Assessing Historical and Current Threats to Common Frog (Rana Temporaria) Populations in Ireland

Ponds are an ephemeral feature of the landscape but their large-scale loss can have profound implications for biodiversity and the persistence of amphibian populations. We quantified rates of pond loss throughout Ireland over a period of approximately 125 yr. Environmental parameters and perceived risk factors associated with the current occurrence and density of the Common Frog, Rana temporaria, were also analyzed. The numbers of farmland ponds declined by 54% between 1887–1913 and 2005–11, with most ponds and the greatest losses
in the East, coincident with agricultural intensification and human habitation. The decline of pond numbers was significant but, at approximately 0.5% per annum, was substantially less than losses recorded in other European countries. Losses were coincident with major changes to the agricultural landscape including extensive land drainage. However, losses of pond and natural wetland habitats throughout Ireland may have been partially or wholly mitigated by a synchronous expansion of artificial field margin ditches associated with drainage projects during the mid-20th Century. The ecology of the Common Frog in Ireland was similar to its ecology elsewhere and it appears largely unaffected by pollution and disturbance. Consequently, the conservation status of the frog in Ireland was judged ‘‘favorable’’ and should remain so for the foreseeable future.

Estimating policy positions from political texts

The analysis of policy-based party;;competition will not make serious progress beyond the constraints of (a) the unitary actor assumption and (b) a static approach to analyzing party competition between elections until a method is available for deriving; reliable and valid time-series estimates of the policy positions of large numbers of political actors. Retrospective estimation of these positions;In past party systems will require a method for estimating policy positions from political texts.

Previous hand-coding content analysis schemes deal with policy emphasis rather than policy positions. We propose a new hand-coding scheme for policy positions, together with a new English language computer,coding scheme that is compatible with this. We apply both schemes; to party manifestos from Britain and Ireland in 1992 and 1997 and cross validate the resulting estimates with :those derived from quite independent expert surveys and with previous,manifesto analyses.

There is a high degree of cross validation between coding methods. including computer coding. This implies that it is indeed possible to use computer-coded content analysis to derive reliable and valid estimates of policy positions from political texts. This will allow vast Volumes of text to be coded, including texts generated by individuals and other internal party actors, allowing the empirical elaboration of dynamic rather than static models of party competition that move beyond the unitary actor assumption.

Persistent donor chimaerism is consistent with disease-free survival following BMT for chronic myeloid leukaemia

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) can be treated successfully with allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) leading to long-term disease-free survival. Leukemia relapse, however, remains a significant clinical problem. Relapse following BMT presumably results from the expansion of small numbers of recipient leukaemic cells which have survived the conditioning therapy. In order to define patients who are at a high risk of leukaemia relapse, a variety of techniques have been employed to detect persistence of host haemopoiesis (mixed chimaerism, MC) or residual leukaemia (minimal residual disease, MRD). However, the precise relationship between the detection of MC and MRD post-BMT is unknown. We have investigated chimaerism and MRD status in 22 patients who were in clinical and haematological remission post-allogeneic BMT for chronic phase CML. Chimaerism was assessed using short tandem repeat PCR (STR-PCR) while BCR-ABL mRNA detection using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect the presence of MRD. Seventeen patients received unmanipulated marrow (non-TCD) while in five patients a T cell-depleted transplant (TCD) was performed as additional GVHD prophylaxis. Chimaerism was evaluated in 18 patients (14 non-TCD, four TCD). Mixed chimaerism was an uncommon finding in recipients of unmanipulated BMT (21%) when compared to TCD BMT (100%). No evidence of MRD, as identified using the BCR-ABL mRNA RT-PCR assay, was detected in those patients who were donor chimaeras. Early and transient MC and MRD was detected in four patients (two non-TCD, two TCD) who have subsequently converted to a donor profile. One patient has stable low-level MC but remains MRD negative 4 years post-BMT. Late MC and MRD was observed in two patients who relapsed >6 years after TCD BMT for CML. We conclude that mixed chimaerism is a rare event in recipients of unmanipulated BMT and that donor chimaerism as detected by STR-PCR assay is consistent with disease-free survival and identifies patients with a low risk of leukaemic relapse post-BMT for CML.

Genetically Determined Height and Coronary Artery Disease

Background: The nature and underlying mechanisms of an inverse association between adult height and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) are unclear. 
Methods: We used a genetic approach to investigate the association between height and CAD, using 180 height-associated genetic variants. We tested the association between a change in genetically determined height of 1 SD (6.5 cm) with the risk of CAD in 65,066 cases and 128,383 controls. Using individual-level genotype data from 18,249 persons, we also examined the risk of CAD associated with the presence of various numbers of height-associated alleles. To identify putative mechanisms, we analyzed whether genetically determined height was associated with known cardiovascular risk factors and performed a pathway analysis of the height-associated genes. 
Results: We observed a relative increase of 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4 to 22.1; P<0.001) in the risk of CAD per 1-SD decrease in genetically determined height. There was a graded relationship between the presence of an increased number of height-raising variants and a reduced risk of CAD (odds ratio for height quartile 4 versus quartile 1, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.84; P<0.001). Of the 12 risk factors that we studied, we observed significant associations only with levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides (accounting for approximately 30% of the association). We identified several overlapping pathways involving genes associated with both development and atherosclerosis. 
Conclusions: There is a primary association between a genetically determined shorter height and an increased risk of CAD, a link that is partly explained by the association between shorter height and an adverse lipid profile. Shared biologic processes that determine achieved height and the development of atherosclerosis may explain some of the association. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.)

Improving E-Assessment Systems With A focus On Adaptive Feedback And Marking

Institutions involved in the provision of tertiary education across Europe are feeling the pinch. European universities, and other higher education (HE) institutions, must operate in a climate where the pressure of government spending cuts (Garben, 2012) is in stark juxtaposition to the EU’s strategy to drive forward and maintain a growth of student numbers in the sector (eurostat, 2015).

In order to remain competitive, universities and HE institutions are making ever-greater use of electronic assessment (E-Assessment) systems (Chatzigavriil et all, 2015; Ferrell, 2012). These systems are attractive primarily because they offer a cost-effect and scalable approach for assessment. In addition to scalability, they also offer reliability, consistency and impartiality; furthermore, from the perspective of a student they are most popular because they can offer instant feedback (Walet, 2012).

There are disadvantages, though.

First, feedback is often returned to a student immediately on competition of their assessment. While it is possible to disable the instant feedback option (this is often the case during an end of semester exam period when assessment scores must be can be ratified before release), however, this option tends to be a global ‘all on’ or ‘all off’ configuration option which is controlled centrally rather than configurable on a per-assessment basis.

If a formative in-term assessment is to be taken by multiple groups of
students, each at different times, this restriction means that answers to each question will be disclosed to the first group of students undertaking the assessment. As soon as the answers are released “into the wild” the academic integrity of the assessment is lost for subsequent student groups.

Second, the style of feedback provided to a student for each question is often limited to a simple ‘correct’ or ‘incorrect’ indicator. While this type of feedback has its place, it often does not provide a student with enough insight to improve their understanding of a topic that they did not answer correctly.

Most E-Assessment systems boast a wide range of question types including Multiple Choice, Multiple Response, Free Text Entry/Text Matching and Numerical questions. The design of these types of questions is often quite restrictive and formulaic, which has a knock-on effect on the quality of feedback that can be provided in each case.

Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) are most prevalent as they are the most prescriptive and therefore most the straightforward to mark consistently. They are also the most amenable question types, which allow easy provision of meaningful, relevant feedback to each possible outcome chosen.
Text matching questions tend to be more problematic due to their free text entry nature. Common misspellings or case-sensitivity errors can often be accounted for by the software but they are by no means fool proof, as it is very difficult to predict in advance the range of possible variations on an answer that would be considered worthy of marks by a manual marker of a paper based equivalent of the same question.

Numerical questions are similarly restricted. An answer can be checked for accuracy or whether it is within a certain range of the correct answer, but unless it is a special purpose-built mathematical E-Assessment system the system is unlikely to have computational capability and so cannot, for example, account for “method marks” which are commonly awarded in paper-based marking.

From a pedagogical perspective, the importance of providing useful formative feedback to students at a point in their learning when they can benefit from the feedback and put it to use must not be understated (Grieve et all, 2015; Ferrell, 2012).

In this work, we propose a number of software-based solutions, which will overcome the limitations and inflexibilities of existing E-Assessment systems.

Automated retinal image quality assessment on the UK Biobank dataset for epidemiological studies

Morphological changes in the retinal vascular network are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, uncertainty over the presence and nature of some of these associations exists. Analysis of data from large population based studies will help to resolve these uncertainties. The QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessel Topology and siZe) retinal image analysis system allows automated processing of large numbers of retinal images. However, an image quality assessment module is needed to achieve full automation. In this paper, we propose such an algorithm, which uses the segmented vessel map to determine the suitability of retinal images for use in the creation of vessel morphometric data suitable for epidemiological studies. This includes an effective 3-dimensional feature set and support vector machine classification. A random subset of 800 retinal images from UK Biobank (a large prospective study of 500,000 middle aged adults; where 68,151 underwent retinal imaging) was used to examine the performance of the image quality algorithm. The algorithm achieved a sensitivity of 95.33% and a specificity of 91.13% for the detection of inadequate images. The strong performance of this image quality algorithm will make rapid automated analysis of vascular morphometry feasible on the entire UK Biobank dataset (and other large retinal datasets), with minimal operator involvement, and at low cost.