Modelling distributional trends to inform conservation strategies for endangered species

Aim: Species loss has increased significantly over the last 1000 years and is ultimately attributed to the direct and indirect consequences of increased human population growth across the planet. A growing number of species are becoming endangered and require human intervention to prevent their local extirpation or complete extinction. Management strategies aimed at mitigating a species loss can benefit greatly from empirical approaches that indicate the rate of decline of a species providing objective information on the need for immediate conservation actions, e.g. captive breeding; however, this is rarely employed. The current study used a novel method to examine the distributional trends of a model endangered species, the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.).
Location: United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.
Methods: Using species presence data within 10-km grid squares since records began three-parameter logistic regression curves were fitted to extrapolate an estimated date of regional extinction.
Results: This study has shown that freshwater pearl mussel distribution has contracted since known historical records and outlier populations were lost first. Within the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, distribution loss has been greatest in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England, respectively, with the Republic of Ireland containing the highest relative proportion of M. margaritifera distribution, in 1998.
Main conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence that this species could become extinct throughout countries within the United Kingdom within 170 years under the current trends and emphasizes that regionally specific management strategies need to be implemented to prevent extirpation of this species.

WASP-23b: a transiting hot Jupiter around a K dwarf and its Rossiter-McLaughlin effect

We report the discovery of a new transiting planet in the southern hemisphere. It was found by the WASP-south transit survey and confirmed photometrically and spectroscopically by the 1.2 m Swiss Euler telescope, LCOGT 2m Faulkes South Telescope, the 60 cm TRAPPIST telescope, and the ESO 3.6 m telescope. The orbital period of the planet is 2.94 days. We find that it is a gas giant with a mass of 0.88 ± 0.10 MJ and an estimated radius of 0.96 ± 0.05 RJ. We obtained spectra during transit with the HARPS spectrograph and detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect despite its small amplitude. Because of the low signal-to-noise ratio of the effect and a small impact parameter, we cannot place a strong constraint on the projected spin-orbit angle. We find two conflicting values for the stellar rotation. We find, via spectral line broadening, that v sin I = 2.2 ± 0.3 km s-1, while applying another method, based on the activity level using the index log R'_HK, gives an equatorial rotation velocity of only v = 1.35 ± 0.20 km s-1. Using these as priors in our analysis, the planet might be either misaligned or aligned. This result raises doubts about the use of such priors. There is evidence of neither eccentricity nor any radial velocity drift with time. Using WASP-South photometric observations confirmed with LCOGT Faulkes South Telescope, the 60 cm TRAPPIST telescope, the CORALIE spectrograph and the camera from the Swiss 1.2 m Euler Telescope placed at La Silla, Chile, as well as with the HARPS spectrograph, mounted on the ESO 3.6 m, also at La Silla, under proposal 084.C-0185. The data is publicly available at the CDS Strasbourg and on demand to the main author.RV data is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/531/A24Appendix is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Measurement of single mode imprint in laser ablative drive of a thin Al foil by extreme ultraviolet laser radiography

The temporal development of laser driven single mode perturbations in thin A1 foils has been measured using extreme ultraviolet (XUV) laser radiography. 15, 30, 70 and 90 mu m single modes were imprinted on 2 mu m thick A1 foils with an optical driver laser at 527 nm for intensities in the range 5 x 10(12) to 1.5 x 10(13) W cm(-2). The magnitude of the imprinted perturbation at the time of shock break out was determined by fitting to the data estimated curves of growth of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability after shock break out. The efficiency of imprinting is independent of perturbation wavelength in the parameter range of this experiment, suggesting little influence of thermal conduction smoothing. The results are of interest for directly driven inertially confined fusion. (C) 1998 American Institute of Physics.

Plasma parameter characterization of a reflex plasma source operating in oxygen

A reflex discharge plasma, obtained as a hybrid between a Penning discharge plasma (PDP) and a hollow-cathode discharge (HCD) plasma, is analysed as a possible direction-current, high-density plasma source. The experiment is run in oxygen at pressures of 10 mTorr and 1 mTorr, and for discharge currents of 100 to 200 mA. Although the gas pressure is considerably lower than those used in HCDs, the hollow-cathode effect (HCE) occurs for current levels higher than 100 mA and leads to plasma densities comparable with those obtained using inductive plasma sources. The presence of a constant magnetic field leads to the enhancement of electron emission from cathodes under ion bombardment, and to the decreasing of the ion loss by diffusion to the wall.

RFID based Efficient Lighting Control

The Kyoto Protocol and the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive put an onus on governments
and organisations to lower carbon footprint in order to contribute towards reducing global warming. A key
parameter to be considered in buildings towards energy and cost savings is its indoor lighting that has a major
impact on overall energy usage and Carbon Dioxide emissions. Lighting control in buildings using Passive
Infrared sensors is a reliable and well established approach; however, the use of only Passive Infrared does not
offer much savings towards reducing carbon, energy, and cost. Accurate occupancy monitoring information can
greatly affect a building’s lighting control strategy towards a greener usage. This paper presents an approach for
data fusion of Passive Infrared sensors and passive Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) based occupancy
monitoring. The idea is to have efficient, need-based, and reliable control of lighting towards a green indoor
environment, all while considering visual comfort of occupants. The proposed approach provides an estimated
13% electrical energy savings in one open-plan office of a University building in one working day. Practical
implementation of RFID gateways provide real-world occupancy profiling data to be fused with Passive
Infrared sensing towards analysis and improvement of building lighting usage and control.

Allometric analysis of Sitka spruce branches:Mechanical versus hydraulic design principles

The geometry of tree branches can have considerable effect on their efficiency in terms of carbon export per unit carbon investment in structure. The purpose of this study was to evaluate different design criteria using data describing the form of Picea sitchensis branches. Allometric analysis of the data suggests that resources are distributed to favour shoots with the greatest opportunity for extension into new space, with priority to the extension of the leader. The distribution of allometric relations of links (branch elements) was tested against two models: the pipe model, based on hydraulic transport requirements, and a static load model based on the requirement of shoots to provide mechanical resistance to static loads. Static load resistance required the load parameter to be proportional to the link radius raised to the power of 4. This was shown to be true within a 95% statistical confidence limit. The pipe model would require total distal length to be proportional to link radius squared but the measured branches did not conform well to this model. The comparison suggests that the diameters of branch elements were more related to the requirements for mechanical load. The cost of following a hydraulic design principle (the pipe model) in terms of mechanical efficiency was estimated and suggested that the pipe model branch would not be mechanically compromised but would use structural resources inefficiently. Resource allocation among branch elements was found to be consistent with mechanical stability criteria but also indicated the possibility of allocation based on other criteria, such as potential light interception by shoots. The evidence suggests that whilst branch topology increments by reiteration of units of morphogenesis, the geometry follows a functional design pattern.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for open angle glaucoma:A systematic review and economic evaluation

Objectives: To assess whether open angle glaucoma (OAG) screening meets the UK National Screening Committee criteria, to compare screening strategies with case finding, to estimate test parameters, to model estimates of cost and cost-effectiveness, and to identify areas for future research. Data sources: Major electronic databases were searched up to December 2005. Review methods: Screening strategies were developed by wide consultation. Markov submodels were developed to represent screening strategies. Parameter estimates were determined by systematic reviews of epidemiology, economic evaluations of screening, and effectiveness (test accuracy, screening and treatment). Tailored highly sensitive electronic searches were undertaken. Results: Most potential screening tests reviewed had an estimated specificity of 85% or higher. No test was clearly most accurate, with only a few, heterogeneous studies for each test. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of screening were identified. Based on two treatment RCTs, early treatment reduces the risk of progression. Extrapolating from this, and assuming accelerated progression with advancing disease severity, without treatment the mean time to blindness in at least one eye was approximately 23 years, compared to 35 years with treatment. Prevalence would have to be about 3-4% in 40 year olds with a screening interval of 10 years to approach cost-effectiveness. It is predicted that screening might be cost-effective in a 50-year-old cohort at a prevalence of 4% with a 10-year screening interval. General population screening at any age, thus, appears not to be cost-effective. Selective screening of groups with higher prevalence (family history, black ethnicity) might be worthwhile, although this would only cover 6% of the population. Extension to include other at-risk cohorts (e.g. myopia and diabetes) would include 37% of the general population, but the prevalence is then too low for screening to be considered cost-effective. Screening using a test with initial automated classification followed by assessment by a specialised optometrist, for test positives, was more cost-effective than initial specialised optometric assessment. The cost-effectiveness of the screening programme was highly sensitive to the perspective on costs (NHS or societal). In the base-case model, the NHS costs of visual impairment were estimated as £669. If annual societal costs were £8800, then screening might be considered cost-effective for a 40-year-old cohort with 1% OAG prevalence assuming a willingness to pay of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Of lesser importance were changes to estimates of attendance for sight tests, incidence of OAG, rate of progression and utility values for each stage of OAG severity. Cost-effectiveness was not particularly sensitive to the accuracy of screening tests within the ranges observed. However, a highly specific test is required to reduce large numbers of false-positive referrals. The findings that population screening is unlikely to be cost-effective are based on an economic model whose parameter estimates have considerable uncertainty, in particular, if rate of progression and/or costs of visual impairment are higher than estimated then screening could be cost-effective. Conclusions: While population screening is not cost-effective, the targeted screening of high-risk groups may be. Procedures for identifying those at risk, for quality assuring the programme, as well as adequate service provision for those screened positive would all be needed. Glaucoma detection can be improved by increasing attendance for eye examination, and improving the performance of current testing by either refining practice or adding in a technology-based first assessment, the latter being the more cost-effective option. This has implications for any future organisational changes in community eye-care services. Further research should aim to develop and provide quality data to populate the economic model, by conducting a feasibility study of interventions to improve detection, by obtaining further data on costs of blindness, risk of progression and health outcomes, and by conducting an RCT of interventions to improve the uptake of glaucoma testing. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

Parameter studies of fibre laser micro-welding of AISI 316L using Taguchi method

This paper discusses the application of the Taguchi experimental design approach in optimizing the key process parameters for micro-welding of thin AISI 316L foil using the 100W CW fibre laser. A L16 Taguchi experiment was conducted to systematically understand how the power, scanning velocity, focus position, gas flow rate and type of shielding gas affect the bead dimensions. The welds produced in the L16 Taguchi experiment was mainly of austenite cellular-dendrite structure with an average grain size of 5µm. An exact penetration weld with the largest penetration to fusion width ratio was obtained. Among those process parameters, the interaction between power and scanning velocity presented the strongest effect to the penetration to fusion width ratio and the power was found to be the predominantly important factor that drives the interaction with other factors to appreciably affect the bead dimensions.

Parameter study on laser welding of nitinol wire by Taguchi method

A L27 Taguchi experiment was done to investigate the effect of laser power, welding time, laser mode (CW and two pulsed modes), focus position, and their possible interactions on the weld-bead aspect ratio of laser-welded NiTi wires by using a 100W fibre laser. The optimized parameter setting to produce the full penetrated weldment with minimum welding defects is successfully determined in the Taguchi experiment. The laser mode is found to be the most important parameter that directly controls the weld-bead aspect ratio. The focus position is the secondly important parameter for the laser welding of NiTi wires. Strong interaction between the power and focus position is found in the Taguchi experiment. The optimized weldment produced by the Taguchi experiment is mainly of columnar dendritic structure in the weld zone (WZ) with the size of 1-3µm, while the HAZ exhibits equiaxed grain structure with the size of 5-10µm. The Vickers micro-hardness test indicted that the WZ and HAZ in the weldment are softened to certain extends after fibre laser welding.