Deciding between accounts of the selection task: A reply to Oaksford (2002)

In this paper we report on our attempts to fit the optimal data selection (ODS) model (Oaksford Chater, 1994; Oaksford, Chater, & Larkin, 2000) to the selection task data reported in Feeney and Handley (2000) and Handley, Feeney, and Harper (2002). Although Oaksford (2002b) reports good fits to the data described in Feeney and Handley (2000), the model does not adequately capture the data described in Handley et al. (2002). Furthermore, across all six of the experiments modelled here, the ODS model does not predict participants' behaviour at the level of selection rates for individual cards. Finally, when people's probability estimates are used in the modelling exercise, the model adequately captures only I out of 18 conditions described in Handley et al. We discuss the implications of these results for models of the selection task and claim that they support deductive, rather than probabilistic, accounts of the task.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Maximising capture efficiency and specificity of magnetic separation for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis cells

In order to introduce specificity for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis prior to a phage amplification assay, various magnetic-separation approaches, involving either antibodies or peptides, were evaluated in terms of the efficiency of capture (expressed as a percentage) of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis cells and the percentage of nonspecific binding by other Mycobacterium spp. A 50:50 mixture of MyOne Tosylactivated Dynabeads coated with the chemically synthesized M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis-specific peptides biotinylated aMp3 and biotinylated aMptD (i.e., peptide-mediated magnetic separation [PMS]) proved to be the best magnetic-separation approach for achieving 85 to 100% capture of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis and minimal (<1%) nonspecific recovery of other Mycobacterium spp. (particularly if beads were blocked with 1% skim milk before use) from broth samples containing 103 to 104 CFU/ml. When PMS was coupled with a recently optimized phage amplification assay and used to detect M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis in 50-ml volumes of spiked milk, the mean 50% limit of detection (LOD50) was 14.4 PFU/50 ml of milk (equivalent to 0.3 PFU/ml). This PMS-phage assay represents a novel, rapid method for the detection and enumeration of viable M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis organisms in milk, and potentially other sample matrices, with results available within 48 h.

Restraing Regulatory Capture? Anglo America, Crisis Politics and Trajectories of Change in Global Financial Governance

A growing number of respected commentators now argue that regulatory capture of public agencies and public policy by leading banks was one of the main causal factors behind the financial crisis of 2007–2009, resulting in a permissive regulatory environment. This regulatory environment placed a faith in banks own internal risk models, contributed to pro-cyclical behaviour and turned a blind eye to excessive risk taking. The article argues that a form of ‘multi-level regulatory capture’ characterized the global financial architecture prior to the crisis. Simultaneously, regulatory capture fed off, but also nourished the financial boom, in a fashion that mirrored the life cycle of the boom itself. Minimizing future financial booms and crises will require continuous, conscious and explicit efforts to restrain financial regulatory capture now and into the future. The article assesses the extent to which this has been achieved in current global financial governance reform efforts and highlights some of the persistent difficulties that will continue to hamper efforts to restrain regulatory capture. The evidence concerning the extent to which regulatory capture is being effectively restrained is somewhat mixed, and where it is happening it is largely unintentional and accidental. Recent reforms have overlooked the political causes of the crisis and have failed to focus explicitly or systematically on regulatory capture.

Evaluation of a new peat-based sorbent for metals capture

A new peat-based sorbent was evaluated for the capture of heavy metals from waste streams. The media is a pelletted blend of organic humic material targeted for the capture of soluble metals from industrial waste streams and stormwater. The metals chosen for the media evaluation were Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn due to their occurrence and abundance in waste streams and runoff. Sorption tests included an evaluation of the rate and extent of metals capture by the media, single versus multicomponent metals uptake, pH, anion influence, leaching effects and the effect of media moisture content on uptake rate and capacity. Isotherms of the sorption results showed that the presence of multiple metals increased the total sorption capacity of the media compared to the single component metal capacity; a result of site selectivity within the media. However the capacity for an individual metal in a multicomponent metal matrix was reduced compared to its single component capacity, due to competition for sites. Evidence of ion exchange behavior was observed but did not account for all metals capture. The media also provided a buffering action to counter the pH drop typically associated with metals capture.

Laplace transforms of probability distributions and their inversions are easy on logarithmic scales

It is shown that, when expressing arguments in terms of their logarithms, the Laplace transform of a function is related to the antiderivative of this function by a simple convolution. This allows efficient numerical computations of moment generating functions of positive random variables and their inversion. The application of the method is straightforward, apart from the necessity to implement it using high-precision arithmetics. In numerical examples the approach is demonstrated to be particularly useful for distributions with heavy tails, Such as lognormal, Weibull, or Pareto distributions, which are otherwise difficult to handle. The computational efficiency compared to other methods is demonstrated for an M/G/1 queueing problem.

Animal-borne sensors successfully capture the real-time thermal properties of ocean basins

Climate change is perhaps the most pressing and urgent environmental issue facing the world today. However our ability to predict and quantify the consequences of this change is severely limited by the paucity of in situ oceanographic measurements. Marine animals equipped with sophisticated oceanographic data loggers to study their behavior offer one solution to this problem because marine animals range widely across the world's ocean basins and visit remote and often inaccessible locations. However, unlike the information being collected from conventional oceanographic sensing equipment, which has been validated, the data collected from instruments deployed on marine animals over long periods has not. This is the first long-term study to validate in situ oceanographic data collected by animal oceanographers. We compared the ocean temperatures collected by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic Ocean with the ARGO network of ocean floats and could find no systematic errors that could be ascribed to sensor instability. Animal-borne sensors allowed water temperature to be monitored across a range of depths, over entire ocean basins, and, importantly, over long periods and so will play a key role in assessing global climate change through improved monitoring of global temperatures. This finding is especially pertinent given recent international calls for the development and implementation of a comprehensive Earth observation system ( see http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/documents.asp?s=review) that includes the use of novel techniques for monitoring and understanding ocean and climate interactions to address strategic environmental and societal needs.

The distorted-wave impulse approximation for electron capture into excited states

Total cross sections for electron capture are calculated for collisions of fast protons and a-particles with atomic hydrogen. The distorted-wave impulse approximation is applied over the energy range 10-1500 keV/u. State-selective results are given for the 1s, 2s and 2p levels. Both the post and prior forms of the model are calculated and compared with results from other theories and experimental measurements. In general the model performs very well in comparison with experiment over this energy range though discrepancies arise at lower energies.

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjöll caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe but as a geological event, it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peat and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the last 7000 years. Within this period ten tephra layers have been identified in the Faroe Islands, 14 in Great Britain, 11 in Germany, 38 in Scandinavia and 33 in Ireland. Seven ash fall events have been historically documented prior to the Eyjafjöll 2010 event. Ash fall events appear to be more frequent in the last 1500 years, but it is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artefact of the records themselves or the way they have been generated. In the last 1,000 years, volcanic ash clouds reached Northern Europe with a mean return interval of 53 ± 8 years (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 112 years). Modelling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 year period there is a 17% probability of tephra fallout event in Northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

Signatures of delayed detonation, asymmetry, and electron capture in the mid-infrared spectra of supernovae 2003hv and 2005df

We present mid-infrared (5.2-15.2 mu m) spectra of the Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) 2003hv and 2005df observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. These are the first observed mid-infrared spectra of thermonuclear supernovae, and show strong emission from fine-structure lines of Ni, Co, S, and Ar. The detection of Ni emission in SN 2005df 135 days after the explosion provides direct observational evidence of high-density nuclear burning forming a significant amount of stable Ni in a SN Ia. The SN 2005df Ar lines also exhibit a two-pronged emission profile, implying that the Ar emission deviates significantly from spherical symmetry. The spectrum of SN 2003hv also shows signs of asymmetry, exhibiting blueshifted [Co (III)], which matches the blueshift of [Fe (II)] lines in nearly coeval near-infrared spectra. Finally, local thermodynamic equilibrium abundance estimates for the yield of radioactive Ni-56 give M-56Ni approximate to 0.5 M-circle dot, for SN 2003hv, but only M-56Ni approximate to 0.13-0.22 M-circle dot for the apparently subluminous SN 2005df, supporting the notion that the luminosity of SNe Ia is primarily a function of the radioactive 56Ni yield. The observed emission-line profiles in the SN 2005df spectrum indicate a chemically stratified ejecta structure, which matches the predictions of delayed detonation (DD) models, but is entirely incompatible with current three-dimensional deflagration models. Furthermore, the degree that this layering persists to the innermost regions of the supernova is difficult to explain even in a DD scenario, where the innermost ejecta are still the product of deflagration burning. Thus, while these results are roughly consistent with a delayed detonation, it is clear that a key piece of physics is still missing from our understanding of the earliest phases of SN Ia explosions.