The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective

The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB.

Best friends and better coping: Facilitating psychological resilience through boys’ and girls’ closest friendships

This is a novel investigation of whether, and how, a single close supportive friendship may facilitate psychological resilience in socio-economically vulnerable British adolescents. A total of 409 adolescents (160 boys, 245 girls, four unknown), aged between 11 and 19 years, completed self-report measures of close friendship quality, psychological resilience, social support, and other resources. Findings revealed a significant positive association between perceived friendship quality and resilience. This relationship was facilitated through inter-related mechanisms of developing a constructive coping style (comprised of support-seeking and active coping), effort, a supportive friendship network, and reduced disengaged and externalising coping. While protective processes were encouragingly significantly present across genders, boys were more vulnerable to the deleterious effects of disengaged and externalizing coping than girls. We suggest that individual close friendships are an important potential protective mechanism accessible to most adolescents. We discuss implications of the resulting Adolescent Friendship and Resilience Model for resilience theories and integration into practice.

Practicing peace: Psychological roots of transforming conflicts

The practice of sustainable peace is a process that must be initiated, nourished and revised. The
“social energies” of conflict transformation – truth, mercy, justice, peace – offer a useful model to describe the transformative power of this practice. These social energies can be conceptualized as a combination of norms or values, on the one hand, and actions directed toward social reconstruction, on the other. As such, the social energies of conflict transformation are both the guideposts and the engine in the journey of practicing sustainable peace. This article begins by
linking psychological constructs of narrative/voice, empathy/altruism, individual/collective guilt, and security/fear with the social energies, highlighting the interdependence of processes and shifting the focus away from pathology toward an emphasis on harmony. An empirical application of how the four social energies contribute to the mobilization, maintenance and adaptations in on-going peace processes in post-war Guatemala is then presented. By analyzing the interaction among diverse actors and goals in the decade and a half since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords, current theory is extended in two ways: a) differentiation between elite and grassroots initiatives, and b) specification and evaluation the impact of various efforts on episodic and structural violence. We conclude that although national and local processes have
had limited success, more integrated practices of truth, mercy, justice and peace are necessary if Guatemala is to make sustainable peace a reality. The findings from this case study have policy and practical implications for other countries facing protracted, violent conflict.

Mode of prostate cancer detection is associated with the psychological wellbeing of survivors: results from the PiCTure study

Purpose: Many men with prostate cancer are asymptomatic, diagnosed following prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. We investigate whether mode of detection, i.e. ‘PSA detected’ or ‘clinically detected’, was associated with psychological wellbeing among prostate cancer survivors. Methods: A cross-sectional postal questionnaire was administered in 2012 to 6559 prostate cancer (ICD10 C61) survivors up to 18 years post-diagnosis, identified through population-based cancer registries in Ireland. Psychological wellbeing was assessed using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between mode of detection and depression, anxiety and stress, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical confounders. Results: The response rate was 54 % (3348/6262). Fifty-nine percent of survivors were diagnosed with asymptomatic PSA-tested disease. Prevalence of depression (13.8 vs 20.7 %; p < 0.001), anxiety (13.6 vs 20.9 %; p < 0.001) and stress (8.7 vs 13.8 %; p < 0.001) were significantly lower among survivors diagnosed with PSA-detected, than clinically detected disease. After adjusting for clinical and socio-demographic factors, survivors with clinically detected disease had significantly higher risk of depression (odds ratio (OR) = 1.46 95 % CI 1.18, 1.80; p = 0.001), anxiety (OR = 1.36 95 % CI 1.09, 1.68; p = 0.006) and stress (OR = 1.43 95 % CI 1.11, 1.85; p = 0.006) than survivors with PSA-detected disease. Conclusions: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on benefits and risks of PSA testing and may be considered by policy makers formulating population-based prostate cancer screening policies. The relatively high prevalence of negative psychological states among survivors means that a ‘risk-adapted approach’ should be implemented to screen survivors most at risk of psychological morbidity for psychological health, and mode of detection could be considered as a risk stratum.

Psychological interventions for children and young people affected by armed conflict or political violence: a systematic literature review.

Youths exposed to armed conflict have a higher prevalence of mental health and psychosocial difficulties. Diverse interventions exist that aim to ameliorate the effect of armed conflict on the psychological and psychosocial wellbeing of conflict affected youths. However, the evidence base for the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. Using standard review methodology, this review aims to address the effectiveness of psychological interventions employed among this population. The search was performed across four databases and grey literature. Article quality was assessed using the Downs and Black Quality Checklist (1998). Where possible, studies were subjected to meta-analyses. The remaining studies were included in a narrative synthesis. Eight studies concerned non clinical populations, while nine concerned clinical populations. Review findings conclude that Group Trauma Focused-Cognitive Behavioural Therapy is effective for reducing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, depression and improving prosocial behaviour among clinical cohorts. The evidence does not suggest that interventions aimed at non clinical groups within this population are effective. Despite high quality studies, further robust trials are required to strengthen the evidence base, as a lack of replication has resulted in a limited evidence base to inform practice.

Psychological distress in mothers of children admitted to a nutritional rehabilitation unit in Malawi - a comparison with other paediatric wards

In a previous study we found a very high prevalence of psychological distress in mothers of children admitted to a nutritional rehabilitation unit (NRU) in Malawi, Africa. The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence and severity of maternal distress within the NRU with that in other paediatric wards. Given the known association between poor maternal psychological well-being and child undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries, we hypothesised that distress would be higher among NRU mothers. Mothers of consecutive paediatric inpatients in a NRU, a high-dependency (and research) unit and an oncology ward were assessed for psychological distress using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ). Two hundred sixty-eight mothers were interviewed (90.3% of eligible). The prevalence of SRQ score ≥8 was 35/150 {23.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16.8- 30.9%]} on the NRU, 13/84 [15.5% (95% CI 8.5-25.0%)] on the high-dependency unit and 7/34 [20.6% (95% CI 8.7-37.9%)] on the oncology ward (χ(2)  = 2.04, P = 0.36). In linear regression analysis, the correlates of higher SRQ score were child diarrhoea on admission, child diagnosed with tuberculosis, and maternal experience of abuse by partner; child height-for-age z-score fell only just outside significance (P = 0.05). In summary, we found no evidence of greater maternal distress among the mothers of severely malnourished children within the NRU compared with mothers of paediatric inpatients with other severe illnesses. However, in support of previous research findings, we found some evidence that poor maternal psychological well-being is associated with child stunting and diarrhoea.

Psychological determinants of consumer acceptance of personalised nutrition in 9 European countries

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model of the psychological factors which predict people's intention to adopt personalised nutrition. Potential determinants of adoption included perceived risk and benefit, perceived self-efficacy, internal locus of control and health commitment.

METHODS: A questionnaire, developed from exploratory study data and the existing theoretical literature, and including validated psychological scales was administered to N=9381 participants from 9 European countries (Germany, Greece, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK, and Norway).

RESULTS: Structural equation modelling indicated that the greater participants' perceived benefits to be associated with personalised nutrition, the more positive their attitudes were towards personalised nutrition, and the greater their intention to adopt it. Higher levels of nutrition self-efficacy were related to more positive attitudes towards, and a greater expressed intention to adopt, personalised nutrition. Other constructs positively impacting attitudes towards personalised nutrition included more positive perceptions of the efficacy of regulatory control to protect consumers (e.g. in relation to personal data protection), higher self-reported internal health locus of control, and health commitment. Although higher perceived risk had a negative relationship with attitude and an inverse relationship with perceived benefit, its effects on attitude and intention to adopt personalised nutrition was less influential than perceived benefit. The model was stable across the different European countries, suggesting that psychological factors determining adoption of personalised nutrition have generic applicability across different European countries.

CONCLUSION: The results suggest that transparent provision of information about potential benefits, and protection of consumers' personal data is important for adoption, delivery of public health benefits, and commercialisation of personalised nutrition.

Comparing Shame in Clinical and Nonclinical Populations: Preliminary Findings

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a preliminary study comparing different trauma and clinical populations on types of shame coping style and levels of state shame and guilt.

METHODS: A mixed independent groups/correlational design was employed. Participants were recruited by convenience sampling of 3 clinical populations-complex trauma (n = 65), dissociative identity disorder (DID; n = 20), and general mental health (n = 41)-and a control group of healthy volunteers (n = 125). All participants were given (a) the Compass of Shame Scale, which measures the four common shame coping behaviors/styles of "withdrawal," "attack self," "attack other," and "avoidance," and (b) the State Shame and Guilt Scale, which assesses state shame, guilt, and pride.

RESULTS: The DID group exhibited significantly higher levels of "attack self," "withdrawal," and "avoidance" relative to the other groups. The complex trauma and general mental health groups did not differ on any shame variable. All three clinical groups had significantly greater levels of the "withdrawal" coping style and significantly impaired shame/guilt/pride relative to the healthy volunteers. "Attack self" emerged as a significant predictor of increased state shame in the complex trauma, general mental health, and healthy volunteer groups, whereas "withdrawal" was the sole predictor of state shame in the DID group.

CONCLUSIONS: DID emerged as having a different profile of shame processes compared to the other clinical groups, whereas the complex trauma and general mental health groups had comparable shame levels and variable relationships. These differential profiles of shame coping and state shame are discussed with reference to assessment and treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record

An Assessment of Psychological Need in Emergency Medical Staff in the Northern Health and Social Care Trust Area

Setting: Psychological stress is increasingly recognised within emergency medicine, given the environmental and clinical stressors associated with the specialism. The current study assessed whether psychological distress is experienced by emergency medical staff and if so, what is the expressed need within this population? Participants: Participants included ambulance personnel, nursing staff, doctors and ancillary support staff within two Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments and twelve ambulance bases within one Trust locality in NI (N = 107). Primary and secondary outcome measures: The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12, Goldberg, 1972, 1978), Secondary Traumatic Stress Scale (STSS, Bride, 2004) and an assessment of need questionnaire were completed and explored using mixed method analysis. Results: Results showed elevated levels of psychological distress within each profession except ambulance service clinical support officers (CSOs). Elevated levels of secondary trauma symptomatology were also found; the highest were within some nursing grades and junior doctors. Decreased enjoyment in job over time was significantly associated with higher scores. Analysis of qualitative data identified sources of stress to include low morale. A total of 65% of participants thought that work related stressors had negatively affected their mental health. Participants explored what they felt could decrease psychological distress including improved resources and psychoeducation. Conclusion: There were elevated levels of distress and secondary traumatic stress within this population as well as an expressed level of need, on both systemic and support levels.