Toward Characterization Of The Type IIP Supernova Progenitor Population: A Statistical Sample Of Light Curves From Pan-STARRS1

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multi-band imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SN): systematic light curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 years and classified using both spectroscopy and machine learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multi-band evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a sub-population of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as "Type IIL" SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for supernova cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties, are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multi-band light curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide field transient searches.

Abstract 1905: Defining a therapeutic classification of breast cancer by actionable targets

Breast cancer remains a frequent cause of female cancer death despite the great strides in elucidation of biological subtypes and their reported clinical and prognostic significance. We have defined a general cohort of breast cancers in terms of putative actionable targets, involving growth and proliferative factors, the cell cycle, and apoptotic pathways, both as single biomarkers across a general cohort and within intrinsic molecular subtypes.

We identified 293 patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Additional hormonal therapy and trastuzumab was administered depending on hormonal and HER2 status respectively. We performed immunohistochemistry for ER, PR, HER2, MM1, CK5/6, p53, TOP2A, EGFR, IGF1R, PTEN, p-mTOR and e-cadherin. The cohort was classified into luminal (62%) and non-luminal (38%) tumors as well as luminal A (27%), luminal B HER2 negative (22%) and positive (12%), HER2 enriched (14%) and triple negative (25%). Patients with luminal tumors and co-overexpression of TOP2A or IGF1R loss displayed worse overall survival (p=0.0251 and p=0.0008 respectively). Non-luminal tumors had much greater heterogeneous expression profiles with no individual markers of prognostic significance. Non-luminal tumors were characterised by EGFR and TOP2A overexpression, IGF1R, PTEN and p-mTOR negativity and extreme p53 expression.

Our results indicate that only a minority of intrinsic subtype tumors purely express single novel actionable targets. This lack of pure biomarker expression is particular prevalent in the triple negative subgroup and may allude to the mechanism of targeted therapy inaction and myriad disappointing trial results. Utilising a combinatorial biomarker approach may enhance studies of targeted therapies providing additional information during design and patient selection while also helping decipher negative trial results.

Molecular classification of non-invasive breast lesions for personalised therapy and chemoprevention

Breast cancer screening has led to a dramatic increase in the detection of pre-invasive breast lesions. While mastectomy is almost guaranteed to treat the disease, more conservative approaches could be as effective if patients can be stratified based on risk of co-existing or recurrent invasive disease.Here we use a range of biomarkers to interrogate and classify purely non-invasive lesions (PNL) and those with co-existing invasive breast cancer (CEIN). Apart from Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS), relative homogeneity is observed. DCIS contained a greater spread of molecular subtypes. Interestingly, high expression of p-mTOR was observed in all PNL with lower expression in DCIS and invasive carcinoma while the opposite expression pattern was observed for TOP2A.Comparing PNL with CEIN, we have identified p53 and Ki67 as predictors of CEIN with a combined PPV and NPV of 90.48% and 43.3% respectively. Furthermore, HER2 expression showed the best concordance between DCIS and its invasive counterpart.We propose that these biomarkers can be used to improve the management of patients with pre-invasive breast lesions following further validation and clinical trials. p53 and Ki67 could be used to stratify patients into low and high-risk groups for co-existing disease. Knowledge of expression of more actionable targets such as HER2 or TOP2A can be used to design chemoprevention or neo-adjuvant strategies. Increased knowledge of the molecular profile of pre-invasive lesions can only serve to enhance our understanding of the disease and, in the era of personalised medicine, bring us closer to improving breast cancer care.

Machine learning classification of surgical pathology reports and chunk recognition for information extraction noise reduction

Background and aims: Machine learning techniques for the text mining of cancer-related clinical documents have not been sufficiently explored. Here some techniques are presented for the pre-processing of free-text breast cancer pathology reports, with the aim of facilitating the extraction of information relevant to cancer staging.

Materials and methods: The first technique was implemented using the freely available software RapidMiner to classify the reports according to their general layout: ‘semi-structured’ and ‘unstructured’. The second technique was developed using the open source language engineering framework GATE and aimed at the prediction of chunks of the report text containing information pertaining to the cancer morphology, the tumour size, its hormone receptor status and the number of positive nodes. The classifiers were trained and tested respectively on sets of 635 and 163 manually classified or annotated reports, from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry.

Results: The best result of 99.4% accuracy – which included only one semi-structured report predicted as unstructured – was produced by the layout classifier with the k nearest algorithm, using the binary term occurrence word vector type with stopword filter and pruning. For chunk recognition, the best results were found using the PAUM algorithm with the same parameters for all cases, except for the prediction of chunks containing cancer morphology. For semi-structured reports the performance ranged from 0.97 to 0.94 and from 0.92 to 0.83 in precision and recall, while for unstructured reports performance ranged from 0.91 to 0.64 and from 0.68 to 0.41 in precision and recall. Poor results were found when the classifier was trained on semi-structured reports but tested on unstructured.

Conclusions: These results show that it is possible and beneficial to predict the layout of reports and that the accuracy of prediction of which segments of a report may contain certain information is sensitive to the report layout and the type of information sought.