Modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost at the concept stage

The work presented is concerned with the estimation of manufacturing cost at the concept design stage, when little technical information is readily available. The work focuses on the nose cowl sections of a wide range of engine nacelles built at Bombardier Aerospace Shorts of Belfast. A core methodology is presented that: defines manufacturing cost elements that are prominent; utilises technical parameters that are highly influential in generating those costs; establishes the linkage between these two; and builds the associated cost estimating relations into models. The methodology is readily adapted to deal with both the early and more mature conceptual design phases, which thereby highlights the generic, flexible and fundamental nature of the method. The early concept cost model simplifies cost as a cumulative element that can be estimated using higher level complexity ratings, while the mature concept cost model breaks manufacturing cost down into a number of constituents that are each driven by their own specific drivers. Both methodologies have an average error of less that ten percent when correlated with actual findings, thus achieving an acceptable level of accuracy. By way of validity and application, the research is firmly based on industrial case studies and practice and addresses the integration of design and manufacture through cost. The main contribution of the paper is the cost modelling methodology. The elemental modelling of the cost breakdown structure through materials, part fabrication, assembly and their associated drivers is relevant to the analytical design procedure, as it utilises design definition and complexity that is understood by engineers.

Chronic child abuse: The characteristics and careers of children caught in the child protection system

The introduction of the Quality Protects initiative in England and the focus on performance management has challenged social services departments to examine the systems, processes and outcomes for children who have their name on a child protection register. Research indicates that approximately one-quarter of the situations in which children are registered could be described as chronic—that is, they remain on the child protection register for significant periods of time, experience more than one period of registration or suffer a further incident of significant harm whilst subject to a child protection plan. In this article, the findings from a research study conducted into this group of vulnerable children are reported, focusing on the characteristics of the children and their families, and their careers in the child protection system. The paper concludes with observations about the weak conceptualization of performance management and the need to recognize the complexity of the factors that influence children’s careers in the child protection system.