Quantifying the Energy & carbon emissions implications of a 10% electric vehicles target

EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy requires each Member State to ensure 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) comes from renewable sources by 2020 (10% RES-T target). In addition to the anticipated growth in biofuels, this target is expected to be met by the increased electrification of transport coupled with a growing contribution from renewable energy to electricity generation. Energy use in transport accounted for nearly half of Ireland’s total final energy demand and about a third of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2007. Energy use in transport has grown by 6.3% per annum on average in the period 1990 – 2007. This high share and fast growth relative to other countries highlights the challenges Ireland faces in meeting ambitious renewable energy targets. The Irish Government has set a specific target for Electric Vehicles (EV) as part of its strategy to deliver the 10% RES-T target. By 2020, 10% of all vehicles in its transport fleet are to be powered by electricity. This paper quantifies the impacts on energy and carbon dioxide emissions of this 10% EV target by 2020. In order to do this an ‘EV Car Stock’ model was developed to analyse the historical and future make-up of the passenger car portion of the fleet to 2025. Three scenarios for possible take-up in EVs were examined and the associated energy and emissions impacts are quantified. These impacts are then compared to Ireland’s 10% RES-T target and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2020. Two key findings of the study are that the 10% EV target contributes 1.7% to the 10% RES-T target by 2020 and 1.4% to the 20% reduction in Non-ETS emissions by 2020 relative to 2005.

Trading Energy ETFs with an Improved Moving Average Strategy

In this paper we employ the recently introduced improved moving average methodology of Papailias and Thomakos (2011) and we apply it in two energy ETFs. We compare it to the standard moving average methodology and the buy and hold strategy. Investors who are interested in energy-related sectors and trade using averages, could benefit by forming their strategies based on this improved moving average methodology as it returns higher profits accompanied by decreased risk (measured in terms of drawdown).

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Food miles or carbon emissions? Exploring labeling preference for food transport footprint with a stated choice study

The ecological footprint of food transport can be communicated using carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 label) or by providing information about both the length of time and the mileage travelled (food miles label). We use stated choice data to estimate conventional unobserved taste heterogeneity models and extend them to a specification that also addresses attribute nonattendance. The implied posterior distributions of the marginal willingness to pay values are compared graphically and are used in validation regressions. We find strong bimodality of taste distribution as the emerging feature, with different groups of subjects having low and high valuations for these labels. The best fitting model shows that CO2 and food miles valuations are much correlated. CO2 valuations can be high even for those respondents expressing low valuations for food miles. However, the reverse is not true. Taken together, the results suggest that consumers tend to value the CO2 label at least as much and sometimes more than the food miles label.

Momentum Trading in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Energy Stocks

This paper investigates whether the momentum effect exists in the NYSE energy sector. Momentum is defined as the strategy that buys (sells) these stocks that are best (worst) performers, over a pre-specified past period of time (the 'look-back' period), by constructing equally weighted portfolios. Different momentum strategies are obtained by changing the number of stocks included in these portfolios, as well as the look-back period. Next, their performance is compared against two benchmarks: the equally weighted portfolio consisting of most stocks in the NYSE energy index and the market portfolio, and the S&P500 index. The results indicate that the momentum effect is strongly present in the energy sector, and leads to highly profitable portfolios, improving the risk-reward measures and easily outperforming both benchmarks.

Trading Activity in Options and Stock Around Price-Sensitive News Announcements

This study investigates the trading activity in options and stock markets around informed events with extreme daily stock price movements. We find that informed agents are more likely to trade options prior to negative news and stocks ahead of positive news. We also show that optioned stocks overreact to the arrival of negative news, but react efficiently to positive news. However, the overreaction patterns are unique to the subsample of stocks with the lowest pre-event abnormal option/stock volume ratio (O/S). This finding suggests that the incremental benefit of option listing is related to the level of option trading activity, over and beyond the presence of an options market on the firm's stock. Finally, we find that the pre-event abnormal O/S is a better predictor of stock price patterns following a negative shock than is the pre-event O/S, implying that the former may contain more information about the future value of stocks than the latter.