The Holocene vegetation cover of Britain and Ireland: overcoming problems of scale and discerning patterns of openness

The vegetation of Europe has undergone substantial changes during the course of the Holocene epoch, resulting from range expansion of plants following climate amelioration, competition between taxa and disturbance through anthropogenic activities. Much of the detail of this pattern is understood from
decades of pollen analytical work across Europe, and this understanding has been used to address questions relating to vegetation-climate feedback, biogeography and human impact. Recent advances in modelling the relationship between pollen and vegetation now make it possible to transform pollen
proportions into estimates of vegetation cover at both regional and local spatial scales, using the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA), i.e. the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) and the LOVE (LOcal VEgetation) models. This paper presents the compilation and analysis of 73 pollen stratigraphies from the British Isles, to assess the application of the LRA and describe the pattern of landscape/woodland openness (i.e. the cover of low herb and bushy vegetation) through the Holocene. The results show that multiple small sites can be used as an effective replacement for a single large site for the reconstruction of regional vegetation cover. The REVEALS vegetation estimates imply that the British Isles had a greater degree of landscape/woodland openness at the regional scale than areas on the European mainland. There is considerable spatial bias in the British Isles dataset towards wetland areas and uplands, which may explain higher estimates of landscape openness compared with Europe. Where multiple estimates of regional vegetation are available from within the same region inter-regional differences are greater than intra-regional differences, supporting the use of the REVEALS model to the estimation of regional vegetation from pollen data.

Linking watershed terrain and hydrology to soil chemical properties, microbial communities and impacts on soil organic C in a humid mid-latitude forested watershed

Understanding the response of humid mid-latitude forests to changes in precipitation, temperature, nutrient cycling, and disturbance is critical to improving our predictive understanding of changes in the surface-subsurface energy balance due to climate change. Mechanistic understanding of the effects of long-term and transient moisture conditions are needed to quantify
linkages between changing redox conditions, microbial activity, and soil mineral and nutrient interactions on C cycling and greenhouse gas releases. To illuminate relationships between the soil chemistry, microbial communities and organic C we established transects across hydraulic and topographic gradients in a small watershed with transient moisture conditions. Valley bottoms tend to be more frequently saturated than ridge tops and side slopes which generally are only saturated when shallow storm flow zones are active. Fifty shallow (~36”) soil cores were collected during timeframes representative of low CO2, soil winter conditions and high CO2, soil summer conditions. Cores were subdivided into 240 samples based on pedology and analyses of the geochemical (moisture content, metals, pH, Fe species, N, C, CEC, AEC) and microbial (16S rRNA gene
amplification with Illumina MiSeq sequencing) characteristics were conducted and correlated to watershed terrain and hydrology. To associate microbial metabolic activity with greenhouse gas emissions we installed 17 soil gas probes, collected gas samples for 16 months and analyzed them for CO2 and other fixed and greenhouse gasses. Parallel to the experimental efforts our data is being used to support hydrobiogeochemical process modeling by coupling the Community Land Model (CLM) with a subsurface process model (PFLOTRAN) to simulate processes and interactions from the molecular to watershed scales. Including above ground processes (biogeophysics, hydrology, and vegetation dynamics), CLM provides mechanistic water, energy, and organic matter inputs to the surface/subsurface models, in which coupled biogeochemical reaction
networks are used to improve the representation of below-ground processes. Preliminary results suggest that inclusion of above ground processes from CLM greatly improves the prediction of moisture response and water cycle at the watershed scale.

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.

Holocene climate and environmental change in north-eastern Kamchatka (Russian Far East), inferred from a multi-proxy study of lake sediments

A sediment record from a small lake in the north-eastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula has been investigated in a multi-proxy study to gain knowledge of Holocene climatic and environmental change. Pollen, diatoms, chironomids and selected geochemical parameters were analysed and the sediment record was dated with radiocarbon. The study shows Holocene changes in the terrestrial vegetation as well as responses of the lake ecosystem to catchment maturity and multiple stressors, such as climate change and volcanic eruptions. Climate change is the major driving force resulting in the recorded environmental changes in the lake, although recurrent tephra deposition events also contributed. The sediment record has an age at the base of about 10,000 cal yrs BP, and during the first 400 years the climate was cold and the lake exhibited extensive ice-cover during winter and relatively low primary production. Soils in the catchment were poor with shrub alder and birches dominating the vegetation surrounding the lake. At about 9600–8900 cal yrs BP the climate was cold and moist, and strong seasonal wind stress resulted in reduced ice-cover and increased primary production. After ca. 8900 cal yrs BP the forest density increased around the lake, runoff decreased in a generally drier climate resulting in decreased primary production in the lake until ca. 7000 cal yrs BP. This generally dry climate was interrupted by a brief climatic perturbation, possibly attributed to the 8.2 ka event, indicating increasingly windy conditions with thick snow cover, reduced ice-cover and slightly elevated primary production in the lake. The diatom record shows maximum thermal stratification at ca. 6300–5800 cal yrs BP and indicates together with the geochemical proxies a dry and slightly warmer climate resulting in a high productive lake. The most remarkably change in the catchment vegetation occurred at ca. 4200 cal yrs BP in the form of a conspicuous increase in Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila), indicating a shift to a cooler climate with a thicker and more long-lasting snow cover. This vegetational change was accompanied by marked shifts in the diatom and chironomid stratigraphies, which are also indicative of colder climate and more extensive ice-cover.

Abrupt Climate Changes: Climate and Biogeochemical consequences

Hosted in a wide depression within the Berici Hills (Venetian Plain), outside the maximum extent reached by LGM glaciers, Lake Fimon preserves an almost continuous archive of landscape and climate changes from the penultimate glacial maximum onwards. The stratigraphic succession deposited at the lake bottom has been investigated in three deep cores by means of pollen analysis, petrographic composition, magnetic susceptibility, LOI, and geochronology. Tephra layers have been identified and are currently under study.
Pollen data provide the first continuous vegetation record in northern Italy for the last 150 ky. Terrestrial vegetation varied from interglacial warm-temperate broad leaved to oceanic mixed forests, from boreal conifer forests to open forest-steppes of colder climate. Phases of major forest expansion and reduction have been correlated to isotopic events described in ice (NGRIP), stalagmite (Antro del Corchia) and marine records. Persistent afforestation recorded in northern Italy even during cold phases of the full pleniglacial is consistent with mesoscale paleoclimate simulations suggesting that a sharp rainfall gradient across the Alps enabled the survival of woody species in the southern alpine foreland.
Integrating litho- and biostratigraphical data, we identified sedimentation regìmes, accumulation rates, sediment sources and supply both for the Lake Fimon cores and the adjacent Venetian Plain, allowing a direct comparison with major glacial advances in the Alpine area, deglaciation pulses, and glacio-eustatic displacements of the northern Adriatic shoreline.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.