Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

"Variations on Psycho Killer" - Musical Score. Commissioned by Pauline Kim Harris. A virtuosic set of variations on the famous Talking Heads song for solo violin. General information State: Unpublished Organisations: School of Creative Arts, Sonic Arts, UOA35 - Music, Drama, Dance and Performing Arts Authors: Lyon, E. Keywords: (Talking Heads, Violin Music) Publication date: 2012

Musical Score. Commissioned by Pauline Kim Harris. A virtuosic set of variations on the famous Talking Heads song for solo violin.

The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Dual-processes in learning and judgment:Evidence from the multiple cue probability learning paradigm

Multiple cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion based on a set of novel cues when feedback is provided in response to each judgment made. But to what extent does MCPL require controlled attention and explicit hypothesis testing? The results of two experiments show that this depends on cue polarity. Learning about cues that predict positively is aided by automatic cognitive processes, whereas learning about cues that predict negatively is especially demanding on controlled attention and hypothesis testing processes. In the studies reported here, negative, but not positive cue learning related to individual differences in working memory capacity both on measures of overall judgment performance and modelling of the implicit learning process. However, the introduction of a novel method to monitor participants' explicit beliefs about a set of cues on a trial-by-trial basis revealed that participants were engaged in explicit hypothesis testing about positive and negative cues, and explicit beliefs about both types of cues were linked to working memory capacity. Taken together, our results indicate that while people are engaged in explicit hypothesis testing during cue learning, explicit beliefs are applied to judgment only when cues are negative. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

The role of working memory capacity in multiple-cue probability learning

Multiple-cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion when outcome feedback is provided for multiple cues. A great deal of research suggests that working memory capacity (WMC) is involved in a wide range of tasks that draw on higher level cognitive processes. In three experiments, we examined the role of WMC in MCPL by introducing measures of working memory capacity, as well as other task manipulations. While individual differences in WMC positively predicted performance in some kinds of multiple-cue tasks, performance on other tasks was entirely unrelated to these differences. Performance on tasks that contained negative cues was correlated with working memory capacity, as well as measures of explicit knowledge obtained in the learning process. When the relevant cues predicted positively, however, WMC became irrelevant. The results are discussed in terms of controlled and automatic processes in learning and judgement. © 2011 The Experimental Psychology Society.

Score for neonatal acute physiology-II and neonatal pain predict corticospinal tract development in premature newborns

Premature infants are at risk for adverse motor outcomes, including cerebral palsy and developmental coordination disorder. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of antenatal, perinatal, and postnatal risk factors for abnormal development of the corticospinal tract, the major voluntary motor pathway, during the neonatal period. In a prospective cohort study, 126 premature neonates (24-32 weeks' gestational age) underwent serial brain imaging near birth and at term-equivalent age. With diffusion tensor tractography, mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract were measured to reflect microstructural development. Generalized estimating equation models examined associations of risk factors on corticospinal tract development. The perinatal risk factor of greater early illness severity (as measured by the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-II [SNAP-II]) was associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.02), even after correcting for gestational age at birth and postnatal risk factors (P = 0.009). Consistent with previous findings, neonatal pain adjusted for morphine and postnatal infection were also associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). Lessening illness severity in the first hours of life might offer potential to improve motor pathway development in premature newborns.

New surgical approach in the management of pseudophakic malignant glaucoma

Purpose: To describe a new surgical approach in the management of pseudophakic malignant glaucoma. Design: Noncomparative case series. Participants: Five consecutive patients with pseudophakic malignant glaucoma. Methods: All patients underwent zonulo-hyaloido-vitrectomy. The procedure involves the performance of zonulectomy, hyaloidectomy, and anterior vitrectomy (zonulo-hyaloido-vitrectomy) through a peripheral iridectomy or iridotomy via the anterior chamber. Main Outcome Measures: Medications, visual acuity, intraocular pressure, and anterior and posterior segment findings were recorded before and after surgery. Results: Resolution of the malignant glaucoma was achieved in all cases. No recurrences were observed after a median follow-up of 5.5 months (range, 1-9 months). In one patient with extensive anterior synechiae, bleb failure occurred after the resolution of the malignant glaucoma. This patient was treated successfully with a guarded filtration procedure supplemented with 5-fluorouracil. No other complications were observed. Conclusions: Zonulo-hyaloido-vitrectomy via the anterior segment appears to be an alternative option in the treatment of patients with pseudophakic malignant glaucoma. © 2001 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Long-term graft survival in patients with flexible open-loop anterior- chamber intraocular lenses

Purpose. To evaluate the long-term graft survival and complications of flexible, open-loop anterior-chamber intraocular lenses in patients with penetrating keratoplasty for pseudophakic or aphakic bullous keratopathy. Methods. We reviewed charts of all consecutive patients who underwent penetrating keratoplasty for pseudophakic or aphakic bullous keratopathy combined with implantation of a flexible, open-loop, anterior-chamber intraocular lens at our institution between 1983 and 1988. One-hundred one eyes of 99 patients were evaluated. Graft-survival rates were calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier actuarial method. Results. Mean follow-up was 49.8 months (range. 1-144). The probability of graft survival at 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 years was 93, 87, 78, 65, and 65%, respectively. A total of 25 (24.8%) grafts failed. Progressive corneal edema without signs of rejection was the most common finding in patients with failed grafts (10 eyes, 40%). The most frequent complication observed was newly diagnosed or worsening of preexisting glaucoma (46 eyes, 45.5%). Conclusions. Our long-term results support flexible, open-loop anterior-chamber intraocular lenses as a reasonable option, at the time of penetrating keratoplasty, in patients with pseudophakic and aphakic bullous keratopathy.

Screening tests for detecting open-angle glaucoma: systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE: To assess the comparative accuracy of potential screening tests for open angle glaucoma (OAG).

METHODS: Medline, Embase, Biosis (to November 2005), Science Citation Index (to December 2005), and The Cochrane Library (Issue 4, 2005) were searched. Studies assessing candidate screening tests for detecting OAG in persons older than 40 years that reported true and false positives and negatives were included. Meta-analysis was undertaken using the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model.

RESULTS: Forty studies enrolling over 48,000 people reported nine tests. Most tests were reported by only a few studies. Frequency-doubling technology (FDT; C-20-1) was significantly more sensitive than ophthalmoscopy (30, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0-62) and Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT; 45, 95% CrI 17-68), whereas threshold standard automated perimetry (SAP) and Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph (HRT II) were both more sensitive than GAT (41, 95% CrI 14-64 and 39, 95% CrI 3-64, respectively). GAT was more specific than both FDT C-20-5 (19, 95% CrI 0-53) and threshold SAP (14, 95% CrI 1-37). Judging performance by diagnostic odds ratio, FDT, oculokinetic perimetry, and HRT II are promising tests. Ophthalmoscopy, SAP, retinal photography, and GAT had relatively poor performance as single tests. These findings are based on heterogeneous data of limited quality and as such are associated with considerable uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS: No test or group of tests was clearly superior for glaucoma screening. Further research is needed to evaluate the comparative accuracy of the most promising tests.

Evaluation of quality of life and priorities of patients with glaucoma

PURPOSE: To investigate the quality of life and priorities of patients with glaucoma.

METHODS: Patients diagnosed with glaucoma and no other ocular comorbidity were consecutively recruited. Clinical information was collected. Participants were asked to complete three questionnaires: EuroQuol (EQ-5D), time tradeoff (TTO), and choice-based conjoint analysis. The latter used five-attribute outcomes: (1) reading and seeing detail, (2) peripheral vision, (3) darkness and glare, (4) household chores, and (5) outdoor mobility. Visual field loss was estimated by using binocular integrated visual fields (IVFs).

RESULTS: Of 84 patients invited to participate, 72 were enrolled in the study. The conjoint utilities showed that the two main priorities were "reading and seeing detail" and "outdoor mobility." This rank order was stable across all segmentations of the data by demographic or visual state. However, the relative emphasis of these priorities changed with increasing visual field loss, with concerns for central vision increasing, whereas those for outdoor mobility decreased. Two subgroups of patients with differing priorities on the two main attributes were identified. Only 17% of patients (those with poorer visual acuity) were prepared to consider TTO. A principal component analysis revealed relatively independent components (i.e., low correlations) between the three different methodologies for assessing quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS: Assessments of quality of life using different methodologies have been shown to produce different outcomes with low intercorrelations between them. Only a minority of patients were prepared to trade time for a return to normal vision. Conjoint analysis showed two subgroups with different priorities. Severity of glaucoma influenced the relative importance of priorities.

Detection of visual-field deterioration by Glaucoma Progression Analysis and Threshold Noiseless Trend programs

BACKGROUND: To compare the ability of Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) and Threshold Noiseless Trend (TNT) programs to detect visual-field deterioration.

METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma followed for a minimum of 2 years and a minimum of seven reliable visual fields were included. Progression was assessed subjectively by four masked glaucoma experts, and compared with GPA and TNT results. Each case was judged to be stable, deteriorated or suspicious of deterioration

RESULTS: A total of 56 eyes of 42 patients were followed with a mean of 7.8 (SD 1.0) tests over an average of 5.5 (1.04) years. Interobserver agreement to detect progression was good (mean kappa = 0.57). Progression was detected in 10-19 eyes by the experts, in six by GPA and in 24 by TNT. Using the consensus expert opinion as the gold standard (four clinicians detected progression), the GPA sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 83%, respectively, while the TNT sensitivity and specificity was 100% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: TNT showed greater concordance with the experts than GPA in the detection of visual-field deterioration. GPA showed a high specificity but lower sensitivity, mainly detecting cases of high focality and pronounced mean defect slopes.

Transcameral suture to prevent tube-corneal touch after glaucoma drainage device implantation: a new surgical technique

PURPOSE: To report a new technique to correct tube position in anterior chamber after glaucoma drainage device implantation.

PATIENT AND METHODS: A patient who underwent a glaucoma drainage device implantation was noted to have the tube touching the corneal endothelium. A 10/0 polypropylene suture with double-armed 3-inch long straight needle was placed transcamerally from limbus to limbus, in the superior part of the eye, passing the needle in front of the tube.

RESULTS: The position of the tube in the anterior chamber was corrected with optimal distance from corneal endothelium and iris surface. The position remained satisfactory after 20 months of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS: The placement of a transcameral suture offers a safe, quick, and minimal invasive intervention for the correction of the position of a glaucoma drainage device tube in the anterior chamber.

The prevalence of primary angle closure glaucoma in European derived populations: a systematic review

AIM: To estimate the prevalence of primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) in European derived populations.

METHOD: Systematic review and modelling of PACG prevalence data from population studies. PACG was defined according to the ISGEO definition requiring structural and/or functional evidence of glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Prevalence estimates were applied to the 2010 United Nations projected population figures to estimate case numbers.

RESULTS: The prevalence of PACG in those 40 years or more is 0.4% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.5%). Age-specific prevalence values are 0.02% (CI 0.00 to 0.08) for those 40-49 years, 0.60% (0.27 to 1.00) for those 50-59 years, 0.20% (0.06 to 0.42) for those 60-69 years and 0.94% (0.63 to 1.35) for those 70 years and older. Three-quarters of all cases occur in female subjects (3.25 female to 1 male; CI 1.76 to 5.94).

CONCLUSION: This analysis provides a current evidence-based estimate of PACG prevalence in European derived populations and suggests there are 130,000 people in the UK, 1.60 million people in Europe and 581,000 people in the USA with PACG today. Accounting for ageing population structures, cases are predicted to increase by 19% in the UK, 9% in Europe and 18% in the USA within the next decade. PACG is more common than previously thought, and all primary glaucoma cases should be considered to be PACG until the anterior chamber angle is shown to be open on gonioscopy.