Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information

This paper examines simple parimutuel betting games under asymmetric information, with particular attention to differences between markets in which bets are submitted simultaneously versus sequentially. In the simultaneous parimutuel betting market, all (symmetric and asymmetric) Bayesian-Nash equilibria are generically characterized as a function of the number of bettors and the quality of their private information. There always exists a separating equilibrium, in which all bettors follow their private signals. This equilibrium is unique if the number of bettors is sufficiently large. In the sequential framework, earlier bets have information externalities, because they may reveal private information of bettors. They also have payoff externalities, because they affect the betting odds. One effect of these externalities is that the separating equilibrium disappears if the number of betting periods is sufficiently large. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Employer occupation of regulatory space of the Employee Information and Consultation (I&C) Directive in liberal market economies

This article shows how both employers and the state have influenced macro-level processes and structures concerning the content and transposition of the European Union (EU) Employee Information and Consultation (I&C) Directive. It argues that the processes of regulation occupied by employers reinforce a voluntarism which marginalizes rather than shares decision-making power with workers. The contribution advances the conceptual lens of ‘regulatory space’ by building on Lukes’ multiple faces of power to better understand how employment regulation is determined across transnational, national and enterprise levels. The research proposes an integrated analytical framework on which ‘occupancy’ of regulatory space can be evaluated in comparative national contexts.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Discovery and Evidence in Transnational Antitrust Cases: Current Framework and the Way Forward

This paper identifies and analyses the means of accessing and collecting foreign-based evidence in transnational antitrust cases. It makes an original contribution to the existing scholarship by critically addressing the available mechanisms of judicial cooperation, the possibility of reliance on domestic discovery in transnational context, as well as the existing instruments allowing for cooperation between antitrust agencies. It identifies the shortcomings of the current regulatory framework and points out to the existing good practices in those jurisdictions which provide their antitrust agencies with more leeway in sharing confidential information with foreign counterparts.

A Chronological Framework for the Period 208 BC to AD 600

The period, from the Iron Age through to what is sometimes
called the Early Christian Period or the Early Middle Ages, includes
some of the most enigmatic centuries in the whole of Irish
history. In this article we intend to look at various strands of evidence
that have become available from the perspective of dendrochronology.
However, interpretation of dendrochronological
results works best when there is other information to push
against. In the case of this period one of the best sources of parallel
information – information essentially as well dated as tree
rings – has to be records of atmospheric chemistry from the ice
cores that have been drilled at several locations across Greenland.
Combining such information with evidence from tree rings,
palaeoecological research, and occasionally from history, allows
us to trace out a series of events and episodes that form the beginnings
of an understanding of this period between the Iron
Age flowering – with sites such as Emain Mache, Tara, Cruachain
– and the Early Christian flowering – widespread foundation of churches and monasteries.

Distributed Adaptive Learning Framework for Wide Area Monitoring of Power Systems Integrated with Distributed Generations

This paper presents a preliminary study of developing a novel distributed adaptive real-time learning framework for wide area monitoring of power systems integrated with distributed generations using synchrophasor technology. The framework comprises distributed agents (synchrophasors) for autonomous local condition monitoring and fault detection, and a central unit for generating global view for situation awareness and decision making. Key technologies that can be integrated into this hierarchical distributed learning scheme are discussed to enable real-time information extraction and knowledge discovery for decision making, without explicitly accumulating and storing all raw data by the central unit. Based on this, the configuration of a wide area monitoring system of power systems using synchrophasor technology, and the functionalities for locally installed open-phasor-measurement-units (OpenPMUs) and a central unit are presented. Initial results on anti-islanding protection using the proposed approach are given to illustrate the effectiveness.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Teachers’ Perspectives on Moving Image as a digital literacy tool in Creative Classrooms

Eight Creative Classroom (CCR) elements are used as a framework for analysing teachers’ current attitudes towards the use of moving images as a tool for teaching digital literacy to pupils aged 11-18 years in the context of ‘Creative Classrooms’. This paper reports on the challenges being faced by innovative teachers willing to adopt moving image (as a new ICT) into their teaching, and highlights the gaps currently present in the systemic support structures in schools which need to be addressed for innovative pedagogical practices to occur in these Creative Classrooms. By ensuring educators learn from their experiences of poor ICT uptake in the past and utilise these lessons for future innovations in classrooms, it is hoped that the transition to moving image, and its associated digital literacy skills, will be smooth and beneficial to the learners.

Design patterns percolating to parallel programming framework implementation

Structured parallel programming is recognised as a viable and effective means of tackling parallel programming problems. Recently, a set of simple and powerful parallel building blocks RISC pb²l) has been proposed to support modelling and implementation of parallel frameworks. In this work we demonstrate how that same parallel building block set may be used to model both general purpose parallel programming abstractions, not usually listed in classical skeleton sets, and more specialized domain specific parallel patterns. We show how an implementation of RISC pb² l can be realised via the FastFlow framework and present experimental evidence of the feasibility and efficiency of the approach.

Adaptive uncertain information fusion to enhance plan selection in BDI agent systems

Correctly modelling and reasoning with uncertain information from heterogeneous sources in large-scale systems is critical when the reliability is unknown and we still want to derive adequate conclusions. To this end, context-dependent merging strategies have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we investigate how one such context-dependent merging strategy (originally defined for possibility theory), called largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCS), can be adapted to Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. We identify those measures for the degree of uncertainty and internal conflict that are available in DS theory and show how they can be used for guiding LPMCS merging. A simplified real-world power distribution scenario illustrates our framework. We also briefly discuss how our approach can be incorporated into a multi-agent programming language, thus leading to better plan selection and decision making.

An Extended Event Reasoning Framework for Decision Support under Uncertainty

To provide in-time reactions to a large volume of surveil- lance data, uncertainty-enabled event reasoning frameworks for CCTV and sensor based intelligent surveillance system have been integrated to model and infer events of interest. However, most of the existing works do not consider decision making under uncertainty which is important for surveillance operators. In this paper, we extend an event reasoning framework for decision support, which enables our framework to predict, rank and alarm threats from multiple heterogeneous sources.

A belief revision framework for revising epistemic states with partial epistemic states

Belief revision performs belief change on an agent’s beliefs when new evidence (either of the form of a propositional formula or of the form of a total pre-order on a set of interpretations) is received. Jeffrey’s rule is commonly used for revising probabilistic epistemic states when new information is probabilistically uncertain. In this paper, we propose a general epistemic revision framework where new evidence is of the form of a partial epistemic state. Our framework extends Jeffrey’s rule with uncertain inputs and covers well-known existing frameworks such as ordinal conditional function (OCF) or possibility theory. We then define a set of postulates that such revision operators shall satisfy and establish representation theorems to characterize those postulates. We show that these postulates reveal common characteristics of various existing revision strategies and are satisfied by OCF conditionalization, Jeffrey’s rule of conditioning and possibility conditionalization. Furthermore, when reducing to the belief revision situation, our postulates can induce Darwiche and Pearl’s postulates C1 and C2.

PICan: An integromics framework for dynamic cancer biomarker discovery

Modern cancer research on prognostic and predictive biomarkers demands the integration of established and emerging high-throughput technologies. However, these data are meaningless unless carefully integrated with patient clinical outcome and epidemiological information. Integrated datasets hold the key to discovering new biomarkers and therapeutic targets in cancer. We have developed a novel approach and set of methods for integrating and interrogating phenomic, genomic and clinical data sets to facilitate cancer biomarker discovery and patient stratification. Applied to a known paradigm, the biological and clinical relevance of TP53, PICan was able to recapitulate the known biomarker status and prognostic significance at a DNA, RNA and protein levels.