48 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts


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This article gives an extensive overview of the wide range of analytical procedures developed for the detection of amphenicol antibiotic residues (chloramphenicol, thiamphenicol, and florfenicol) in many different types of foodstuffs (milk, meat, eggs, honey, seafood). Screening methods such as microbial inhibition methods, antibody-based immunoassays using conventional and biosensor-based detection systems, and some methods based on alternative recognition systems are described. The relative advantages and disadvantages of these methods are discussed and compared. The current status and future trends and developments in the need for accurate and rapid detection of this group of antimicrobials are also discussed.

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Recently, considerable efforts have been made in the attempt to map quick clay areas using electrical resistivity measurements. However there is a lack of understanding regarding which soil parameters control the measured resistivity values. To address this issue, inverted resistivity values from 15 marine clay sites in Norway have been compared with basic geotechnical index properties. It was found that the resistivity value is strongly controlled by the salt content of the pore fluid. Resistivity decreases rapidly with increasing salt content. There is also a relatively clear trend of decreasing resistivity with increasing clay content and plasticity index. Resistivity values become very low (˜5 O·m) for high clay content (>50%), medium- to high-plasticity (Ip ˜ 20%) materials with salt content values greater than about 8 g/L (or corresponding remoulded shear strength values greater than 4 kPa). For the range of values studied, there is poor correlation between resistivity and bulk density and between resistivity and water content. The data studied suggest that the range of resistivity values corresponding to quick clay is 10 to 100 O·m, which is consistent with other published limits. A comparison is made between two-dimensional electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and resistivity cone penetration test (RCPTU) data for two of the sites and the two sets of data show similar trends and values irrespective of scale effect.

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To describe the patient demographic characteristics and organisational factors that influence length of stay (LOS) among emergency medical admissions. Also, to describe differences in investigation practice among consultant physicians and to examine the impact of these on LOS.

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When a collection of phenotypically diverse organisms compete with each other for limited resources, the population can evolve into tightly localised clusters. Past studies have neglected the effects of demographic noise and studied the population on a macroscopic scale, where cluster formation is found to depend on the shape of the curve describing the decline of competition strength with phenotypic distance. Here we show how including the effects of demographic noise leads to a radically different conclusion. Two situations are identified: a weak-noise regime in which the population exhibits patterns of fluctuation around the macroscopic description, and a strong-noise regime where clusters appear spontaneously even in the case that all organisms have equal fitness. editor's choice Copyright (C) EPLA, 2012

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One approach to tackling problems of division in society has been to promote collaboration and engagement between schools separated on ethno-religious lines. Based on some variant of contact theory, the received wisdom is that inter-group encounters can contribute to prejudice reduction and promote more harmonious relationships. Evidence to support this analysis is convincing; however, relatively little is known about the environmental factors that impede or enhance the potential for contact in different contexts. The importance of understanding such factors is underscored in divided jurisdictions, where separate education has been linked to the perpetuation of division and hostility. This paper adopts a qualitative approach to exploring the impact of two inter-school initiatives in Northern Ireland. The projects are located in contrasting socio-political and demographic environments, and research findings point to very different contact outcomes for participants in each. Seemingly relevant factors include the degree of congruence between school and community norms and values, the opportunity to develop relationships outside the school context, the relationships developed between the schools and local communities and the historical, political and social referents used by individuals to navigate the contact experience. The paper concludes with some reflections on factors that may help foster social harmony and on potential policy implications of the findings.

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The paper examines three aspects of demographic change and conjectures about their wider impact on British society. Two features of fertility behaviour are highlighted. The first deals with ethnic variations and the likely continuation of high fertility rates amongst women of South Asian origin. The second involves the continued bifurcation between career women and those for whom motherhood remains a central life project. International migration is also assessed and the contradictions within the 'Fortress Britain' strategy exposed. Britain will continue to receive migrants from overseas and British society will become increasingly multi-ethnic. The paper also examines the tensions between an increasingly ageing population and the development of increased ethnic and cultural diversity. The paper concludes with some implications of these changes for the discipline of sociology itself.

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International exhibitions were greatly responsible for the modernization of western society. The motive for these events was based on the possibility of enhancing the country’s international status abroad. The genesis of world exhibitions came from the conviction that humanity as a whole would improve the continual flow of new practical applications, the development of modern communication techniques and the social need for a medium that could acquaint the general public with changes in technology, economy and society .
Since the first national industrial exhibitions in Paris during the eighteenth century and especially starting from the first Great Exhibition in London’s Hyde Park in 1851 these international events spread steadily all over Europe and the United States, to reach Latin America in the beginnings of the twentieth century . The work of professionals such as Daniel Burnham, Werner Hegemann and Elbert Peets made the relation between exhibitions and urban transformation a much more connected one, setting a precedent for subsequent exhibitions.
In Buenos Aires, the celebration of the centennial of independence from Spain in 1910 had many meanings and repercussions. A series of factors allowed for a moment of change in the city. Official optimism, economical progress, inequality and social conflict made of this a suitable time for transformation. With the organization of the Exposición Internacional the government had, among others, one specific aim: to achieve a network of visual tools to set the feeling of belonging and provide an identity for the mixture of cultures that populated the city of Buenos Aires at the time. Another important objective of the government was to put Buenos Aires at the level of European cities.
Foreign professionals had a great influence in the conceptual and factual shaping of the exhibition and in the subsequent changes caused in the urban condition. The exhibition had an important role in the ways of thinking the city and in the leisure ideas it introduced. The exhibition, as a didactic tool, worked as a precedent for conceiving leisure spaces in the future. Urban and landscape planners such as Joseph Bouvard and Charles Thays were instrumental in great part of the design of the Exhibition, but it was not only the architects and designers who shaped the identity of the fair. Other visitors such as Jules Huret or Georges Clemenceau were responsible for giving the city an international image it did not previously have.
This paper will explore on the one hand the significance of the exhibition of 1910 for the shaping of the city and its image; and on the other hand, the role of foreign professionals and the reach these influences had.

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Aims: To build a population pharmacokinetic model that describes the apparent clearance of tacrolimus and the potential demographic, clinical and genetically controlled factors that could lead to inter-patient pharmacokinetic variability within children following liver transplantation.

Methods: The present study retrospectively examined tacrolimus whole blood pre-dose concentrations (n = 628) of 43 children during their first year post-liver transplantation. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using the non-linear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance and influential covariates.

Results: The final model identified time post-transplantation and CYP3A5*1 allele as influential covariates on tacrolimus apparent clearance according to the following equation:

TVCL=12.9×(Weight /13.2)0.75×EXP(-0.00158×TPT)×EXP(0.428×CYP3A5)

where TVCL is the typical value for apparent clearance, TPT is time post-transplantation in days and the CYP3A5 is 1 where*1 allele is present and 0 otherwise. The population estimate and inter-individual variability (%CV) of tacrolimus apparent clearance were found to be 0.977 l h kg (95% CI 0.958, 0.996) and 40.0%, respectively, while the residual variability between the observed and predicted concentrations was 35.4%.

Conclusion: Tacrolimus apparent clearance was influenced by time post-transplantation and CYP3A5 genotypes. The results of this study, once confirmed by a large scale prospective study, can be used in conjunction with therapeutic drug monitoring to recommend tacrolimus dose adjustments that take into account not only body weight but also genetic and time-related changes in tacrolimus clearance. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

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Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.

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Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

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Previous investigators have not described some of the new anatomic variations or provided quantitative and analytical data of the arterial anatomy of the lips in as much depth as in this study. Dissections of 14 different facial sides of cadavers were done. Through investigating the arterial supply of the upper and lower lips, measurements were performed and statistically analyzed. The main arterial supply of the upper lip was from the superior labial artery (SLA, mean external diameter, 1.8 mm [SD, 0.74 mm]); in addition, the subalar and septal branches contributed to its vascularization. The origin of the SLA was above the labial commissure in 78.6%. The subalar branch was not found but replaced by the alar artery that arose from the infraorbital artery in 1 specimen. The main arterial supply of the lower lip was derived from 3 branches of the facial artery, the inferior labial artery (mean external diameters, 1.4 mm [SD, 0.31 mm]) and the horizontal and vertical labiomental arteries. The inferior labial artery originated mostly below the labial commissure in 42.9% and formed a common trunk with the SLA in 28.6%. The horizontal labiomental artery was present in all, but vertical labiomental artery was absent in 21.4% of specimens. Overall, observed anatomic variations were classified into types I to VIII. Significant relations between the demographic variables and measured parameters were reported including the correlation coefficient among evaluated parameters. In conclusion, this study provides various information that aids in creating new flaps and supports the vascular base for clinical procedures in reconstructive surgery of the lip.

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Population trends suggest that the Irish population is ageing, and that this population will have substantial treatment needs. These patients will be better informed than previous generations, and will demand treatment aimed at preserving a natural dentition. This will impact upon delivery of oral healthcare and manpower planning needs to consider how to address the increased demand for dental care. Poor oral health is associated with systemic health problems, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus. It also has a negative impact upon quality of life, and the World Health Organisation has encouraged public healthcare administrators and decision makers to design effective and affordable strategies for better oral health and quality of life of older adults, which, in turn, are integrated into general health management programmes. Treatment concepts such as minimally invasive dentistry and the shortened dental arch concept are discussed in the context of these demographic changes and recommendations.

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The Handbook of Global Contemporary Christianity: Themes and Developments in Culture, Politics, and Society maps the transformations, as well as the continuities, of the largest of the major religions - engaging with the critical global issues which relate to the faith in a fast changing world. International experts in the area offer contributions focusing on global movements; regional trends and developments; Christianity, the state, politics and polity; and Christianity and social diversity. Collectively the contributors provide a comprehensive treatment of health of the religion as Christianity enters its third millennium in existence and details the challenges and dilemmas facing its various expressions, both old and new. The volume is a companion to the Handbook of Contemporary Global Christianity: Movements, Institutions, and Allegiance.

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Background: High risk medications are commonly prescribed to older US patients. Currently, less is known about high risk medication prescribing in other Western Countries, including the UK. We measured trends and correlates of high risk medication prescribing in a subset of the older UK population (community/institutionalized) to inform harm minimization efforts. Methods: Three cross-sectional samples from primary care electronic clinical records (UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) in fiscal years 2003/04, 2007/08 and 2011/12 were taken. This yielded a sample of 13,900 people aged 65 years or over from 504 UK general practices. High risk medications were defined by 2012 Beers Criteria adapted for the UK. Using descriptive statistical methods and regression modelling, prevalence of ‘any’ (drugs prescribed at least once per year) and ‘long-term’ (drugs prescribed all quarters of year) high risk medication prescribing and correlates were determined. Results: While polypharmacy rates have risen sharply, high risk medication prevalence has remained stable across a decade. A third of older (65+) people are exposed to high risk medications, but only half of the total prevalence was long-term (any = 38.4 % [95 % CI: 36.3, 40.5]; long-term = 17.4 % [15.9, 19.9] in 2011/12). Long-term but not any high risk medication exposure was associated with older ages (85 years or over). Women and people with higher polypharmacy burden were at greater risk of exposure; lower socio-economic status was not associated. Ten drugs/drug classes accounted for most of high risk medication prescribing in 2011/12. Conclusions: High risk medication prescribing has not increased over time against a background of increasing polypharmacy in the UK. Half of patients receiving high risk medications do so for less than a year. Reducing or optimising the use of a limited number of drugs could dramatically reduce high risk medications in older people. Further research is needed to investigate why the oldest old and women are at greater risk. Interventions to reduce high risk medications may need to target shorter and long-term use separately.