Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

The effect of melt viscosity on thermal efficiency for single screw extrusion of HDPE

In this work, a highly instrumented single screw extruder has been used to study the effect of polymer rheology on the thermal efficiency of the extrusion process. Three different molecular weight grades of high density polyethylene (HDPE) were extruded at a range of conditions. Three geometries of extruder screws were used at several set temperatures and screw rotation speeds. The extruder was equipped with real-time quantification of energy consumption; thermal dynamics of the process were examined using thermocouple grid sensors at the entrance to the die. Results showed that polymer rheology had a significant effect on process energy consumption and thermal homogeneity of the melt. Highest specific energy consumption and poorest homogeneity was observed for the highest viscosity grade of HDPE. Extruder screw geometry, set extrusion temperature and screw rotation speed were also found to have a direct effect on energy consumption and melt consistency. In particular, specific energy consumption was lower using a barrier flighted screw compared to single flighted screws at the same set conditions. These results highlight the complex nature of extrusion thermal dynamics and provide evidence that rheological properties of the polymer can significantly influence the thermal efficiency of the process.

An Evaluation of Vaneless Diffuser Modelling Methods as a Means of Improving the Off-Design Performance Prediction of Centrifugal Compressors

An evaluation of existing 1-D vaneless diffuser design tools in the context of improving the off-design performance prediction of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors is described. A combination of extensive gas stand test data and single passage CFD simulations have been employed in order to permit evaluation of the different methods, allowing conclusions about the relative benefits and deficiencies of each of the different approaches to be determined. The vaneless diffuser itself has been isolated from the incumbent limitations in the accuracy of 1-D impeller modelling tools through development of a method to fully specify impeller exit conditions (in terms of mean quantities) using only standard test stand data with additional interstage static pressure measurements at the entrance to the diffuser. This method allowed a direct comparison between the test data and 1-D methods through sharing common inputs, thus achieving the aim of diffuser isolation.

Crucial to the accuracy of determining the performance of each of the vaneless diffuser configurations was the ability to quantify the presence and extent of the spanwise aerodynamic blockage present at the diffuser inlet section. A method to evaluate this critical parameter using CFD data is described herein, along with a correlation for blockage related to a new diffuser inlet flow parameter ⚡, equal to the quotient of the local flow coefficient and impeller tip speed Mach number. The resulting correlation permitted the variation of blockage with operating condition to be captured.

Variations in the Processing of DNA Double-Strand Breaks Along 60-MeV Therapeutic Proton Beams

PURPOSE: To investigate the variations in induction and repair of DNA damage along the proton path, after a previous report on the increasing biological effectiveness along clinically modulated 60-MeV proton beams.

METHODS AND MATERIALS: Human skin fibroblast (AG01522) cells were irradiated along a monoenergetic and a modulated spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) proton beam used for treating ocular melanoma at the Douglas Cyclotron, Clatterbridge Centre for Oncology, Wirral, Liverpool, United Kingdom. The DNA damage response was studied using the 53BP1 foci formation assay. The linear energy transfer (LET) dependence was studied by irradiating the cells at depths corresponding to entrance, proximal, middle, and distal positions of SOBP and the entrance and peak position for the pristine beam.

RESULTS: A significant amount of persistent foci was observed at the distal end of the SOBP, suggesting complex residual DNA double-strand break damage induction corresponding to the highest LET values achievable by modulated proton beams. Unlike the directly irradiated, medium-sharing bystander cells did not show any significant increase in residual foci.

CONCLUSIONS: The DNA damage response along the proton beam path was similar to the response of X rays, confirming the low-LET quality of the proton exposure. However, at the distal end of SOBP our data indicate an increased complexity of DNA lesions and slower repair kinetics. A lack of significant induction of 53BP1 foci in the bystander cells suggests a minor role of cell signaling for DNA damage under these conditions.

Behavioural and physiological responses of shelter dogs to long-term confinement

In Italy, National Law (281/1991) prohibits euthanasia of shelter dogs if they are not dangerous or suffering seriously. Adoption rates in rescue shelters are often lower than entrance rates, leading inevitably to overcrowded facilities where animals are likely to spend the rest of their lives in kennels. In this situation, housing conditions (i.e. space provided, environmental, and social stimulation) may have an impact on canine welfare. In this research project, the effects of two different forms of housing (group- and pair housing) on long-term shelter dogs were compared using behavioural and physiological parameters. Observational data and saliva samples were collected from dogs exposed to both experimental settings; behaviour and cortisol concentration levels were used as welfare indicators. Pair housing offered fewer social and environmental stimuli and behavioural analysis showed a significant decrease in locomotor, exploratory, and social behaviour. Cortisol levels show that this parameter varied independently of housing conditions. Although this study found no evidence suggesting that one form of confinement reduced animal welfare more than the other (e.g. in terms of abnormal behaviour, or higher cortisol concentrations), the type of confinement did affect the expression of a variety of behaviours and these variations should not be ignored with respect to housing decisions for long-term shelter dogs.