Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecularly imprinted polymers for the extraction of imiquimod from biological samples using a template analogue strategy

Molecularly Imprinted Polymers (MIPs) against imiquimod, a highly potent immune response modifier used in the treatment of skin cancer, were synthesised using a template analogue strategy and were compared with imprints of the drug itself. An investigation of the complexation between the functional monomer and the template analogue revealed an association constant of 1,376 ± 122 M-1, significantly higher than previously reported values for similar systems. The binding characteristics of the synthesised imprinted polymers were evaluated and extremely strong binding for imiquimod was observed while imprinting factors as high as 17 were calculated. When applied as sorbents in solid-phase extraction of imiquimod from aqueous, urine and blood serum samples, clean extracts and recoveries up to 95% were achieved, and it is concluded that while imiquimod imprints exhibited higher capacity for the drug, template analogue imprints are more selective. The results obtained suggest potential applications of imiquimod imprints as sorbents in rapid extraction and monitoring of undesirable systemic release of the drug.

Iron plaque formation, arsenic uptake and speciation in different genotypes of mature rice plants (Oryza sativa L.)

A compartmented soil-glass bead culture system was used to investigate characteristics of iron plaque and arsenic accumulation and speciation in mature rice plants with different capacities of forming iron plaque on their roots. X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectra and extended X-ray absorption fine structure were utilized to identify the mineralogical characteristics of iron plaque and arsenic sequestration in plaque on the rice roots. Iron plaque was dominated by (oxyhydr)oxides, which were composed of ferrihydrite (81-100%), with a minor amount of goethite (19%) fitted in one of the samples. Sequential extraction and XANES data showed that arsenic in iron plaque was sequestered mainly with amorphous and crystalline iron (oxyhydr)oxides, and that arsenate was the predominant species. There was significant variation in iron plaque formation between genotypes, and the distribution of arsenic in different components of mature rice plants followed the following order:? iron plaque > root > straw > husk > grain for all genotypes. Arsenic accumulation in grain differed significantly among genotypes. Inorganic arsenic and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) were the main arsenic species in rice grain for six genotypes, and there were large genotypic differences in levels of DMA and inorganic arsenic in grain. A compartmented soil-glass bead culture system was used to investigate characteristics of iron plaque and arsenic accumulation and speciation in mature rice plants with different capacities of forming iron plaque on their roots. X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectra and extended X-ray absorption fine structure were utilized to identify the mineralogical characteristics of iron plaque and arsenic sequestration in plaque on the rice roots. Iron plaque was dominated by (oxyhydr)oxides, which were composed of ferrihydrite (81-100%), with a minor amount of goethite (19%) fitted in one of the samples. Sequential extraction and XANES data showed that arsenic in iron plaque was sequestered mainly with amorphous and crystalline iron (oxyhydr)oxides, and that arsenate was the predominant species. There was significant variation in iron plaque formation between genotypes, and the distribution of arsenic in different components of mature rice plants followed the following order:? iron plaque > root > straw > husk > grain for all genotypes. Arsenic accumulation in grain differed significantly among genotypes. Inorganic arsenic and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) were the main arsenic species in rice grain for six genotypes, and there were large genotypic differences in levels of DMA and inorganic arsenic in grain.

Development and validation of the first high performance-lateral flow immunoassay (HP-LFIA) for the rapid screening of domoic acid from shellfish extracts

A lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) has been developed and fully validated to detect the primary amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP) toxin, domoic acid (DA). The performance characteristics of two versions of the test were investigated using spiked and naturally contaminated shellfish (mussels, scallops, oysters, clams, and cockles). The tests provide a qualitative result, to indicate the absence or presence of DA in extracts of shellfish tissues, at concentrations that are relevant to regulatory limits. The new rapid assay (LFIA version 2) was designed to overcome the performance limitations identified in the first version of the assay. The improved test uses an electronic reader to remove the subjective nature of the generated results, and the positive cut-off for screening of DA in shellfish was increased from 10 ppm (version 1) to 17.5 ppm (version 2). A simple extraction and test procedure was employed, which required minimal equipment and materials; results were available 15 min after sample preparation. Stability of the aqueous extracts at room temperature (22 C) at four time points (up to 245 min after extraction) and across a range of DA concentrations was 100.3±1.3% and 98.8±2.4% for pre- and post-buffered extracts, respectively. The assay can be used both within laboratory settings and in remote locations. The accuracy of the new assay, to indicate negative results at or below 10 ppm DA, and positive results at or above 17.5 ppm, was 99.5% (n=216 tests). Validation data were obtained from a 2-day, randomised, blind study consisting of multiple LFIA lots (n=3), readers (n=3) and operators (n=3), carrying out multiple extractions of mussel tissue (n=3) at each concentration (0, 10, 17.5, and 20 ppm). No matrix effects were observed on the performance of the assay with different species (mussels, scallops, oysters, clams, and cockles). There was no impact on accuracy or interference from other phycotoxins, glutamic acid or glutamine with various strip incubations (8, 10, and 12 min). The accuracy of the assay, using naturally contaminated samples to indicate negative results at or below 12.5 ppm and positive results at or above 17.5 ppm, was 100%. Variability between three LFIA lots across a range of DA concentrations, expressed as coefficient of variation (% CV), was 1.1±0.4% (n=2 days) based on quantitative readings from the electronic reader. During an 8 week stability study, accuracy of the method with test strips stored at various temperatures (6, 22, 37 and 50 C) was 100%. Validation for both versions included comparisons with results obtained using reference LC-UV methods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Automatic extraction of Reduced order models from CFD simulations for building energy modeling

Thermal comfort is defined as “that condition of mind which expresses satisfaction with the thermal environment’ [1] [2]. Field studies have been completed in order to establish the governing conditions for thermal comfort [3]. These studies showed that the internal climate of a room was the strongest factor in establishing thermal comfort. Direct manipulation of the internal climate is necessary to retain an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In order for Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) strategies to be efficiently utilised it is necessary to have the ability to predict the effect that activating a heating/cooling source (radiators, windows and doors) will have on the room. The numerical modelling of the domain can be challenging due to necessity to capture temperature stratification and/or different heat sources (radiators, computers and human beings). Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) models are usually utilised for this function because they provide the level of details required. Although they provide the necessary level of accuracy these models tend to be highly computationally expensive especially when transient behaviour needs to be analysed. Consequently they cannot be integrated in BEMS. This paper presents and describes validation of a CFD-ROM method for real-time simulations of building thermal performance. The CFD-ROM method involves the automatic extraction and solution of reduced order models (ROMs) from validated CFD simulations. The test case used in this work is a room of the Environmental Research Institute (ERI) Building at the University College Cork (UCC). ROMs have shown that they are sufficiently accurate with a total error of less than 1% and successfully retain a satisfactory representation of the phenomena modelled. The number of zones in a ROM defines the size and complexity of that ROM. It has been observed that ROMs with a higher number of zones produce more accurate results. As each ROM has a time to solution of less than 20 seconds they can be integrated into the BEMS of a building which opens the potential to real time physics based building energy modelling.

Characterisation of UK and Irish Cold-Pressed Rapeseed Oils in Relation to Quality Indices and Constituents.

Cold-pressed rapeseed oil (CPRSO) is produced when seeds from an oilseed rape crop are mechanically crushed whilst at a low temperature. CPRSO’s popularity is rapidly expanding and is now produced in most Northern European countries including both N.Ireland and ROI. The CPRSO industry is still relatively new and therefore not as widely researched as other high quality oils. Fifteen CPRSO from The UK, Ireland and France were examined to determine characteristic differences between the oils. Two samples of extra-virgin olive oil and two samples of refined rapeseed oil were also included in the investigation to assess performance against market competitors. The antioxidant potential of the oils was assessed using the ABTS and DPPH radical scavenging assays. Both unexpectedly showed that refined rapeseed oil had the highest potential whilst there was significant difference between many of the CPRSO’s. The acid value (ACOS method Cd 3d-63) ranged widely from 0.47-3.41. To predict the stability during storage, an accelerated oxidation test was carried out where the oils were placed in an oven (60°C) and peroxide value was monitored. The results showed extra-virgin olive oil underwent the least oxidation during the trial. The refined rapeseed oil suffered the worst levels of oxidation whilst the CPRSO’s performed similarly but with some variation. Fatty acid composition was investigated with GC-MS and some of the major fatty acids were found to differ significantly between producers. Minor compound analysis was achieved with extraction and identification through HPLC. All results are critically discussed and compared to relevant published studies.

Untargeted Metabolomic Analysis of Human Plasma Indicates Differentially Affected Polyamine and L-Arginine Metabolism in Mild Cognitive Impairment Subjects Converting to Alzheimer’s Disease

This study combined high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS), advanced chemometrics and pathway enrichment analysis to analyse the blood metabolome of patients attending the memory clinic: cases of mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 16), cases of MCI who upon subsequent follow-up developed Alzheimer's disease (MCI_AD; n = 19), and healthy age-matched controls (Ctrl; n = 37). Plasma was extracted in acetonitrile and applied to an Acquity UPLC HILIC (1.7μm x 2.1 x 100 mm) column coupled to a Xevo G2 QTof mass spectrometer using a previously optimised method. Data comprising 6751 spectral features were used to build an OPLS-DA statistical model capable of accurately distinguishing Ctrl, MCI and MCI_AD. The model accurately distinguished (R2 = 99.1%; Q2 = 97%) those MCI patients who later went on to develop AD. S-plots were used to shortlist ions of interest which were responsible for explaining the maximum amount of variation between patient groups. Metabolite database searching and pathway enrichment analysis indicated disturbances in 22 biochemical pathways, and excitingly it discovered two interlinked areas of metabolism (polyamine metabolism and L-Arginine metabolism) were differentially disrupted in this well-defined clinical cohort. The optimised untargeted HRMS methods described herein not only demonstrate that it is possible to distinguish these pathologies in human blood but also that MCI patients 'at risk' from AD could be predicted up to 2 years earlier than conventional clinical diagnosis. Blood-based metabolite profiling of plasma from memory clinic patients is a novel and feasible approach in improving MCI and AD diagnosis and, refining clinical trials through better patient stratification.

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Automatic extraction of reduced-order models from CFD simulations for building energy modelling

Accurate modelling of the internal climate of buildings is essential if Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) are to efficiently maintain adequate thermal comfort. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are usually utilised to predict internal climate. Nevertheless CFD models, although providing the necessary level of accuracy, are highly computationally expensive, and cannot practically be integrated in BEMS. This paper presents and describes validation of a CFD-ROM method for real-time simulations of building thermal performance. The CFD-ROM method involves the automatic extraction and solution of reduced order models (ROMs) from validated CFD simulations. ROMs are shown to be adequately accurate with a total error below 5% and to retain satisfactory representation of the phenomena modelled. Each ROM has a time to solution under 20seconds, which opens the potential of their integration with BEMS, giving real-time physics-based building energy modelling. A parameter study was conducted to investigate the applicability of the extracted ROM to initial boundary conditions different from those from which it was extracted. The results show that the ROMs retained satisfactory total errors when the initial conditions in the room were varied by ±5°C. This allows the production of a finite number of ROMs with the ability to rapidly model many possible scenarios.

A realistic evaluation of Early Warning Systems and acute care training in Northern Ireland: findings and recommendations

Statement of purpose The purpose of this concurrent session is to present the main findings and recommendations from a five year study evaluating the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the Acute Life-threatening Events: Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course in Northern Ireland. The presentation will provide delegates with an understanding of those factors that enable and constrain successful implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice in order to provide an impetus for change. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory [1]. The stages included identifying the programme theories underpinning EWS and ALERT, generating hypotheses, gathering empirical evidence and refining the programme theories. This approach used a variety of mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records. A within and across case comparison facilitated the development of mid-range theories from the research evidence. Results The official RRS theories developed from the realist synthesis were critically evaluated and compared with the study findings to develop a mid-range theory to explain what works, for whom in what circumstances. The findings of what works suggests that clinical experience, established working relationships, flexible implementation of protocols, ongoing experiential learning, empowerment and pre-emptive management are key to the success of EWS and ALERT implementation. Each concept is presented as ‘context, mechanism and outcome configurations’ to provide an understanding of how the context impacts on individual reasoning or behaviour to produce certain outcomes. Conclusion These findings highlight the combination of factors that can improve the implementation and sustainability of EWS and ALERT and in light of this evidence several recommendations are made to provide policymakers with guidance and direction for future policy development. References: 1. Pawson R and Tilley N. (1997) Realistic Evaluation. Sage Publications; London Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

Technological aids for the rehabilitation of memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury (Review).

Background The use of technology in healthcare settings is on the increase and may represent a cost-effective means of delivering rehabilitation. Reductions in treatment time, and delivery in the home, are also thought to be benefits of this approach. Children and adolescents with brain injury often experience deficits in memory and executive functioning that can negatively affect their school work, social lives, and future occupations. Effective interventions that can be delivered at home, without the need for high-cost clinical involvement, could provide a means to address a current lack of provision. We have systematically reviewed studies examining the effects of technology-based interventions for the rehabilitation of deficits in memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Objectives To assess the effects of technology-based interventions compared to placebo intervention, no treatment, or other types of intervention, on the executive functioning and memory of children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Search methods We ran the search on the 30 September 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid MEDLINE(R) In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE(R) Daily and Ovid OLDMEDLINE(R), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE (OvidSP), ISI Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED, SSCI, CPCI-S, and CPSI-SSH), CINAHL Plus (EBSCO), two other databases, and clinical trials registers. We also searched the internet, screened reference lists, and contacted authors of included studies. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing the use of a technological aid for the rehabilitation of children and adolescents with memory or executive-functioning deficits with placebo, no treatment, or another intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently reviewed titles and abstracts identified by the search strategy. Following retrieval of full-text manuscripts, two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Main results Four studies (involving 206 participants) met the inclusion criteria for this review. Three studies, involving 194 participants, assessed the effects of online interventions to target executive functioning (that is monitoring and changing behaviour, problem solving, planning, etc.). These studies, which were all conducted by the same research team, compared online interventions against a 'placebo' (participants were given internet resources on brain injury). The interventions were delivered in the family home with additional support or training, or both, from a psychologist or doctoral student. The fourth study investigated the use of a computer program to target memory in addition to components of executive functioning (that is attention, organisation, and problem solving). No information on the study setting was provided, however a speech-language pathologist, teacher, or occupational therapist accompanied participants. Two studies assessed adolescents and young adults with mild to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), while the remaining two studies assessed children and adolescents with moderate to severe TBI. Risk of bias We assessed the risk of selection bias as low for three studies and unclear for one study. Allocation bias was high in two studies, unclear in one study, and low in one study. Only one study (n = 120) was able to conceal allocation from participants, therefore overall selection bias was assessed as high. One study took steps to conceal assessors from allocation (low risk of detection bias), while the other three did not do so (high risk of detection bias). Primary outcome 1: Executive functioning: Technology-based intervention versus placebo Results from meta-analysis of three studies (n = 194) comparing online interventions with a placebo for children and adolescents with TBI, favoured the intervention immediately post-treatment (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.66 to -0.09; P = 0.62; I2 = 0%). (As there is no 'gold standard' measure in the field, we have not translated the SMD back to any particular scale.) This result is thought to represent only a small to medium effect size (using Cohen’s rule of thumb, where 0.2 is a small effect, 0.5 a medium one, and 0.8 or above is a large effect); this is unlikely to have a clinically important effect on the participant. The fourth study (n = 12) reported differences between the intervention and control groups on problem solving (an important component of executive functioning). No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. The quality of evidence for this outcome according to GRADE was very low. This means future research is highly likely to change the estimate of effect. Primary outcome 2: Memory One small study (n = 12) reported a statistically significant difference in improvement in sentence recall between the intervention and control group following an eight-week remediation programme. No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. Secondary outcomes Two studies (n = 158) reported on anxiety/depression as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and were included in a meta-analysis. We found no evidence of an effect with the intervention (mean difference -5.59, 95% CI -11.46 to 0.28; I2 = 53%). The GRADE quality of evidence for this outcome was very low, meaning future research is likely to change the estimate of effect. A single study sought to record adverse events and reported none. Two studies reported on use of the intervention (range 0 to 13 and 1 to 24 sessions). One study reported on social functioning/social competence and found no effect. The included studies reported no data for other secondary outcomes (that is quality of life and academic achievement). Authors' conclusions This review provides low-quality evidence for the use of technology-based interventions in the rehabilitation of executive functions and memory for children and adolescents with TBI. As all of the included studies contained relatively small numbers of participants (12 to 120), our findings should be interpreted with caution. The involvement of a clinician or therapist, rather than use of the technology, may have led to the success of these interventions. Future research should seek to replicate these findings with larger samples, in other regions, using ecologically valid outcome measures, and reduced clinician involvement.

Development and Validation of a Lateral Flow Immunoassay for the Rapid Screening of Okadaic Acid and All Dinophysis Toxins from Shellfish Extracts

A single-step lateral flow immunoassay was developed and validated to detect okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysis toxins (DTXs), which cause diarrhetic shellfish poisoning. The performance characteristics of the test were investigated, in comparison to reference methods (liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and/or bioassay), using both spiked and naturally contaminated shellfish. A portable reader was used to generate a qualitative result, indicating the absence or presence of OA-group toxins, at concentrations relevant to the maximum permitted level (MPL). Sample homogenates could be screened in 20 min (including extraction and assay time) for the presence of free toxins (OA, DTX1, DTX2). DTX3 detection could be included with the addition of a hydrolysis procedure. No matrix effects were observed from the species evaluated (mussels, scallops, oysters, and clams). Results from naturally contaminated samples (n = 72) indicated no false compliant results and no false noncompliant results at <50% MPL. Thus, the development of a new low-cost but highly effective tool for monitoring a range of important phycotoxins has been demonstrated.

Hydrogel-Forming Microneedle Arrays Allow Detection of Drugs and Glucose In Vivo: Potential for Use in Diagnosis and Therapeutic Drug Monitoring

We describe, for the first time the use of hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) arrays for minimally-invasive extraction and quantification of drug substances and glucose from skin in vitro and in vivo. MN prepared from aqueous blends of hydrolysed poly(methyl-vinylether-co-maleic anhydride) (11.1% w/w) and poly(ethyleneglycol) 10,000 daltons (5.6% w/w) and crosslinked by esterification swelled upon skin insertion by uptake of fluid. Post-removal, theophylline and caffeine were extracted from MN and determined using HPLC, with glucose quantified using a proprietary kit. In vitro studies using excised neonatal porcine skin bathed on the underside by physiologically-relevant analyte concentrations showed rapid (5 min) analyte uptake. For example, mean concentrations of 0.16 μg/mL and 0.85 μg/mL, respectively, were detected for the lowest (5 μg/mL) and highest (35 μg/mL) Franz cell concentrations of theophylline after 5 min insertion. A mean concentration of 0.10 μg/mL was obtained by extraction of MN inserted for 5 min into skin bathed with 5 μg/mL caffeine, while the mean concentration obtained by extraction of MN inserted into skin bathed with 15 μg/mL caffeine was 0.33 μg/mL. The mean detected glucose concentration after 5 min insertion into skin bathed with 4 mmol/L was 19.46 nmol/L. The highest theophylline concentration detected following extraction from a hydrogel-forming MN inserted for 1 h into the skin of a rat dosed orally with 10 mg/kg was of 0.363 μg/mL, whilst a maximum concentration of 0.063 μg/mL was detected following extraction from a MN inserted for 1 h into the skin of a rat dosed with 5 mg/kg theophylline. In human volunteers, the highest mean concentration of caffeine detected using MN was 91.31 μg/mL over the period from 1 to 2 h post-consumption of 100 mg Proplus® tablets. The highest mean blood glucose level was 7.89 nmol/L detected 1 h following ingestion of 75 g of glucose, while the highest mean glucose concentration extracted from MN was 4.29 nmol/L, detected after 3 hours skin insertion in human volunteers. Whilst not directly correlated, concentrations extracted from MN were clearly indicative of trends in blood in both rats and human volunteers. This work strongly illustrates the potential of hydrogel-forming MN in minimally-invasive patient monitoring and diagnosis. Further studies are now ongoing to reduce clinical insertion times and develop mathematical algorithms enabling determination of blood levels directly from MN measurements.

Naturally-occurring TGR5 agonists modulating glucagon-like peptide-1 biosynthesis and secretion

Selective GLP-1 secretagogues represent a novel potential therapy for type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study examined the GLP-1 secretory activity of the ethnomedicinal plant, Fagonia cretica, which is postulated to possess anti-diabetic activity. After extraction and fractionation extracts and purified compounds were tested for GLP-1 and GIP secretory activity in STC-1 pGIP/neo cells. Intracellular levels of incretin hormones and their gene expression were also determined. Crude F. cretica extracts stimulated both GLP-1 and GIP secretion, increased cellular hormone content, and upregulated gene expression of proglucagon, GIP and prohormone convertase. However, ethyl acetate partitioning significantly enriched GLP-1 secretory activity and this fraction underwent bioactivity-guided fractionation. Three isolated compounds were potent and selective GLP-1 secretagogues: quinovic acid (QA) and two QA derivatives, QA-3β-O-β-D-glycopyranoside and QA-3β-O-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(28→1)-β-D-glucopyranosyl ester. All QA compounds activated the TGR5 receptor and increased intracellular incretin levels and gene expression. QA derivatives were more potent GLP-1 secretagogues than QA. This is the first time that QA and its naturally-occurring derivatives have been shown to activate TGR5 and stimulate GLP-1 secretion. These data provide a plausible mechanism for the ethnomedicinal use of F. cretica and may assist in the ongoing development of selective GLP-1 agonists.

Fluid strategies and outcomes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, systemic inflammatory response syndrome and sepsis: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background
Fluid administration to critically ill patients remains the subject of considerable controversy. While intravenous fluid given for resuscitation may be life-saving, a positive fluid balance over time is associated with worse outcomes in critical illness. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise the existing evidence regarding the relationship between fluid administration or balance and clinically important patient outcomes in critical illness.

Methods
We will search Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from 1980 to the present and key conference proceedings from 2009 to the present. We will include studies of critically ill adults and children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We will include randomised controlled trials comparing two or more fluid regimens of different volumes of fluid and observational studies reporting the relationship between volume of fluid administered or fluid balance and outcomes including mortality, lengths of intensive care unit and hospital stay and organ dysfunction. Two independent reviewers will assess articles for eligibility, data extraction and quality appraisal. We will conduct a narrative and/or meta-analysis as appropriate.

Discussion
While fluid management has been extensively studied and discussed in the critical care literature, no systematic review has attempted to summarise the evidence for post-resuscitation fluid strategies in critical illness. Results of the proposed systematic review will inform practice and the design of future clinical trials.

Systematic review registration
PROSPERO CRD42013005608. (http://​www.​crd.​york.​ac.​uk/​PROSPERO/​)