Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Deforestation and apparent extinctions of endemic forest beetles in Madagascar

Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forest dwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002–2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species–area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.

The death of massive stars - I. Observational constraints on the progenitors of Type II-P supernovae

We present the results of a 10.5-yr, volume-limited (28-Mpc) search for supernova (SN) progenitor stars. In doing so we compile all SNe discovered within this volume (132, of which 27 per cent are Type Ia) and determine the relative rates of each subtype from literature studies. The core-collapse SNe break down into 59 per cent II-P and 29 per cent Ib/c, with the remainder being IIb (5 per cent), IIn (4 per cent) and II-L (3 per cent). There have been 20 II-P SNe with high-quality optical or near-infrared pre-explosion images that allow a meaningful search for the progenitor stars. In five cases they are clearly red supergiants, one case is unconstrained, two fall on compact coeval star clusters and the other twelve have no progenitor detected. We review and update all the available data for the host galaxies and SN environments (distance, metallicity and extinction) and determine masses and upper mass estimates for these 20 progenitor stars using the STARS stellar evolutionary code and a single consistent homogeneous method. A maximum likelihood calculation suggests that the minimum stellar mass for a Type II-P to form is m(min) = 8.5(-1.5)(+1) M-circle dot and the maximum mass for II-P progenitors is m(max) = 16.5 +/- 1.5 M-circle dot, assuming a Salpeter initial mass function holds for the progenitor population (in the range Gamma = -1.35(-0.7)(+0.3)). The minimum mass is consistent with current estimates for the upper limit to white dwarf progenitor masses, but the maximum mass does not appear consistent with massive star populations in Local Group galaxies. Red supergiants in the Local Group have masses up to 25 M-circle dot and the minimum mass to produce a Wolf-Rayet star in single star evolution (between solar and LMC metallicity) is similarly 25-30 M-circle dot. The reason we have not detected any high-mass red supergiant progenitors above 17 M-circle dot is unclear, but we estimate that it is statistically significant at 2.4 sigma confidence. Two simple reasons for this could be that we have systematically underestimated the progenitor masses due to dust extinction or that stars between 17-25 M-circle dot produce other kinds of SNe which are not II-P. We discuss these possibilities and find that neither provides a satisfactory solution. We term this discrepancy the 'red supergiant problem' and speculate that these stars could have core masses high enough to form black holes and SNe which are too faint to have been detected. We compare the Ni-56 masses ejected in the SNe to the progenitor mass estimates and find that low-luminosity SNe with low Ni-56 production are most likely to arise from explosions of low-mass progenitors near the mass threshold that can produce a core-collapse.

Palaeobiology of an extinct Ice Age mammal: Stable isotope and cementum analysis of giant deer teeth

The extinct giant deer, Megaloceros giganteus, is among the largest and most famous of the cervids. Megaloceros remains have been uncovered across Europe and western Asia. but the highest concentrations come from Irish bogs and caves Although Megaloceros has enjoyed a great deal of attention over the centuries, paleobiological study has focused oil morphometric and distributional work until now. This paper presents quantitative data that have implications for understanding its sudden extirpation in western Europe during a period of global climate change approximately 10.600 C-14 years ago (ca 12,500 calendar years BP). We report here the first stable isotope analysis of giant deer teeth. which we combine with dental cementum accretion in order to document age, diet and life-history seasonality from birth until death Enamel delta C-13 and delta O-18 measured in the second and third molars from seven individual giant deer Suggest a grass and forbbased diet supplemented with browse in a deteriorating. possibly water-stressed, environment, and a season of birth around spring/early summer Cementurm data indicate that the ages of the specimens ranged from 6.5 to 14 years and that they possessed mature antlers by autumn, similar to extant cervids. In addition. the possibility for combining these two techniques in future mammalian paleoccological studies is considered. The data presented in this study imply that Megoloceros would have indeed been vulnerable to extirpation during the terminal Pleistocene in Ireland. and this information is relevant to understanding the broader pattern of its extinction.

An explanatory model for food-web structure and evolution

Food webs are networks describing who is eating whom in an ecological community. By now it is clear that many aspects of food-web structure are reproducible across diverse habitats, yet little is known about the driving force behind this structure. Evolutionary and population dynamical mechanisms have been considered. We propose a model for the evolutionary dynamics of food-web topology and show that it accurately reproduces observed food-web characteristics in the steady state. It is based on the observation that most consumers are larger than their resource species and the hypothesis that speciation and extinction rates decrease with increasing body mass. Results give strong support to the evolutionary hypothesis. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optical transmission properties and electric field distribution of interacting 2D silver nanorod Arrays

Silver nanorods have been grown by electrodeposition into thin film porous alumina templates (AAO). Optical transmission measurements using p-polarized incident white light shows clear plasmon resonance extinction peaks. We successfully model the dependence on angle in incidence of extinction peak height and position using a multiple-multipoles (MMP) approach with the different spectral features being clearly associated with the effective electric field distribution and coupling between individual nanorods.

Modelling distributional trends to inform conservation strategies for endangered species

Aim: Species loss has increased significantly over the last 1000 years and is ultimately attributed to the direct and indirect consequences of increased human population growth across the planet. A growing number of species are becoming endangered and require human intervention to prevent their local extirpation or complete extinction. Management strategies aimed at mitigating a species loss can benefit greatly from empirical approaches that indicate the rate of decline of a species providing objective information on the need for immediate conservation actions, e.g. captive breeding; however, this is rarely employed. The current study used a novel method to examine the distributional trends of a model endangered species, the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.).
Location: United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.
Methods: Using species presence data within 10-km grid squares since records began three-parameter logistic regression curves were fitted to extrapolate an estimated date of regional extinction.
Results: This study has shown that freshwater pearl mussel distribution has contracted since known historical records and outlier populations were lost first. Within the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, distribution loss has been greatest in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England, respectively, with the Republic of Ireland containing the highest relative proportion of M. margaritifera distribution, in 1998.
Main conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence that this species could become extinct throughout countries within the United Kingdom within 170 years under the current trends and emphasizes that regionally specific management strategies need to be implemented to prevent extirpation of this species.

ESC observations of SN 2005cf - I. Photometric evolution of a normal Type Ia supernova

We present early-time optical and near-infrared photometry of supernova (SN) 2005cf. The observations, spanning a period from about 12 d before to 3 months after maximum, have been obtained through the coordination of observational efforts of various nodes of the European Supernova Collaboration and including data obtained at the 2-m Himalayan Chandra Telescope. From the observed light curve we deduce that SN 2005cf is a fairly typical SN Ia with a post-maximum decline [Delta m(15)(B)(true) = 1.12] close to the average value and a normal luminosity of M-B,M-max = -19.39 +/- 0.33. Models of the bolometric light curve suggest a synthesized Ni-56 mass of about 0.7 M-circle dot. The negligible host galaxy interstellar extinction and its proximity make SN 2005cf a good Type Ia SN template.

Assessing the conservation status of the freshwater pearl mussel in the North of Ireland - Relevance of growth and age characteristics

In order to conserve the freshwater pearl mussel in Ireland, populations that have a high risk of extinction must he identified and given priority for conservation. Growth of freshwater pearl mussels has been found to vary among populations on a wide geographic scale as well as on a local scale. Populations having a high growth constant (k), because of the small size of individuals and their shorter life-span and thus lower reproductive output, may be more likely to become extinct than those which have a low k and hence larger size and greater reproductive output. This study attempts to estimate the growth constant (k) in rivers in Donegal and Northern Ireland based on measuring lire largest shell in each population. Large differences in values of k were found among rivers and these are discussed in relation to catchment bedrock types and the identification of conservation priorities. Appropriate conservation strategies are recommended for Margaritifera margaritifera populations in the north of Ireland.

Towards a strategy for the conservation of the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera in County Donegal, Ireland

This study attempts to identify the habitat requirements of the pearl mussel Margaritifea margaritifera in County Donegal, in north west Ireland, an area with little urban, industrial or intensive agricultural development. No mussels occur in rivers where calcium and conductivity levels are high or where the substratum is predominantly bedrock or fine sediment but it was not possible to distinguish clearly between mussel and non-mussel sites on the basis of ordination analysis. However, rivers which still support mussels and rivers with historical records of mussels are loosely grouped. Rivers which formerly supported mussels but lack living M. margaritifera appear to have suitable habitat for mussels; pearl fishing is the most likely reason for the extinction of these mussel populations. Where population densities are high, for example in locations on the rivers Eske, Clady and Owenea, conservation may necessitate the establishment of reserves. The prospect for the successful reintroduction of mussels into former mussel rivers such as the Finn and Eany Water, where suitable habitat exists and water quality is high, is very good.

‘Marxism and Ecology: From Political Economy to Political Ecology’

One of the reasons for the 'fin de seicle' angst within western liberal capitalist societies is the rise in prominance of ecological concerns within these societies. Long before the New Right declared the post-war welfare state to be untenable, early green critics had claimed it to be ecologically unsustainable. The addiction of the welfare state on ever increasing levels of economic growth was pronounced to be simply impossible within the context of a finite planet. Although it was not expressed in this manner, what these early ecological concerns with Limits to Growth were in effect saying was that the accumulation of capital rendered capitalism unsustainable. Yet the ecological critique of capitalism has not found much favour within the Marxist critique untile recently. Early Marxist analyses of the ecology movement dismissed them as ‘petty bourgeios radicals’ while many greens still view Marxism as ‘fair shares in extinction’. The lack of positive engagement and dialogue between Marxism and ecology has in recent years been put right with a discernable overlap between the two critiques of capitalism. This article seeks to present the areas of disagreement and agreement between the two and seeks to provide an ‘environmental audit’ on both the Marxist method and political project.

Manipulating Interaction Strengths and the Consequences for Trivariate Patterns in a Marine Food Web

We are experiencing a global extinction crisis as a result of climate change and human-induced alteration of natural habitats, with large predators at high trophic levels in food webs being particularly vulnerable. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of food web data that can be used to assess how species extinctions alter the structure and stability of temporally and spatially replicated networks. We established a series of large experimental mesocosms in a shallow subtidal benthic marine system and constructed food webs for each replicate. After 6 months of community assembly, we removed large predators from the core communities of 20 experimental food webs, based on the strength of their trophic interactions, and monitored the changes in the networks' structure and stability over an 8-month period. Our analyses revealed the importance of allometric relationships and size-structuring in natural communities as a means of preserving food web structure and sustainability, despite significant changes in the diversity, stability and productivity of the system.

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

Perturbations to trophic interactions and the stability of complex food webs

The pattern of predator-prey interactions is thought to be a key determinant of ecosystem processes and stability. Complex ecological networks are characterized by distributions of interaction strengths that are highly skewed, with many weak and few strong interactors present. Theory suggests that this pattern promotes stability as weak interactors dampen the destabilizing potential of strong interactors. Here, we present an experimental test of this hypothesis and provide empirical evidence that the loss of weak interactors can destabilize communities in nature. We ranked 10 marine consumer species by the strength of their trophic interactions. We removed the strongest and weakest of these interactors from experimental food webs containing >100 species. Extinction of strong interactors produced a dramatic trophic cascade and reduced the temporal stability of key ecosystem process rates, community diversity and resistance to changes in community composition. Loss of weak interactors also proved damaging for our experimental ecosystems, leading to reductions in the temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem process rates, community diversity, and resistance. These results highlight the importance of conserving species to maintain the stabilizing pattern of trophic interactions in nature, even if they are perceived to have weak effects in the system.

A STUDY OF CARBON-MONOXIDE AND NEUTRAL CARBON IN THE S106 MOLECULAR CORE

Maps are presented of J=2-1 and J=3-2 (CO)-O-18 emission from the molecular environment of the bipolar nebula S106, together with complementary observations of the P-3(1)-P-3(0), C I emission. Line splitting observed extensively over the E molecular cloud suggests that it is best explained as the expanding remnant of a thick toroid surrounding the optical lobes. The poor correlation between the observed molecular line emission and dust continuum emission in the E cloud is probably due to a large temperature gradient. Strong C I emission from the protostellar candidate S106 FIR suggests the nearby presence of a powerful source of far-UV radiation, whose energy supply is unlikely to arise from gravitational contraction of a protostar. It is probable that this source is the star S106 LR, which also heats S106 FIR. There is evidence, in both C I and (CO)-O-18, for a predominantly blueshifted outflow from S106 IR, best interpreted as a stellar wind-driven shock into the toroidal remnant. (CO)-O-18 and (CO)-C-13 appear to be depleted, relative to canonical values for their abundances, in S106 FIR, despite its high optical extinction, which should discourage selective photodissociation. Elsewhere in the cloud the C I line profiles show a resemblance to those of (CO)-O-18, with intensity equivalent to a few photodissociation regions (PDRs) along the line of sight.