Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Micro-arthropod communities under human disturbance: is taxonomic aggregation a valuable tool for detecting multivariate change? Evidence from Mediterranean soil oribatid coenoses

Animal communities are sensitive to environmental disturbance, and several multivariate methods have recently been developed to detect changes in community structure. The complex taxonomy of soil invertebrates constrains the use of the community level in monitoring environmental changes, since species identification requires expertise and time. However, recent literature data on marine communities indicate that little multivariate information is lost in the taxonomic aggregation of species data to high rank taxa. In the present paper, this hypothesis was tested on two oribatid mite (oribatida, Acari) assemblages under two different kinds of disturbance: metal pollution and fires. Results indicate that data sets built at the genus and family systematic rank can detect the effects of disturbance with little loss of information. This is an encouraging result in view of the use of the community level as a preliminary tool for describing patterns of human-disturbed soil ecosystems. (c) 2006 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

A school based study of psychological disturbance in children following the Omagh bomb

Objective
To assess the extent and nature of psychiatric morbidity among children (aged 8 to 13 years) 15 months after a car bomb explosion in the town of Omagh, Northern Ireland.

Method
A survey was conducted of 1945 school children attending 13 schools in the Omagh district. Questionnaires included demographic details, measures of exposure, the Horowitz Impact of Events Scale, the Birleson Self-Rating Depression Scale, and the Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale.

Results
Children directly exposed to the bomb reported higher levels of probable PTSD (70%), and psychological distress than those not exposed. Direct exposure was more closely associated with an increase in PTSD symptoms than in general psychiatric distress. Significant predictors of increased IES scores included being male, witnessing people injured and reporting a perceived life threat but when co-morbid anxiety and depression are included as potential predictors anxiety remains the only significant predictor of PTSD scores.

Conclusions
School-based studies are a potentially valuable means of screening and assessing for PTSD in children after large-scale tragedies. Assessment should consider type of exposure, perceived life threat and other co-morbid anxiety as risk factors for PTSD.

Amplitude modulated signal transmission through a phase conjugating lens

Free space transmission of an on-off modulated sinusoidal signal through a phase conjugating lens (PCL) is theoretically examined using a combined time/frequency domain approach. The on-off keyed (OOK) signal is generated by a dipole antenna located in the far-field zone of the lens. The PCL consists of a dual layer of antenna elements interconnected via phase conjugating circuitry. We demonstrate that electromagnetic interference between antenna elements creates spatially localised areas of good-quality reception and zones where the signal is significantly denigrated by interference. Next, it is shown that destructive interference and packet desynchronisation effects critically depend on bit rate. It is also shown that a circular concave lens can be used to produce high-quality signal reception in a given direction while suppressing signal reception in all other directions. The effect that the bandwidth of the phase conjugating unit has on the transmitted signal properties for the cases of high and low bit rate OOK modulation are studied and a signal quality characterisation scheme is proposed which uses cross-correlation. The results of the study yields understanding of the performance of phase conjugating arrays under OOK modulation. The work suggests a novel approach for realising a secure communication wireless system.

You have free access to this content 5.8 GHz full duplex amplitude shift keying retrodirective interrogator array

This article describes a practical demonstration of a complete full-duplex “amplitude shift keying (ASK)” retrodirective radio frequency identification (RFID) transceiver array.The interrogator incorporates a “retrodirective array (RDA)” with a dual-conversion phase conjugating architecture in order to achieve better performance than is possible with conventional RFID solutions. Here mixers phase conjugate the incoming signal and a carrier recovery circuit recovers incoming angle of arrival phase information of an encoded amplitude shift keyed signal. The resulting interrogator provides a receiver sensitivity level of -109 dBm. A four element square patch RDA gives a 3 dB automatic beam steering angle of acceptance of ±45°. When compared to an RFID system operating by conventional (non-retrodirective) means retrodirective action leads to improved range extension of up to 16 times at ±45°. Operator pointing accuracy requirements are also reduced due to automatic retrodirective self-pointing. These features significantly enhance deployment opportunities requiring long range low equivalent isotropic radiation power (EIRP) and/or RFID tagging of moving platforms. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 55:160–164, 2013; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.27258

Physiotherapy for Sleep Disturbance in People With Chronic Low Back Pain:Results of a Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective: To determine the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial investigating the effectiveness of physiotherapy for sleep disturbance in chronic low back pain (CLBP) (=12wks). Design: Randomized controlled trial with evaluations at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. Setting: Outpatient physiotherapy department in an academic teaching hospital. Participants: Participants with CLBP were randomly assigned to a walking program (n=20; mean age ± SD, 46.4±13.8y), supervised exercise class (n=20; mean age ± SD, 41.3±11.9y), or usual physiotherapy (n=20; mean age ± SD, 47.1±14.3y). The 3-month evaluation was completed by 44 participants (73%), and 42 (70%) participants completed the 6-month evaluation. Interventions: Participants received a physiotherapy-delivered 8-week walking program, an 8-week group supervised exercise class (1 class/wk), or 1-to-1 usual physiotherapy (advice, manual therapy, and exercise). Main Outcome Measures: Sleep was assessed by the self-reported Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Pittsburgh Sleep Diary, and objective actigraphy. Results: Groups were comparable at baseline. Most (95%, n=57) of the participants had sleep disturbance. The acceptability of actigraphy was excellent at baseline (58 of 60 participants), but dropped at 3 months (26 of 44 participants). There were improvements on the PSQI and ISI in all groups at 3 and 6 months, with predominantly medium effect sizes (Cohen d=0.2-0.5). Conclusions: The high prevalence of sleep disturbance indicated the feasibility of good recruitment in future trials. The PSQI would be a suitable screening tool and outcome measure alongside an objective nonobtrusive sleep outcome measure. The effectiveness of physiotherapy for sleep disturbance in CLBP warrants investigation in a fully powered randomized controlled trial. © 2013 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine.

Voltage Dip Benchmarking in Power Quality and Disturbance Monitoring

This paper examines power quality benchmarks in the electricity supply industry (ESI) and impact of standards for the reduction of voltage dip incidents. The paper considers adherence to particular standards and is supported by several case studies from incidents where voltage dips have been detected and assessed by the power systems division of Scottish Power and where improvements have been implemented to help militate against subsequent incidents.

Habitat Isolation Reduces the Temporal Stability of Island Ecosystems in the Face of Flood Disturbance

Natural ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, including land-use change, deforestation, agricultural intensification, and urbanisation, all of which have led to widespread habitat fragmentation, which is also likely to be amplified further by predicted climate change. The potential interactive effects of these different stressors cannot be determined by studying each in isolation, although such synergies have been largely ignored in ecological field studies to date. Here, we use a model system of naturally fragmented islands in a braided river network, which is exposed to periodic inundation, to investigate the interactive effects of habitat isolation and flood disturbance. Food web structure was similar across the islands during periods of hydrological stability, but several key properties were altered in the aftermath of flood disturbance, based on distance of the islands from the regional source pool of species: taxon richness and mean food chain length declined with habitat isolation after flooding, while the proportion of basal species increased. Greater species turnover through time reflected the slower process of re-colonisation on the more distant islands following disturbance. Increased variability of several food web properties over a 1-year period highlighted the reduced temporal stability of isolated habitat fragments. Many of these effects reflected the differential successes of predator and prey species at re-colonising the islands: even though larger, more mobile consumers may reach the more distant islands first, they cannot establish populations until the lower trophic levels have successfully reassembled. These results highlight the susceptibility of fragmented ecosystems to environmental perturbations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Disturbance, neutral theory and patterns of beta diversity in soil communities

Beta diversity describes how local communities within an area or region differ in species composition/abundance. There have been attempts to use changes in beta diversity as a biotic indicator of disturbance, but lack of theory and methodological caveats have hampered progress. We here propose that the neutral theory of biodiversity plus the definition of beta diversity as the total variance of a community matrix provide a suitable, novel, starting point for ecological applications. Observed levels of beta diversity (BD) can be compared to neutral predictions with three possible outcomes: Observed BD equals neutral prediction or is larger (divergence) or smaller (convergence) than the neutral prediction. Disturbance might lead to either divergence or convergence, depending on type and strength. We here apply these ideas to datasets collected on oribatid mites (a key, very diverse soil taxon) under several regimes of disturbances. When disturbance is expected to increase the heterogeneity of soil spatial properties or the sampling strategy encompassed a range of diverging environmental conditions, we observed diverging assemblages. On the contrary, we observed patterns consistent with neutrality when disturbance could determine homogenization of soil properties in space or the sampling strategy encompassed fairly homogeneous areas. With our method, spatial and temporal changes in beta diversity can be directly and easily monitored to detect significant changes in community dynamics, although the method itself cannot inform on underlying mechanisms. However, human-driven disturbances and the spatial scales at which they operate are usually known. In this case, our approach allows the formulation of testable predictions in terms of expected changes in beta diversity, thereby offering a promising monitoring tool.

Vulnerability and robustness of SME supply chains: An empirical study of risk and disturbance management of fresh food processors in a developing market

The aim of this paper is to analyse vulnerability and robustness of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) supply chains and to consider contextual factors that might influence the success of their disturbance management: Risky product and business environment. By using an exploratory case study it is shown how these contextual factors attribute vulnerability sources, contribute to the robustness of a company’s performance and supply chain vulnerability, as well as how a company seeks to manage internal and external vulnerability sources. The exploratory case is based on a fresh food supply chain of a manufacturing SME operating in a developing market.
Case findings suggest that fresh food supply chains of a manufacturing SME in developing markets are prone to disruptions of their logistics and production processes due to ‘riskiness’ of fresh food products, the ‘riskiness’ of developing markets, as well as ‘riskiness’ of SMEs themselves. However, this does not necessarily indicate the vulnerability of an SME and its entire supply chain. Findings indicate that SMEs can be very successful in disturbance management by selective use of redesign strategies that aim to prevent or reduce the impact of disturbances. More precise, it is likely that an SME can achieve robust performance by employing preventive redesign strategies in managing disturbances that result from internal, company related vulnerability sources, while impact reduction strategies are likely to contribute to robust performance of an SME if used to manage disturbances that result from internal, supply chain related vulnerability sources, as well as external vulnerability sources.

Amplitude modulation of quantum-ion-acoustic wavepackets in electron-positron-ion plasmas: Modulational instability, envelope modes, extreme waves

A semirelativistic fluid model is employed to describe the nonlinear amplitude modulation of low-frequency (ionic scale) electrostatic waves in an unmagnetized electron-positron-ion plasma. Electrons and positrons are assumed to be degenerated and inertialess, whereas ions are warm and classical. A multiscale perturbation method is used to derive a nonlinear Schrödinger equation for the envelope amplitude, based on which the occurrence of modulational instability is investigated in detail. Various types of localized ion acoustic excitations are shown to exist, in the form of either bright type envelope solitons (envelope pulses) or dark-type envelope solitons (voids, holes). The plasma configurational parameters (namely, the relativistic degeneracy parameter, the positron concentration, and the ionic temperature) are shown to affect the conditions for modulational instability significantly, in fact modifying the associated threshold as well as the instability growth rate. In particular, the relativistic degeneracy parameter leads to an enhancement of the modulational instability mechanism. Furthermore, the effect of different relevant plasma parameters on the characteristics (amplitude, width) of these envelope solitary structures is also presented in detail. Finally, the occurrence of extreme amplitude excitation (rogue waves) is also discussed briefly. Our results aim at elucidating the formation and dynamics of nonlinear electrostatic excitations in superdense astrophysical regimes.

An approach to determine the local boundary of small disturbance voltage stability region in a cut-set power space:基于微扰的割集电压稳定域局部边界求解方法

A new approach to determine the local boundary of voltage stability region in a cut-set power space (CVSR) is presented. Power flow tracing is first used to determine the generator-load pair most sensitive to each branch in the interface. The generator-load pairs are then used to realize accurate small disturbances by controlling the branch power flow in increasing and decreasing directions to obtain new equilibrium points around the initial equilibrium point. And, continuous power flow is used starting from such new points to get the corresponding critical points around the initial critical point on the CVSR boundary. Then a hyperplane cross the initial critical point can be calculated by solving a set of linear algebraic equations. Finally, the presented method is validated by some systems, including New England 39-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system, and EPRI-1000 bus system. It can be revealed that the method is computationally more efficient and has less approximation error. It provides a useful approach for power system online voltage stability monitoring and assessment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50707019), Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2009CB219701), Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China (No. 200439), Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Development Program (No. 09JCZDJC25000), National Major Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs of China During the 11th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2006BAJ03A06). ©2009 State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Press.

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km²; 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

Application of disturbance management principles in fresh food supply chains

The desire for more robust supply chains has led to a growth in theoretical and practical interest in the application of both preventive and impact reductive disturbance management principles. This application should ultimately lead to less vulnerable and more competitive supply chains. Based on the extant literature we identify fresh food supply chain's contextual factors (products, processes, supply chain networks and supply chain business environment) and their corresponding characteristics, as well as the main disturbance management principles used. To analyse their influence on the selection and application of disturbance management principles in fresh food supply chains we conducted three case studies. In each case we collected data on the relevant contextual factors, disturbance management principles applied and company background. As an underlying methodology, we first conduct within-case analysis and then expand the analyses to a cross-case context. Based on the findings from these case studies, propositions are built concerning the nature of contextual factors and their characteristics, and their influence on the selection and application of disturbance management principles in fresh food supply chains. Our main findings are related to the identification of contextual characteristics of fresh food supply chains that are either critical vulnerability sources, critical enablers or conditionals and as such require, facilitate or condition selection and application of disturbance management principles.

Millimeter Wave Amplitude Comparison Monopulse Using a Waveguide Rotman Lens

A 94 GHz waveguide Rotman lens is described which can be used to implement an amplitude comparison monopulse RADAR. In transmit mode, adjacent dual beam ports are excited with equal amplitude and phase to form a sum radiation pattern, and in receive mode, the outputs of the beam port pairs are combined using magic tees to provide a sum and a difference signal which can be used to calculate an angular error estimate for target acquisition and tracking. This approach provides an amplitude comparison monopulse system which can be scanned in azimuth and which has a low component count, with no requirement for phase shift circuitry in the array feed lines, making it suitable for mm-wave frequencies. A 12 input (beam ports), 12 output (array ports) lens is designed using CST Microwave Studio, and the predicted results are presented.