NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Fast plasma heating in a cone-attached geometry - towards fusion ignition

We have developed a PW (0.5 ps/500J) laser system to demonstrate fast heating of imploded core plasmas using a hollow cone shell target. Significant enhancement of thermal neutron yield has been realized with PW-laser heating, confirming that the high heating efficiency is maintained as the short-pulse laser power is substantially increased to a value nearly equivalent to the ignition condition. It appears that the efficient heating is realized by the guiding of the PW laser pulse energy within the hollow cone and by self-organized relativistic electron transport. Based on the experimental results, we are developing a 10kJ-PW laser system to study the fast heating physics of high-density plasmas at an ignition-equivalent temperature.

Numerical simulation of a patent technology for sealing of deep-sea oil wells using nonlinear finite element method

For over 50 years bridge plugs and cement have been used for well abandonment and work over and are still the material of choice. However the failures of cement abandonments using bridge plugs has been reported on many occasions, some of which have resulted in fatal consequences. A new patented product is designed to address the shortcomings associated with using bridge plugs and cement. The new developed tools use an alloy based on bismuth that is melted in situ using Thermite reaction. The tool uses the expansion properties of bismuth to seal the well. Testing the new technology in real field under more than 2 km deep sea water can be expensive. Virtual simulation of the new device under simulated thermal and mechanical environment can be achieved using nonlinear finite element method to validate the product and reduce cost. Experimental testing in the lab is performed to measure heat generated due to thermite reaction. Then, a sequential thermal mechanical explicit/implicit finite element solver is used to simulate the device under both testing lab and deep water conditions.

Ethanol (C2H5OH) spray of sub-micron droplets for laser driven negative ion source

Liquid ethanol (C₂H₅OH) was used to generate a spray of sub-micron droplets. Sprays with different nozzle geometries have been tested and characterised using Mie scattering to find scaling properties and to generate droplets with different diameters within the spray. Nozzles having throat diameters of 470 µm and 560 µm showed generation of ethanol spray with droplet diameters of (180 ± 10) nm and (140 ± 10) nm, respectively. These investigations were motivated by the observation of copious negative ions from these target systems, e.g., negative oxygen and carbon ions measured from water and ethanol sprays irradiated with ultra-intense (5 × 1019 W/cm2), ultra short (40 fs) laser pulses. It is shown that the droplet diameter and the average atomic density of the spray have a significant effect on the numbers and energies of accelerated ions, both positive and negative. These targets open new possibilities for the creation of efficient and compact sources of different negative ion species.

Generation of a quasi-monoergetic proton beam from laser-irradiated sub-micron droplets

Proton bursts with a narrow spectrum at an energy of (2.8 +/- 0.3 MeV) are accelerated from sub-micron water spray droplets irradiated by high-intensity (similar to 5 x 10(19)W/cm(2)), high-contrast (similar to 10(10)), ultra-short (40 fs) laser pulses. The acceleration is preferentially in the laser propagation direction. The explosion dynamics is governed by a residual ps-scale laser pulse pedestal which "mildly" preheats the droplet and changes its density profile before the arrival of the high intensity laser pulse peak. As a result, the energetic electrons extracted from the modified target by the high-intensity part of the laser pulse establish an anisotropic electrostatic field which results in anisotropic Coulomb explosion and proton acceleration predominantly in the forward direction. Hydrodynamic simulations of the target pre-expansion and 3D particle-in-cell simulations of the measured energy and anisotropy of the proton emission have confirmed the proposed acceleration scenario. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4731712]