 in Lilongwe, Malawi.

DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study in which children ages 5 through 16 were screened for RHD using echocardiography.

SETTING: Screening was conducted in 3 schools and surrounding communities in the Lilongwe district of Malawi between February and April 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES: Children were diagnosed as having no, borderline, or definite RHD as defined by World Heart Federation criteria. The primary reader completed offline reads of all studies. A second reader reviewed all of the studies diagnosed as RHD, plus a selection of normal studies. A third reader served as tiebreaker for discordant diagnoses. The distribution of results was compared between gender, location, and age categories using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS: The prevalence of latent RHD was 3.4% (95% CI = 2.45, 4.31), with 0.7% definite RHD and 2.7% borderline RHD. There was no significant differences in prevalence between gender (P = .44), site (P = .6), urban vs. peri-urban (P = .75), or age (P = .79). Of those with definite RHD, all were diagnosed because of pathologic mitral regurgitation (MR) and 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve. Of those with borderline RHD, most met the criteria by having pathological MR (92.3%).

CONCLUSION: Malawi has a high rate of latent RHD, which is consistent with other results from sub-Saharan Africa. This study strongly supports the need for a RHD prevention and control program in Malawi.

The religious content of ethnic identities

The religious dimensions of ethnic identities have been under-theorized. In contemporary industrial societies there is a tendency to characterize religiously demarcated groups as 'really' ethnic.This article suggests that the religious content of ethnic boundaries may be more important than might initially be assumed. A religious identification may have specific religious content and assumptions that may cause it to operate in different ways from other identities. Even if identities do not seem primarily religious per se, they may have latent religious dimensions that can become reactivated. Whilst identity conflicts and other social struggles may stimulate the return of the religious, once reactivated, the religious dimensions of identity may take on a logic of their own.Therefore, the article argues that in many contexts there is a two-way relationship between religion and ethnicity. Each can stimulate the other, rather than religion simply playing a supporting role to the ethnic centrepiece.

A comparative assessment of potential components of partial disease resistance to Fusarium head blight detected in a detached leaf assay of wheat, barley and oats.

The relative resistance of 15 winter barley, three winter wheat and three winter oat cultivars on the UK recommended list 2003 and two spring wheat cultivars on the Irish 2003 recommended list were evaluated using Microdochium nivale in detached leaf assays to further understand components of partial disease resistance (PDR) and Fusarium head blight (FHB) resistance across cereal species. Barley cultivars showed incubation periods comparable to, and latent periods longer than the most FHB resistant Irish and UK wheat cultivars evaluated. In addition, lesions on barley differed from those on wheat as they were not visibly chlorotic when placed over a light box until sporulation occurred, in contrast to wheat cultivars where chlorosis of the infected area occurred when lesions first developed. The pattern of delayed chlorosis of the infected leaf tissue and longer latent periods indicate that resistances are expressed in barley after the incubation period is observed, and that these temporarily arrest the development of mycelium and sporulation. Incubation periods were longer for oats compared to barley or wheat cultivars. However, oat cultivars differed from both wheat and barley in that mycelial growth was observed before obvious tissue damage was detected under macroscopic examination, indicating tolerance of infection rather than inhibition of pathogen development, and morphology of sporodochia differed, appearing less well developed and being much less abundant. Longer latent periods have previously been related to greater FHB resistance in wheat. The present results suggest the longer latent periods of barley and oat cultivars, than wheat, are likely to play a role in overall FHB resistance if under the same genetic control as PDR components expressed in the head. However the limited range of incubation and latent periods observed within barley and oat cultivars evaluated was in contrast with wheat where incubation and latent periods were shorter and more variable among genotypes. The significance of the various combinations of PDR components detected in the detached leaf assay as components of FHB resistance in each crop requires further investigation, particularly with regard to the apparent tolerance of infection in oats and necrosis in barley, after the incubation period is observed, associated with retardation of mycelial growth and sporulation.

Components of resistance to Fusarium head blight in wheat detected in a seed germination assay with Microdochium majus and the relationship to FHB disease development and mycotoxin accumulation from Fusarium graminearum infection.

Components of partial disease resistance (PDR) to fusarium head blight (FHB), detected in a seed-germination assay, were compared with whole-plant FHB resistance of 30 USA soft red winter wheat entries in the 2002 Uniform Southern FHB Nursery. Highly significant (P <0·001) differences between cultivars in the in vitro seed-germination assay inoculated with Microdochium majus were correlated to FHB disease incidence (r = -0·41; P <0·05), severity (r = -0·47; P <0·01), FHB index (r = -0·46; P <0·01), damaged kernels (r = -0·52; P <0·01), grain deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration (r = -0·40; P <0·05) and incidence/severity/kernel-damage index (ISK) (r = -0·45; P <0·01) caused by Fusarium graminearum. Multiple linear regression analysis explained a greater percentage of variation in FHB resistance using the seed-germination assay and the previously reported detached-leaf assay PDR components as explanatory factors. Shorter incubation periods, longer latent periods, shorter lesion lengths in the detached-leaf assay and higher germination rates in the seed-germination assay were related to greater FHB resistance across all disease variables, collectively explaining 62% of variation for incidence, 49% for severity, 56% for F. graminearum-damaged kernels (FDK), 39% for DON and 59% for ISK index. Incubation period was most strongly related to disease incidence and the early stages of infection, while resistance detected in the seed germination assay and latent period were more strongly related to FHB disease severity. Resistance detected using the seed-germination assay was notable as it related to greater decline in the level of FDK and a smaller reduction in DON than would have been expected from the reduction in FHB disease assessed by visual symptoms.

Client's assessment of architects' performance in building delivery process: Evidence from Nigeria

The overall intent of this research is to provide architects with information that can be used to improve their performance so as to optimally satisfy the client's requirements and achieve high-quality overall project performance in Nigerian construction industry. Architect performance criteria were identified based on literature within the domain of architect responsibilities. The assessment of architects’ performance was carried out through a questionnaire survey of clients of recently completed building projects in Nigeria. Analysis of data includes comparison of criteria using importance–performance index analysis. Factor analysis was carried out on criteria where architects are falling below average, to group and explore the latent structure of the criteria in the data. The results showed that the architect needs to focus on management skills and ability, buildability, design quality, project communication, project integration and client focus. These results would encourage architects to perform better within their full responsibilities in the building delivery process and deliver high-quality projects within Nigerian construction industry.

Rasch Analysis of the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV)

PURPOSE. To examine internal consistency, refine the response scale, and obtain a linear scoring system for the visual function instrument, the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV). METHODS. Data were available from 186 participants with a clinical diagnosis of AMD who completed the 22-item DLTV (DLTV-22) according to four-point ordinal response scale. An independent group of 386 participants with AMD were administered a reduced version of the DLTV with 11 items (DLTV-11), according to a five-point response scale. Rasch analysis was performed on both datasets and used to generate item statistics for measure order, response odds ratios per item and per person, and infit and outfit mean square statistics. The Rasch output from the DLTV-22 was examined to identify redundant items and for factorial validity and person item measure separation reliabilities. RESULTS. The average rating for the DLTV-22 changed monotonically with the magnitude of the latent person trait. The expected versus observed average measures were extremely close, with step calibrations evenly separated for the four-point ordinal scale. In the case of the DLTV-11, step calibrations were not as evenly separated, suggesting that the five-point scale should be reduced to either a four- or three-point scale. Five items in the DLTV-22 were removed, and all 17 remaining items had good infit and outfit mean squares. PCA with residuals from Rasch analysis identified two domains containing 7 and 10 items each. The domains had high person separation reliabilities (0.86 and 0.77 for domains 1 and 2, respectively) and item measure reliabilities (0.99 and 0.98 for domains 1 and 2, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. With the improved internal consistency, establishment of the accuracy and precision of the rating scale for the DLTV and the establishment of a valid domain structure we believe that it constitutes a useful instrument for assessing visual function in older adults with age-related macular degeneration.

TDM modelling and evaluation of different domain transforms for LSI

Latent semantic indexing (LSI) is a popular technique used in information retrieval (IR) applications. This paper presents a novel evaluation strategy based on the use of image processing tools. The authors evaluate the use of the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and Cohen Daubechies Feauveau 9/7 (CDF 9/7) wavelet transform as a pre-processing step for the singular value decomposition (SVD) step of the LSI system. In addition, the effect of different threshold types on the search results is examined. The results show that accuracy can be increased by applying both transforms as a pre-processing step, with better performance for the hard-threshold function. The choice of the best threshold value is a key factor in the transform process. This paper also describes the most effective structure for the database to facilitate efficient searching in the LSI system.

Habitat for Humanity: Calibrating Best Practice Against the MDGs

Poverty alleviation lies at the heart of contemporary international initiatives on development. The key to development is the creation of an environment in which people can develop their potential, leading productive, creative lives in accordance with their needs, interests and faith. This entails, on the one hand, protecting the vulnerable from things that threaten their survival, such as inadequate nutrition, disease, conflict, natural disasters and the impact of climate change, thereby enhancing the poor’s capabilities to develop resilience in difficult conditions. On the other hand, it also requires a means of empowering the poor to act on their own behalf, as individuals and communities, to secure access to resources and the basic necessities of life such as water, food, shelter, sanitation, health and education. ‘Development’, from this perspective, seeks to address the sources of human insecurity, working towards ‘freedom from want, freedom from fear’ in ways that empower the vulnerable as agents of development (not passive recipients of benefaction).

Recognition of the magnitude of the problems confronted by the poor and failure of past interventions to tackle basic issues of human security led the United Nations (UN) in September 2000 to set out a range of ambitious, but clearly defined, development goals to be achieved by 2015. These are known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The intention of the UN was to mobilise multilateral international organisations, non-governmental organisations and the wider international community to focus attention on fulfilling earlier promises to combat global poverty. This international framework for development prioritises: the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development. These goals have been mapped onto specific targets (18 in total) against which outcomes of associated development initiatives can be measured and the international community held to account. If the world achieves the MDGs, more than 500 million people will be lifted out of poverty. However, the challenges the goals represent are formidable. Interim reports on the initiative indicate a need to scale-up efforts and accelerate progress.
Only MDG 7, Target 11 explicitly identifies shelter as a priority, identifying the need to secure ‘by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’. This raises a question over how Habitat for Humanity’s commitment to tackling poverty housing fits within this broader international framework designed to allievate global poverty. From an analysis of HFH case studies, this report argues that the processes by which Habitat for Humanity tackles poverty housing directly engages with the agenda set by the MDGs. This should not be regarded as a beneficial by-product of the delivery of decent, affordable shelter, but rather understood in terms of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity has translated its mission and values into a participatory model that empowers individuals and communities to address the interdependencies between inadequate shelter and other sources of human insecurity. What housing can deliver is as important as what housing itself is.

Examples of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity projects engage with the MDG framework include the incorporation of sustainable livelihoods strategies, up-grading of basic infrastructure and promotion of models of good governance. This includes housing projects that have also offered training to young people in skills used in the construction industry, microfinanced loans for women to start up their own home-based businesses, and the provision of food gardens. These play an important role in lifting families out of poverty and ensuring the sustainability of HFH projects. Studies of the impact of improved shelter and security of livelihood upon family life and the welfare of children evidence higher rates of participation in education, more time dedicated to study and greater individual achievement. Habitat for Humanity projects also typically incorporate measures to up-grade the provision of basic sanitation facilities and supplies of safe, potable drinking water. These measures not only directly help reduce mortality rates (e.g. diarrheal diseases account for around 2 million deaths annually in children under 5), but also, when delivered through HFH project-related ‘community funds’, empower the poor to mobilise community resources, develop local leadership capacities and even secure de facto security of tenure from government authorities.

In the process of translating its mission and values into practical measures, HFH has developed a range of innovative practices that deliver much more than housing alone. The organisation’s participatory model enables both direct beneficiaries and the wider community to tackle the insecurities they face, unlocking latent skills and enterprise, building sustainable livelihood capabilities. HFH plays an important role as a catalyst for change, delivering through the vehicle of housing the means to address the primary causes of poverty itself. Its contribution to wider development priorities deserves better recognition. In calibrating the success of HFH projects in terms of units completed or renovated alone, the significance of the process by which HFH realises these outcomes is often not sufficiently acknowledged, both within the organisation and externally. As the case studies developed in the report illustrate, the methodologies Habitat for Humanity employs to address the issue of poverty housing within the developing world, place the organisation at the centre of a global strategic agenda to address the root causes of poverty through community empowerment and the transformation of structures of governance.

Given this, the global network of HFH affiliates constitutes a unique organisational framework to faciliate sharing resources, ideas and practical experience across a diverse range of cultural, political and institutional environments. This said, it is apparent that work needs to be done to better to faciliate the pooling of experience and lessons learnt from across its affiliates. Much is to be gained from learning from less successful projects, sharing innovative practices, identifying strategic partnerships with donors, other NGOs and CBOs, and engaging with the international development community on how housing fits within a broader agenda to alleviate poverty and promote good governance.

Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Hierarchical Video Summarization in Reference Subspace

In this paper, a hierarchical video structure summarization approach using Laplacian Eigenmap is proposed, where a small set of reference frames is selected from the video sequence to form a reference subspace to measure the dissimilarity between two arbitrary frames. In the proposed summarization scheme, the shot-level key frames are first detected from the continuity of inter-frame dissimilarity, and the sub-shot level and scene level representative frames are then summarized by using K-mean clustering. The experiment is carried on both test videos and movies, and the results show that in comparison with a similar approach using latent semantic analysis, the proposed approach using Laplacian Eigenmap can achieve a better recall rate in keyframe detection, and gives an efficient hierarchical summarization at sub shot, shot and scene levels subsequently.

Multimodal Biometric Human Recognition for Perceptual Human-Computer Interaction

In this paper, a novel video-based multimodal biometric verification scheme using the subspace-based low-level feature fusion of face and speech is developed for specific speaker recognition for perceptual human--computer interaction (HCI). In the proposed scheme, human face is tracked and face pose is estimated to weight the detected facelike regions in successive frames, where ill-posed faces and false-positive detections are assigned with lower credit to enhance the accuracy. In the audio modality, mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are extracted for voice-based biometric verification. In the fusion step, features from both modalities are projected into nonlinear Laplacian Eigenmap subspace for multimodal speaker recognition and combined at low level. The proposed approach is tested on the video database of ten human subjects, and the results show that the proposed scheme can attain better accuracy in comparison with the conventional multimodal fusion using latent semantic analysis as well as the single-modality verifications. The experiment on MATLAB shows the potential of the proposed scheme to attain the real-time performance for perceptual HCI applications.

Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

Association Study of SNAP25 and Schizophrenia in Irish Family and Case-Control Samples

SNAP25 occurs on chromosome 20p12.2, which has been linked to schizophrenia in some samples, and recently linked to latent classes of psychotic illness in our sample. SNAP25 is crucial to synaptic functioning, may be involved in axonal growth and dendritic sprouting, and its expression may be decreased in schizophrenia. We genotyped 18 haplotype-tagging SNPs in SNAP25 in a sample of 270 Irish high-density families. Single marker and haplotype analyses were performed in FBAT and PDT. We adjusted for multiple testing by computing q values. Association was followed up in an independent sample of 657 cases and 411 controls. We tested for allelic effects on the clinical phenotype by using the method of sequential addition and 5 factor-derived scores of the OPCRIT. Nine of 18 SNPs had Pvalues