The Diffusion of Risks in Public Private Partnership Contracts

Purpose The UK government argues that the benefits of public private partnership (PPP) in delivering public infrastructure stem from: transferring risks to the private sector within a structure in which financiers put their own capital at risk; and, the performance based payment mechanism, reinforced by the due diligence requirements imposed by the lenders financing the projects (HM Treasury, 2010). Prior studies of risk in PPPs have investigated ‘what’ risks are allocated and to ‘whom’, that is to the public or the private sector. The purpose of this study is to examine ‘how’ and ‘why’ PPP risks are diffused by their financiers. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on the financial structure of PPPs and on their financiers. Empirical evidence comes from interviews conducted with equity and debt financiers. Findings The findings show that the financial structure of the deals generates risk aversion in both debt and equity financiers and that the need to attract affordable finance leads to risk diffusion through a network of companies using various means that include contractual mitigation through insurance, performance support guarantees, interest rate swaps and inflation hedges. Because of the complexity this process generates, both procurers and suppliers need expensive expert advice. The risk aversion and diffusion and the consequent need for advice add cost to the projects impacting on the government’s economic argument for risk transfer. Limitations and implications The empirical work covers the private finance initiative (PFI) type of PPP arrangements and therefore the risk diffusion mechanisms may not be generalisable to other forms of PPP, especially those that do not involve the use of high leverage or private finance. Moreover, the scope of this research is limited to exploring the diffusion of risk in the private sector. Further research is needed on how risk is diffused in other settings and on the value for money implication of risk diffusion in PPP contracts. Originality/value The expectation inherent in PPP is that the private sector will better manage those risks allocated to it and because private capital is at risk, financiers will perform due diligence with the ultimate outcome that only viable projects will proceed. This paper presents empirical evidence that raises questions about these expectations. Key words: public private partnership, risk management, diffusion, private finance initiative, financiers

User behaviour, best practice and the risks of non-target exposure associated with anticoagulant rodenticide use

Usage of anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) is an integral component of modern agriculture and is essential for the control of commensal rodent populations. However, the extensive deployment of ARs has led to widespread exposure of a range of non-target predatory birds and mammals to some compounds, in particular the second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SCARS). As a result, there has been considerable effort placed into devising voluntary best practice guidelines that increase the efficacy of rodent control and reduce the risk of non-target exposure. Currently, there is limited published information on actual practice amongst users or implementation of best practice. We assessed the behaviour of a typical group of users using an on-farm questionnaire survey. Most baited for rodents every year using SGARs. Most respondents were apparently aware of the risks of non-target exposure and adhered to some of the best practice recommendations but total compliance was rare. Our questionnaire revealed that users of first generation anticoagulant rodenticides rarely protected or checked bait stations, and so took little effort to prevent primary exposure of non-targets. Users almost never searched for and removed poisoned carcasses and many baited for prolonged periods or permanently. These factors are all likely to enhance the likelihood of primary and secondary exposure of non-target species. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Coxiella buvnetii infection of an aortic graft with multiple vertebral body erosion

Q fever is caused by Coxiella burnetii and often has an insidious clinical presentation. We describe a rare case of Q fever infection of an aortic graft presenting with pyrexia and constant severe midlumbar pain due to erosion of multiple vertebral bodies. After successful treatment with graft resection and extra-anatomic vascular reconstruction, the patient continues on lifelong antibiotic therapy. We also present regional Q fever epidemiologic data together with a review of all previously documented cases of Q fever infections of vascular prostheses.

Stereotactic radiosurgery for arteriovenous malformations, Part 3: outcome predictors and risks after repeat radiosurgery:outcome predictors and risks after repeat radiosurgery

The object of this study was to evaluate the outcomes and risks of repeat stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for incompletely obliterated cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs).

Determining propeller induced erosion alongside quay walls in harbours using Artificial Neural Networks

In shallow waters, such as those found close to berth structures, the wash from a manoeuvring ship’s propeller can cause erosion of the seabed. This erosion can be increased if the wash intersects a berth structure. A number of researchers have undertaken model studies and used regression analysis to develop predictive relationships for the scouring action. This paper presents an experimental investigation with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN’s), used to analyse the results. The purpose of using ANN’s was to examine the prediction accuracy of the Networks in comparison with previous regression analysis methods. ANN’s were found to provide a more accurate method of predicting propeller wash scour than the equations presented by previous investigators.

Review: M. Everson and E. Vos (eds.), Uncertain Risks Regulated (Routledge-Cavendish, 2009)

Review of edited collection.

Visualising Textual Knowledge about Risks to Aid Risk Communication

This paper demonstrates a potential application for latent semantic analysis and similar techniques in visualising the differences between two levels of knowledge about a risk issue. The HIV/AIDS risk issue will be examined and the semantic clusters of key words in a technical corpora derived from specific literature about HIV/AIDS will be compared with the semantic clusters of those in more general corpora. It is hoped that these comparisons will create a fast and efficient complementary approach to the articulation of mental models of risk issues that could be used to target possible inconsistencies between expert and lay mental models.

The Value of Reducing Cancer Risks at Contaminated Sites: Are More Knowledgeable People Willing to Pay More?

We use conjoint choice questions to investigate people's tastes for cancer risk reductions and income in the context of public programs that would provide for remediation at abandoned industrial contaminated sites. Our survey was self-administered using the computer by persons living in the vicinity of an important contaminated site on the Italian National Priority List. The value of a prevented case of cancer is €2.6 million, but this figure does vary with income, perceived exposure to contaminants, and respondent opinions about priorities that should be pursued by cleanup programs. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

"New" and "Old" Social Risks: Life Cycle and Social Class Perspectives on Social Exclusion in Ireland

The life cycle concept has come to have considerable prominence in Irish social policy debate. However, this has occurred without any systematic effort to link its usage to the broader literature relating to the concept. Nor has there been any detailed consideration of how we should set about operationalising the concept. In this paper we argue the need for "macro" life cycle perspectives that have been influenced by recent challenges to the welfare state to be combined with "micro" perspectives focusing on the dynamic and multidimensional nature of social exclusion. We make use of Irish EU-SILC 2005 data in developing a life cycle schema and considering its relationship to a range of indicators of social exclusion. At the European level renewed interest in the life cycle concept is associated with the increasing emphasis on the distinction between "new" and "old" social risks and the notion that the former are more "individualised". Inequality and poverty rather than being differentially distributed between social classes are thought to vary between phases in the average work life. Our findings suggest the "death of social class" thesis is greatly overblown. A more accurate appreciation of the importance of new and old social risks requires that we systematically investigate the manner in which factors such as social class and the life cycle interact.

Arsenic in groundwater and its influence on exposure risks through traditionally cooked rice in Prey Vêng Province, Cambodia

Arsenic (As) contamination of communal tubewells in Prey Vêng, Cambodia, has been observed since 2000. Many of these wells exceed the WHO As in drinking water standard of 10 µg/L by a factor of 100. The aim of this study was to assess how cooking water source impacts dietary As intake in a rural community in Prey Vêng. This aim was fulfilled by (1) using geostatistical analysis techniques to examine the extent of As contaminated groundwater in Prey Vêng and identify a suitable study site, (2) conducting an on-site study in two villages to measure As content in cooked rice prepared with water collected from tubewells and locally harvested rainwater, and (3) determining the dietary intake of As from consuming this rice. Geostatistical analysis indicated that high risk tubewells (>50 µg As/L) are concentrated along the Mekong River's east bank. Participants using high risk tubewells are consuming up to 24 times more inorganic As daily than recommended by the previous FAO/WHO provisional tolerable daily intake value (2.1 µg/kgBW/day). However, As content in rice cooked in rainwater was significantly reduced, therefore, it is considered to be a safer and more sustainable option for this region.

Freshwater pearl mussels show plasticity of responses to different predation risks but also show consistent individual differences in responsiveness

Animals often show behavioural plasticity with respect to predation risk but also show behavioural syndromes in terms of consistency of responses to different stimuli. We examine these features in the freshwater pearl mussel. These bivalves often aggregate presumably to reduce predation risk to each individual. Predation risk, however, will be higher in the presence of predator cues. Here we use dimming light, vibration and touch as novel stimuli to examine the trade-off between motivation to feed and motivation to avoid predation. We present two experiments that each use three sequential novel stimuli to cause the mussels to close their valves and hence cease feeding. We find that mussels within a group showed shorter closure times than solitary mussels, consistent with decreased vulnerability to predation in group-living individuals. Mussels exposed to the odour of a predatory crayfish showed longer closures than control mussels, highlighting the predator assessment abilities of this species. However, individuals showed significant consistency in their closure responses across the trial series, in line with behavioural syndrome theory. Our results show that bivalves trade-off feeding and predator avoidance according to predation risk but the degree to which this is achieved is constrained by behavioural consistency. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Adolescents' educational outcomes in a social ecology of parenting, family, and community risks in Northern Ireland

This study examines the influence of social ecological risks within the domains of parenting, family environment, and community in the prediction of educational outcomes for 770 adolescents (49% boys, 51% girls, M = 13.6 years, SD = 2.0) living in a setting of protracted political conflict, specifically working class areas of Belfast, Northern Ireland. Controlling for religious community, age, and gender, youths' lower academic achievement was associated with family environments characterized by high conflict and low cohesion. School behaviour problems were related to greater exposure to community violence, or sectarian and nonsectarian antisocial behaviour. Youths' expectations about educational attainment were undermined by conflict in the family environment and antisocial behaviour in the community, as well as parenting low in warmth and behavioural control. Findings underscore the importance of considering family and community contributions to youths' educational outcomes. Suggestions regarding targeted interventions toward promoting resilience are discussed, such as assessing both child and family functioning, developing multidimensional interventions for parents, and building community partnerships, among others.