Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

Physicochemical tolerance, habitat use and predation are drivers of patterns of coexistence and exclusion among invasive and resident amphipods

1. Patterns of coexistence and exclusion among resident and invading species in freshwaters may be generated by direct biotic interactions well as by indirect interactions with the broader abiotic and biotic environments. The North American ‘shrimp’ Crangonyx pseudogracilis (Crustacea: Amphipoda) is invasive in Europe where it forms complex patterns of apparent exclusion and coexistence with resident Gammarus spp. amphipods. Using a comprehensive integrated approach, we investigated the potential biotic and interacting abiotic factors driving these distribution patterns.
2. A 2009 of 69 sites revealed that of 56 river sites containing amphipods only 6 contained C. pseudogracilis and these always co-occurred with Gammarus spp.. In contrast, C. pseudogracilis was the only species present in the 12 ponds/reservoirs containing amphipods.
3. Field transplant experiments in ponds and laboratory oxygen tolerance experiments revealed that C. pseudogracilis tolerates physicochemical regimes which Gammarus spp. are incapable of surviving.
4. River microhabitat sampling showed C. pseudogracilis dominating in slower, more pooled and macrophyte-dense patches, while Gammarus spp. were dominant in faster, more riffled areas.
5. Field bioassays indicated that predation of C. pseudogracilis by Gammarus spp. may be frequent in patches of rivers if/when the species meet.
6. River drift sampling revealed that C. pseudogracilis was greatly underrepresented in night/day drift relative to the Gammarus spp.. Laboratory studies showed C. pseudogracilis to be more photophobic and less active than Gammarus spp., both behaviours potentially contributing to low drift prevalence and consequent reduced exposure to shared drift predators.
7. These interacting factors may ultimately contribute to the coexistence, exclusion and relative distributions of C. pseudogracilis and Gammarus spp.. The former is potentially subject to intense predation from the latter if they encounter one another in the same microhabitat. However, with C. pseudogracilis being more physicochemically tolerant and displaying different habitat utilisation patterns than the Gammarus spp. in respect of the benthos and drift, such encounters are probably minimised. Hence C. pseudogracilis can persist in the same sites with the Gammarus spp., albeit in different microhabitats.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Climatic signals in the life histories of insects:the distribution and abundance of heather psyllids (Strophingia spp.) in the UK

1. The population density and age structure of two species of heather psyllid Strophingia ericae and Strophingia cinereae, feeding on Calluna vulgaris and Erica cinerea, respectively, were sampled using standardized methods at locations throughout Britain. Locations were chosen to represent the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of the host plants.

2. The paper explains how spatial variation in thermal environment, insect life-history characteristics and physiology, and plant distribution, interact to provide the mechanisms that determine the range and abundance of Strophingia spp.

3. Strophingia ericae and S. cinereae, despite the similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of their host plants within Britain, display strongly contrasting geographical ranges and corresponding life-history strategies. Strophingia ericae is found on its host plant throughout Britain but S. cinereae is restricted to low elevation sites south of the Mersey-Humber line and occupies only part of the latitudinal and altitudinal range of its host plant. There is no evidence to suggest that S. ericae has reached its potential altitudinal or latitudinal limit in the UK, even though its host plant appears to reach its altitudinal limit.

4. There was little difference in the ability of the two Strophingia spp. to survive shortterm exposure to temperatures as low as - 15 degrees C and low winter temperatures probably do not limit distribution in S. cinereae.

5. Population density of S. ericae was not related to altitude but showed a weak correlation with latitude. The spread of larval instars present at a site, measured as an index of instar homogeneity, was significantly correlated with a range of temperature related variables, of which May mean temperature and length of growing season above 3 degrees C (calculated using the Lennon and Turner climatic model) were the most significant. Factor analysis did not improve the level of correlation significantly above those obtained for single climatic variables. The data confirmed that S. ericae has a I year life cycle at the lowest elevations and a 2 year life cycle at the higher elevations. However, there was no evidence, as previously suggested, for an abrupt change from a one to a 2 year life cycle in S. ericae with increasing altitudes or latitudes.

6. By contrast with S. ericae, S. cinereae had an obligatory 1 year life cycle, its population decreased with altitude and the index of instar homogeneity showed little correlation with single temperature variables. Moreover, it occupied only part of the range of its host plant and its spatial distribution in the UK could be predicted with 96% accuracy using selected variables in discriminant analysis.

7. The life histories of the congeneric heather psyllids reflect adaptations that allow them to exploit host plants with different distributions in climatic and thereby geographical space. Strophingia ericae has the flexible life history that enables it to exploit C. vulgaris throughout its European boreal temperate range. Strophingia cinereae has a less flexible life history and is adapted for living on an oceanic temperate host. While the geographic ranges of the two Strophingia spp. overlap within the UK, the psyllids appear to respond differently to variation in their thermal environment.

Late Quaternary climatic record from ODP Site 705 in the Northern Indian Ocean

The uppermost 500cm sedimentary core from ODP site located at the Eastern flank of Najareth bank in the Northern Indian Ocean has yielded altogether twenty four species of planktonic foraminifera. Among all these species, Globorotalia menardii has been found to be consistently dominant in the faunal assemblages from most of the samples. The 18O measured on the tests of Globorotalia menardii from all levels help in precisely working out the sediment accumulation rates at different isotopic stages, and deciphering the change in climate in the Late Quaternary as well.

The Climate of War: Violence, Warfare and Climatic Reductionism

National security agencies and other interested parties now often regard conflict as the inevitable consequence of climate change. This inclination to reduce war to the vicissitudes of climate is not new however. Here I examine some of the earlier ways in which violence was attributed to climatic conditions, particularly in the United States, and trace links between these older advocates of climatic determinism and the recent writings of those insisting that climate change will usher in a grim world of chronic warfare. It ends by drawing attention to the writings of some critics who are troubled by the ease with which climatic reductionism is capturing the public imagination.

Responding to mental health statutory drivers: experience of a low intensity cognitive behavioural therapy programme

Objectives Stress control (SC), a brief psycho-education course, was implemented to increase access to psychological therapies in line with Northern Irish mental health service statutory drivers. The first aim of this study was to gauge the efficacy of SC in a robust manner with clinical significance testing. The second aim was to assess whether demographics traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ – males, younger adults and those from deprived areas – accessed SC. The third aim was to elucidate what prompted their access and the experiences of attendees at SC. Methods Attendees at SC were 170 adults over six iterations of the course. Pre- and post-questionnaires included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales – 21, captured demographic details and qualitative feedback, which was subject to a mixed-methods analysis. Results SC attendees reported significant decreases on depression, anxiety and stress sub-scales post-intervention. Moreover, 38.71% ( n =36) of attendees who completed SC exhibited clinically significant improvement afterwards on one or more sub-scale. Attendance figures for males, younger adults and those classified as socioeconomically deprived were modest. Patterns within the data suggested prospective success for targeting these cohorts. Conclusions SC attracted people in need of mental healthcare input and affected quantifiable change within those people’s lives, while satisfying statutory demands for service delivery in an accessible community context. Recommendations to increase engagement with those traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ for psychological services are provided, which, if implemented, have the potential to achieve further compliance with Northern Irish mental health statutory drivers.

Lake Kumphawapi revisited – The complex climatic and environmental record of a tropical wetland in NE Thailand

Kumphawapi, which is Thailand’s largest natural freshwater lake, contains a >10,000-year-long climatic and environmental archive. New data sets (stratigraphy, chronology, hydrogen isotopes, plant macrofossil and charcoal records) for two sedimentary sequences are here combined with earlier multi-proxy studies to provide a comprehensive reconstruction of past climatic and environmental changes for Northeast Thailand. Gradually higher moisture availability due to a strengthening of the summer monsoon led to the formation of a large shallow lake in the Kumphawapi basin between >10,700 and c. 7000 cal. BP. The marked increase in moisture availability and lower evaporation between c. 7000 and 6400 cal. BP favoured the growth and expansion of vegetation in and around the shallow lake. The increase in biomass led to gradual overgrowing and infilling, to an apparent lake level lowering and to the development of a wetland. Multiple hiatuses are apparent in all investigated sequences between c. 6500 and 1400 cal. BP and are explained by periodic desiccation events of the wetland and erosion due to the subsequent lake level rise. The rise in lake level, which started c. 2000 cal. BP and reached shallower parts c. 1400 cal. BP, is attributed to an increase in effective moisture availability. The timing of hydroclimatic conditions during the past 2000 years cannot be resolved because of chronological limitations.