The suppression of q card selections: Evidence for deductive inference in Wason's Selection Task

The results of three experiments investigating the role of deductive inference in Wason's selection task are reported. In Experiment 1, participants received either a standard one-rule problem or a task containing a second rule, which specified an alternative antecedent. Both groups of participants were asked to select those cards that they considered were necessary to test whether the rule common to both problems was true or false. The results showed a significant suppression of q card selections in the two-rule condition. In addition there was weak evidence for both decreased p selection and increased not-q selection. In Experiment 2 we again manipulated number of rules and found suppression of q card selections only. Finally, in Experiment 3 we compared one- and two-rule conditions with a two-rule condition where the second rule specified two alternative antecedents in the form of a disjunction. The q card selections were suppressed in both of the two-rule conditions but there was no effect of whether the second rule contained one or two alternative antecedents. We argue that our results support the claim that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the indicative selection task.

A SuperWASP search for additional transiting planets in 24 known systems

We present results from a search for additional transiting planets in 24 systems already known to contain a transiting planet. We model the transits due to the known planet in each system and subtract these models from light curves obtained with the SuperWASP (Wide Angle Search for Planets) survey instruments. These residual light curves are then searched for evidence of additional periodic transit events. Although we do not find any evidence for additional planets in any of the planetary systems studied, we are able to characterize our ability to find such planets by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Artificially generated transit signals corresponding to planets with a range of sizes and orbital periods were injected into the SuperWASP photometry and the resulting light curves searched for planets. As a result, the detection efficiency as a function of both the radius and orbital period of any second planet is calculated. We determine that there is a good (>50 per cent) chance of detecting additional, Saturn-sized planets in P ~ 10 d orbits around planet-hosting stars that have several seasons of SuperWASP photometry. Additionally, we confirm previous evidence of the rotational stellar variability of WASP-10, and refine the period of rotation. We find that the period of the rotation is 11.91 +/- 0.05 d, and the false alarm probability for this period is extremely low (~10-13).

Multimodal Biometric Human Recognition for Perceptual Human-Computer Interaction

In this paper, a novel video-based multimodal biometric verification scheme using the subspace-based low-level feature fusion of face and speech is developed for specific speaker recognition for perceptual human--computer interaction (HCI). In the proposed scheme, human face is tracked and face pose is estimated to weight the detected facelike regions in successive frames, where ill-posed faces and false-positive detections are assigned with lower credit to enhance the accuracy. In the audio modality, mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are extracted for voice-based biometric verification. In the fusion step, features from both modalities are projected into nonlinear Laplacian Eigenmap subspace for multimodal speaker recognition and combined at low level. The proposed approach is tested on the video database of ten human subjects, and the results show that the proposed scheme can attain better accuracy in comparison with the conventional multimodal fusion using latent semantic analysis as well as the single-modality verifications. The experiment on MATLAB shows the potential of the proposed scheme to attain the real-time performance for perceptual HCI applications.

Comparison of porcine urine and bile as matrices to screen for the residues of two sulfonamides using a semi-automated enzyme immunoassay.

Porcine urine enzyme immunoassays for sulfamethazine and sulfadiazine have previously been employed as screening tests to predict the concentrations of the drugs in the corresponding tissues (kidneys), If a urine was found positive (> 800 ng ml(-1)) the corresponding kidney was then analysed by an enzyme immunoassay and, if found positive, a confirmatory analysis by HPLC was performed. Urine was chosen as the screening matrix since sulfonamides are mainly eliminated through this body fluid, However, after obtaining a number of false positive predictions, an investigation was carried out to assess the possibility of using an alternative body fluid which would act as a superior indicator of the presence of sulfonamides in porcine kidney, An initial study indicated that serum, plasma and bile could all be used as screening matrices. From these, bile was chosen as the preferred sample matrix and an extensive study followed to compare the efficiencies of sulfonamide positive bile and urine at predicting sulphonamide positive kidneys, Bile was found to be 17 times more efficient than urine at predicting a sulfamethazine positive kidney and 11 times more efficient at predicting a sulfadiazine positive kidney, With this enhanced performance of the initial screening test, the need for the costly and time consuming kidney enzyme immunoassay, prior to HPLC analysis, was eliminated

Towards accurate estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple testing

Background

Biomedical researchers are now often faced with situations where it is necessary to test a large number of hypotheses simultaneously, eg, in comparative gene expression studies using high-throughput microarray technology. To properly control false positive errors the FDR (false discovery rate) approach has become widely used in multiple testing. The accurate estimation of FDR requires the proportion of true null hypotheses being accurately estimated. To date many methods for estimating this quantity have been proposed. Typically when a new method is introduced, some simulations are carried out to show the improved accuracy of the new method. However, the simulations are often very limited to covering only a few points in the parameter space.

Results

Here I have carried out extensive in silico experiments to compare some commonly used methods for estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses. The coverage of these simulations is unprecedented thorough over the parameter space compared to typical simulation studies in the literature. Thus this work enables us to draw conclusions globally as to the performance of these different methods. It was found that a very simple method gives the most accurate estimation in a dominantly large area of the parameter space. Given its simplicity and its overall superior accuracy I recommend its use as the first choice for estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple testing.

Clinical and economic impact of contaminated blood cultures within the hospital setting

Blood cultures have an important role in the diagnosis of serious infections, although contamination of blood cultures (i.e. false-positive blood cultures) is a common problem within the hospital setting. The objective of the present investigation was to determine the impact of the false-positive blood culture results on the following outcomes: length of stay, hotel costs, antimicrobial costs, and costs of laboratory and radiological investigation. A retrospective case-control study design was used in which 142 false-positive blood culture cases were matched with suitable controls (patients for whom cultures were reported as true negatives). The matching criteria included age, comorbidity score and month of admission to the hospital. The research covered a 13-month period (July 2007 to July 2008). The findings indicated that differences in means, between cases and controls, for the length of hospital stay and the total costs were 5.4 days [95% CI (confidence interval): 2.8-8.1 days; P

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

Objective To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. Methods Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the “gold standard measure,” chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. Results The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. Conclusion We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.

Detecting Ca2+ sparks on stationary and varying baselines.

Studies concerning the physiological significance of Ca2+ sparks often depend on the detection and measurement of large populations of events in noisy microscopy images. Automated detection methods have been developed to quickly and objectively distinguish potential sparks from noise artifacts. However, previously described algorithms are not suited to the reliable detection of sparks in images where the local baseline fluorescence and noise properties can vary significantly, and risk introducing additional bias when applied to such data sets. Here, we describe a new, conceptually straightforward approach to spark detection in linescans that addresses this issue by combining variance stabilization with local baseline subtraction. We also show that in addition to greatly increasing the range of images in which sparks can be automatically detected, the use of a more accurate noise model enables our algorithm to achieve similar detection sensitivities with fewer false positives than previous approaches when applied both to synthetic and experimental data sets. We propose, therefore, that it might be a useful tool for improving the reliability and objectivity of spark analysis in general, and describe how it might be further optimized for specific applications.

Analysis of information leakage from encrypted Skype conversations

Voice over IP (VoIP) has experienced a tremendous growth over the last few years and is now widely used among the population and for business purposes. The security of such VoIP systems is often assumed, creating a false sense of privacy. This paper investigates in detail the leakage of information from Skype, a widely used and protected VoIP application. Experiments have shown that isolated phonemes can be classified and given sentences identified. By using the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm, frequently used in speech processing, an accuracy of 60% can be reached. The results can be further improved by choosing specific training data and reach an accuracy of 83% under specific conditions. The initial results being speaker dependent, an approach involving the Kalman filter is proposed to extract the kernel of all training signals.

On the Performance of Eigenvalue-Based Cooperative Spectrum Sensing for Cognitive Radio

In this paper, the distribution of the ratio of extreme eigenvalues of a complex Wishart matrix is studied in order to calculate the exact decision threshold as a function of the desired probability of false alarm for the maximum-minimum eigenvalue (MME) detector. In contrast to the asymptotic analysis reported in the literature, we consider a finite number of cooperative receivers and a finite number of samples and derive the exact decision threshold for the probability of false alarm. The proposed exact formulation is further reduced to the case of two receiver-based cooperative spectrum sensing. In addition, an approximate closed-form formula of the exact threshold is derived in terms of a desired probability of false alarm for a special case having equal number of receive antennas and signal samples. Finally, the derived analytical exact decision thresholds are verified with Monte-Carlo simulations. We show that the probability of detection performance using the proposed exact decision thresholds achieves significant performance gains compared to the performance of the asymptotic decision threshold.

Children’s attributions of belief to humans and God: cross-cultural evidence

The capacity to attribute beliefs to others in order to understand action is one of the mainstays of human cognition. Yet it is debatable whether children attribute beliefs in the same way to all agents. In this paper, we present the results of a false-belief task concerning humans and God run with a sample of Maya children aged 4–7, and place them in the context of several psychological theories of cognitive development. Children were found to attribute beliefs in different ways to humans and God. The evidence also speaks to the debate concerning the universality and uniformity of the development of folk-psychological reasoning.

Fasciola hepatica: Comparative effects of host resistance and parasite intra-specific interactions on size and reproductive histology in flukes from rats infected with isolates differing in triclabendazole sensitivity

The efficacies of putative fasciolicides and vaccines against Fasciola hepatica are frequently monitored in clinical and field trials by determination of fluke egg output in host faeces and by worm counts in the host liver at autopsy. Less often used are parameters based on fluke size and histology, yet these can provide important indications of specific effects on the development of particular germ-line or somatic tissues, especially in relation to the timing and profligacy of egg production. In this study. F. hepatica metacercariae of two distinct isolates, the triclabendazole (TCBZ)-sensitive Cullompton isolate and the TCBZ-resistant Oberon isolate, were administered to rats as single-isolate or mixed-isolate infections. At autopsy 16 weeks later individual adult flukes were counted, measured and the reproductive organs were examined histologically. The degree of development of the testis tubules in each fluke was represented by a numerical score, based on the proportion of the histological section profiles occupied by testis tissue. The level of anti-F. hepatica antibody in the serum of each rat was determined by ELISA. It was found that Cullompton flukes were significantly larger than Oberon flukes, and that significantly more Cullompton metacercariae developed to adults than Oberon metacercariae. The Cullompton flukes showed histological evidence of aspermy and spermatogenic arrest, which was reflected in quantitatively reduced testicular development, as compared with the Oberon isolate. In Cullompton flukes, parthenogenetic egg development is implied. The size of Cullompton and Oberon flukes was significantly related to the number of adult flukes recovered, to the number of metacercariae administered, and to the percentage success of infection. The testis development score in both isolates was significantly related to the number of adult flukes recovered but not to the number of metacercariae administered, or to the percentage success of infection. Fluke size was positively related to testis score for both isolates, and a significant negative relationship was found between percentage success of infection and metacercarial dose. The results are interpreted in terms of differing interactions between various numbers of young flukes and host immunity during invasion of and migration in the hepatic parenchyma, and of fluke intra-specific (possibly pheromonal) stimulatory effects in the final stages of development, within the host bile ducts. No significant relationships were found between host antibody levels and fluke size or testis score. False positive serological reactions were found in some rats that had been infected, but found to harbour no flukes at autopsy. Clearly the act of eliminating the flukes involved generation of an immune response. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Independent Discovery of the Transiting Exoplanet HAT-P-14b

We present SuperWASP observations of HAT-P-14b, a hot Jupiter discovered by Torres et al. The planet was found independently by the SuperWASP team and named WASP-27b after follow-up observations had secured the discovery, but prior to the publication by Torres et al. Our analysis of HAT-P-14/WASP-27 is in good agreement with the values found by Torres et al. and we provide additional evidence against astronomical false positives. Due to the brightness of the host star, V-mag = 10, HAT-P-14b is an attractive candidate for further characterization observations. The planet has a high impact parameter and the primary transit is close to grazing. This could readily reveal small deviations in the orbital parameters indicating the presence of a third body in the system, which may be causing the small but significant orbital eccentricity. Our results suggest that the planet may undergo a grazing secondary eclipse. However, even a non-detection would tightly constrain the system parameters.

WASP-41b: A Transiting Hot Jupiter Planet Orbiting a Magnetically Active G8V Star

We report the discovery of a transiting planet with an orbital period of 3.05 days orbiting the star TYC 7247-587-1. The star, WASP-41, is a moderately bright G8 V star (V=11.6) with a metallicity close to solar ([Fe/H]=-0.08±0.09). The star shows evidence of moderate chromospheric activity, both from emission in the cores of the Ca ii H and K ines and photometric variability with a period of 18.4 days and an amplitude of about 1%. We use a new method to show quantitatively that this periodic signal has a low false-alarm probability. The rotation period of the star implies a gyrochronological age for WASP-41 of 1.8 Gyr with an error of about 15%. We have used a combined analysis of the available photometric and spectroscopic data to derive the mass and radius of the planet (0.92±0.06 M, 1.20±0.06 R). Further observations of WASP-41 can be used to explore the connections between the properties of hot Jupiter planets and the level of chromospheric activity in their host stars.

Qatar-1b: a hot Jupiter orbiting a metal-rich K dwarf star

We report the discovery and initial characterization of Qatar-1b, a hot Jupiter-orbiting metal-rich K dwarf star, the first planet discovered by the Qatar Exoplanet Survey. We describe the strategy used to select candidate transiting planets from photometry generated by the Qatar Exoplanet Survey camera array. We examine the rate of astrophysical and other false positives found during the spectroscopic reconnaissance of the initial batch of candidates. A simultaneous fit to the follow-up radial velocities and photometry of Qatar-1b yields a planetary mass of 1.09 ± 0.08 MJ and a radius of 1.16 ± 0.05 RJ. The orbital period and separation are 1.420 033 ± 0.000 016 d and 0.023 43 ± 0.000 26 au for an orbit assumed to be circular. The stellar density, effective temperature and rotation rate indicate an age greater than 4 Gyr for the system.