Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Cell survival responses after exposure to modulated radiation fields.

In the present study survival responses were determined in cells with differing radiosensitivity, specifically primary fibroblast (AG0-1522B), human breast cancer (MDA-MB-231), human prostate cancer (DU-145) and human glioma (T98G) cells, after exposure to modulated radiation fields delivered by shielding 50% of the tissue culture flask. A significant decrease (P < 0.05) in cell survival was observed in the shielded area, outside the primary treatment field (out-of-field), that was lower than predicted when compared to uniform exposures fitted to the linear-quadratic model. Cellular radiosensitivity was demonstrated to be an important factor in the level of response for both the in- and out-of-field regions. These responses were shown to be dependent on secretion-mediated intercellular communication, because inhibition of cellular secreted factors between the in- and out-of-field regions abrogated the response. Out-of-field cell survival was shown to increase after pretreatment of cells with agents known to inhibit factors involved in mediating radiation-induced bystander signaling (aminoguanidine, DMSO or cPTIO). These data illustrate a significant decrease in survival out-of-field, dependent upon intercellular communication, in several cell lines with varying radiosensitivity after exposure to a modulated radiation field. This study provides further evidence for the importance of intercellular signaling in modulated exposures, where dose gradients are present, and may inform the refinement of established radiobiological models to facilitate the optimization of advanced radiotherapy treatment plans.

Burkholderia cenocepacia requires a periplasmic HtrA protease for growth under thermal and osmotic stress and for survival in vivo

Burkholderia cenocepacia, a member of the B. cepacia complex, is an opportunistic pathogen that causes serious infections in patients with cystic fibrosis. We identified a six-gene cluster in chromosome 1 encoding a two-component regulatory system (BCAL2831 and BCAL2830) and an HtrA protease (BCAL2829) hypothesized to play a role in the B. cenocepacia stress response. Reverse transcriptase PCR analysis of these six genes confirmed they are cotranscribed and comprise an operon. Genes in this operon, including htrA, were insertionally inactivated by recombination with a newly created suicide plasmid, pGPOmegaTp. Genetic analyses and complementation studies revealed that HtrA(BCAL2829) was required for growth of B. cenocepacia upon exposure to osmotic stress (NaCl or KCl) and thermal stress (44 degrees C). In addition, replacement of the serine residue in the active site with alanine (S245A) and deletion of the HtrA(BCAL2829) PDZ domains demonstrated that these areas are required for protein function. HtrA(BCAL2829) also localizes to the periplasmic compartment, as shown by Western blot analysis and a colicin V reporter assay. Using the rat agar bead model of chronic lung infection, we also demonstrated that inactivation of the htrA gene is associated with a bacterial survival defect in vivo. Together, our data demonstrate that HtrA(BCAL2829) is a virulence factor in B. cenocepacia.

A complete lipopolysaccharide inner core oligosaccharide is required for resistance of Burkholderia cenocepacia to antimicrobial peptides and bacterial survival in vivo

Burkholderia cenocepacia is an important opportunistic pathogen of patients with cystic fibrosis. This bacterium is inherently resistant to a wide range of antimicrobial agents, including high concentrations of antimicrobial peptides. We hypothesized that the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of B. cenocepacia is important for both virulence and resistance to antimicrobial peptides. We identified hldA and hldD genes in B. cenocepacia strain K56-2. These two genes encode enzymes involved in the modification of heptose sugars prior to their incorporation into the LPS core oligosaccharide. We constructed a mutant, SAL1, which was defective in expression of both hldA and hldD, and by performing complementation studies we confirmed that the functions encoded by both of these B. cenocepacia genes were needed for synthesis of a complete LPS core oligosaccharide. The LPS produced by SAL1 consisted of a short lipid A-core oligosaccharide and was devoid of O antigen. SAL1 was sensitive to the antimicrobial peptides polymyxin B, melittin, and human neutrophil peptide 1. In contrast, another B. cenocepacia mutant strain that produced complete lipid A-core oligosaccharide but lacked polymeric O antigen was not sensitive to polymyxin B or melittin. As determined by the rat agar bead model of lung infection, the SAL1 mutant had a survival defect in vivo since it could not be recovered from the lungs of infected rats 14 days postinfection. Together, these data show that the B. cenocepacia LPS inner core oligosaccharide is needed for in vitro resistance to three structurally unrelated antimicrobial peptides and for in vivo survival in a rat model of chronic lung infection.

Intracellular survival of Burkholderia cepacia complex isolates in the presence of macrophage cell activation

Strains of the Burkholderia cepacia complex have emerged as a serious threat to patients with cystic fibrosis due to their ability to infect the lung and cause, in some patients, a necrotizing pneumonia that is often lethal. It has recently been shown that several strains of the B. cepacia complex can escape intracellular killing by free-living amoebae following phagocytosis. In this work, the ability of two B. cepacia complex strains to resist killing by macrophages was explored. Using fluorescence microscopy, electron microscopy and a modified version of the gentamicin-protection assay, we demonstrate that B. cepacia CEP021 (genomovar VI), and Burkholderia vietnamiensis (previously B. cepacia genomovar V) CEP040 can survive in PU5-1.8 murine macrophages for a period of at least 5 d without significant bacterial replication. Furthermore, bacterial entry into macrophages stimulated production of tumour necrosis factor and primed them to release toxic oxygen radicals following treatment with phorbol myristoyl acetate. These effects were probably caused by bacterial LPS, as they were blocked by polymyxin B. Infected macrophages primed with interferon gamma produced less nitric oxide than interferon-gamma-primed uninfected cells. We propose that the ability of B. cepacia to resist intracellular killing by phagocytic cells may play a role in the pathogenesis of cystic fibrosis lung infection. Our data are consistent with a model where repeated cycles of phagocytosis and cellular activation without bacterial killing may promote a deleterious inflammatory response causing tissue destruction and decay of lung function.

Investigating the efficiency of fitting Coxian phase-type distributions to health care data

Coxian phase-type distributions are becoming a popular means of representing survival times within a health care environment. They are favoured as they show a distribution as a system of phases and can allow for an easy visual representation of the rate of flow of patients through a system. Difficulties arise, however, in determining the parameter estimates of the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines ways of making the fitting of the Coxian phase-type distribution less cumbersome by outlining different software packages and algorithms available to perform the fit and assessing their capabilities through a number of performance measures. The performance measures rate each of the methods and help in identifying the more efficient. Conclusions drawn from these performance measures suggest SAS to be the most robust package. It has a high rate of convergence in each of the four example model fits considered, short computational times, detailed output, convergence criteria options, along with a succinct ability to switch between different algorithms.

Oesophageal cancer survival in Europe:A EUROCARE-4 study

Oesophageal cancer survival is poor with variation across Europe. No pan-European studies of survival differences by oesophageal cancer subtype exist. This study investigates rates and trends in oesophageal cancer survival across Europe. Data for primary malignant oesophageal cancer diagnosed in 1995-1999 and followed up to the end of 2003 was obtained from 66 cancer registries in 24 European countries. Relative survival was calculated using the Hakulinen approach. Staging data were available from 19 registries. Survival by region, gender, age, morphology and stage was investigated. Cohort analysis and the period approach were applied to investigate survival trends from 1988 to 2002 for 31 registries in 17 countries. In total 51,499 cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995-1999 were analysed. Overall, European 1- and 5-year survival rates were 33.4% (95% CI 32.9-33.9%) and 9.8% (95% CI 9.4-10.1%), respectively. Males, older patients and patients with late stage disease had poorer 1- and 5-year relative survival. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma had poorer 1-year relative survival. Regional variation in survival was observed with Central Europe above and Eastern Europe below the European pool. Survival for distant stage disease was similar across Europe while survival rates for localised disease were below the European pool in Eastern and Southern Europe. Improvement in European 1-year relative survival was reported (p=0.016). Oesophageal cancer survival was poor across Europe. Persistent regional variations in 1-year survival point to a need for a high resolution study of diagnostic and treatment practices of oesophageal cancer.

Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and out-of-field cell survival responses to passive scattering and pencil beam scanning proton beam deliveries

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of passive scattered (PS) and pencil beam scanned (PBS) proton beam delivery techniques for uniform beam configurations was determined by clonogenic survival. The radiobiological impact of modulated beam configurations on cell survival occurring in- or out-of-field for both delivery techniques was determined with intercellular communication intact or physically inhibited. Cell survival responses were compared to those observed using a 6 MV photon beam produced with a linear accelerator. DU-145 cells showed no significant difference in survival response to proton beams delivered by PS and PBS or 6 MV photons taking into account a RBE of 1.1 for protons at the centre of the spread out Bragg peak. Significant out-of-field effects similar to those observed for 6 MV photons were observed for both PS and PBS proton deliveries with cell survival decreasing to 50-60% survival for scattered doses of 0.05 and 0.03 Gy for passive scattered and pencil beam scanned beams respectively. The observed out-of-field responses were shown to be dependent on intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. These data demonstrate, for the first time, a similar RBE between passive and actively scanned proton beams and confirm that out-of-field effects may be important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated photon and proton fields

Burkholderia multivorans survival and trafficking within macrophages

Cystic fibrosis (CF) patients are at great risk of opportunistic lung infection, particularly by members of the Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc). This group of bacteria can cause damage to the lung tissue of infected patients and are very difficult to eradicate due to their high levels of antibiotic resistance. Though the highly virulent B. cenocepacia has been the focus of virulence research for the past decade, B. multivorans is emerging as the most prevalent Bcc species infecting CF patients in North America. Despite several studies detailing the intramacrophage trafficking and survival of B. cenocepacia, no such data exists for B. multivorans. Our results demonstrated that clinical CF isolates, C5568 and C0514, and an environmental B. multivorans isolate, ATCC17616, were able to replicate and survive within murine macrophages in a manner similar to B. cenocepacia K56-2. These strains were also able to survive but were unable to replicate within human THP-1 macrophages. Differences in macrophage uptake were observed among all three B. multivorans strains; these variances were attributed to major differences in O-antigen production. Unlike B. cenocepacia-containing vacuoles, which delay phagosomal maturation in murine macrophages by 6 h, all B. multivorans containing vacuoles co-localized with late endosome/lysosomal marker LAMP-1 and the lysosomal marker dextran within 2 h of uptake. Together, these results indicate that while both Bcc species are able to survive and replicate within macrophages, they utilize different intramacrophage survival strategies. To observe differences in virulence the strains were compared using the Galleria mellonella model. When compared to the B. multivorans strains tested, B. cenocepacia K56-2 is highly virulent in this model and killed all worms within 24 h when injected at 107 CFU. B. multivorans clinical isolates C5568 and C0514 were significantly more virulent than the soil isolate ATCC17616, which was avirulent, even when worms were injected with 107 CFU. These results suggest strain differences in the virulence of B. multivorans isolates.

In-vitro investigation of out-of-field cell survival following the delivery of conformal, intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans

The aim of this work is to determine the out-of-field survival of cells irradiated with either the primary field or scattered radiation in the presence and absence of intercellular communication following delivery of conformal, IMRT and VMAT treatment plans. Single beam, conformal, IMRT and VMAT plans were created to deliver 3 Gy to half the area of a T80 flask containing either DU-145 or AGO-1522 cells allowing intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. The same plans were delivered to a similar custom made phantom used to hold two T25 culture flasks, one flask in-field and one out-of-field to allow comparison of cell survival responses when intercellular communication is physically inhibited. Plans were created for the delivery of 8 Gy to the more radio-resistant DU-145 cells only in the presence and absence of intercellular communication. Cell survival was determined by clonogenic assay. In both cell lines, the out-of-field survival was not statistically different between delivery techniques for either cell line or dose. There was however, a statistically significant difference between survival out-of-field when intercellular communication was intact (single T80 culture flask) or inhibited (multiple T25 culture flasks) to in-field for all plans. No statistically significant difference was observed in-field with or without cellular communication to out-of-field for all plans. These data demonstrate out-of-field effects as important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated irradiation fields when cellular communication between differentially irradiated cell populations is present. This data is further evidence that refinement of existing radiobiological models to include indirect cell killing effects is required.

KNK437, abrogates hypoxia-induced radioresistance by dual targeting of the AKT and HIF-1α survival pathways

KNK437 is a benzylidene lactam compound known to inhibit stress-induced synthesis of heat shock proteins (HSPs). HSPs promote radioresistance and play a major role in stabilizing hypoxia inducible factor-1a (HIF-1a). HIF-1a is widely responsible for tumor resistance to radiation under hypoxic conditions. We hypothesized that KNK437 sensitizes cancer cells to radiation and overrides hypoxia-induced radioresistance via destabilizing HIF-1a. Treatment of human cancer cells MDA-MB-231 and T98G with KNK437 sensitized them to ionizing radiation (IR). Surprisingly, IR did not induce HSPs in these cell lines. As hypothesized, KNK437 abrogated the accumulation of HIF-1a in hypoxic cells. However, there was no induction of HSPs under hypoxic conditions. Moreover, the proteosome inhibitor MG132 did not restore HIF-1a levels in KNK437-treated cells. This suggested that the absence of HIF-1a in hypoxic cells was not due to the enhanced protein degradation. HIF-1a is mainly regulated at the level of post-transcription and AKT is known to modulate the translation of HIF-1a mRNA. Interestingly, pre-treatment of cells with KNK437 inhibited AKT signaling. Furthermore, down regulation of AKT by siRNA abrogated HIF-1a levels under hypoxia. Interestingly, KNK437 reduced cell survival in hypoxic conditions and inhibited hypoxia-induced resistance to radiation. Taken together, these data suggest that KNK437 is an effective radiosensitizer that targets multiple pro-survival stress response pathways.

Postglacial dispersal, rather than in situ glacial survival, best explains the disjunct distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica (Ericaceae)

Aim:

The distribution of the Lusitanian flora and fauna, species which are found only in southern and western Ireland and in northern Spain and Portugal but which are absent from intervening countries, represents one of the classic conundrums of biogeography. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica was due to persistence in separate Irish and Iberian refugia, or has resulted from post-glacial recolonization followed by subsequent extinction of intervening populations.

Location:

Northern Spain and Co. Galway, western Ireland.

Methods:

Palaeodistribution modelling using Maxent was employed to identify putative refugial areas for D. cantabrica at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from 64 locations in Ireland and Spain were carried out using a chloroplast marker (atpB–rbcL), the nuclear ITS region, and an anonymous nuclear single-copy locus.

Results:

The palaeodistribution model indicated areas with a high probability of survival for D. cantabrica at the LGM off the western coast of Galicia in Spain, and in the Bay of Biscay. Spanish populations exhibited substantially higher genetic diversity than Irish populations at all three loci, as well as geographical structuring of haplotypes within Spain consistent with divergence in separate refugia. Spanish populations also exhibited far more endemic haplotypes. Divergence time between Irish and Spanish populations associated with the putative Biscay refugium was estimated as 3.333–32 ka.

Main conclusions:

Our data indicate persistence by D. cantabrica throughout the LGM in two separate southern refugia: one in western Galicia and one in the area off the coast of western France which now lies in the Bay of Biscay. Spain was recolonized from both refugia, whilst Ireland was most likely recolonized from the Biscay refugium. On the balance of evidence across the three marker types and the palaeodistribution modelling, our findings do not support the idea of in situ survival of D. cantabrica in Ireland, contrary to earlier suggestions. The fact that we cannot conclusively rule out the existence of a small, more northerly refugium, however, highlights the need for further analysis of Lusitanian plant species.

Response to Comment on "Glacial Survival of Boreal Trees in Northern Scandinavia"

Birks et al. question our proposition that trees survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Northern Scandinavia. We dispute their interpretation of our modern genetic data but agree that more work is required. Our field and laboratory procedures were robust; contamination is an unlikely explanation of our results. Their description of Endletvatn as ice-covered and inundated during the LGM is inconsistent with recent geological literature.

The effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis determined using veterinary surveillance and meteorological data for Northern Ireland over the period 1999-2009

While the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes have been described in detail, and evidence for global climate change is mounting, there have been only a few attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change. Studies of this type have been completed for England Scotland and Wales, but not for Northern Ireland (NI). Here we present an analysis of veterinary diagnostic data that relates three categories of gastrointestinal nematode infection in sheep to historical meteorological data for NI. The infections are: trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis (Teladorsagia/Trichostrongylus), strongyloidosis and nematodirosis. This study aims to provide a baseline for future climate change analyses and to provide basic information for the development of nematode control programmes. After identifying and evaluating possible sources of bias, climate change was found to be the most likely explanation for the observed patterns of change in parasite epidemiology, although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis showed a uniform year-round distribution for Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus infections, suggesting consistent levels of larval survival throughout the year and extension of the traditionally expected seasonal transmission windows. Nematodirosis showed a higher level of autumn than Spring infection, suggesting that suitable conditions for egg and larval development occurred after the Spring infection period. Differences between regions within the Province were shown for strongyloidosis, with peaks of infection falling in the period September-November. For all three-infection categories (trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis, strongyloidosis and nematodirosis), significant differences in the rates of diagnosis, and in the seasonality of disease, were identified between regions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined genomic and phenotype screening reveals secretory factor SPINK1 as an invasion and survival factor associated with patient prognosis in breast cancer

Secretory factors that drive cancer progression are attractive immunotherapeutic targets. We used a whole-genome data-mining approach on multiple cohorts of breast tumours annotated for clinical outcomes to discover such factors. We identified Serine protease inhibitor Kazal-type 1 (SPINK1) to be associated with poor survival in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) cases. Immunohistochemistry showed that SPINK1 was absent in normal breast, present in early and advanced tumours, and its expression correlated with poor survival in ER+ tumours. In ER- cases, the prognostic effect did not reach statistical significance. Forced expression and/or exposure to recombinant SPINK1 induced invasiveness without affecting cell proliferation. However, down-regulation of SPINK1 resulted in cell death. Further, SPINK1 overexpressing cells were resistant to drug-induced apoptosis due to reduced caspase-3 levels and high expression of Bcl2 and phospho-Bcl2 proteins. Intriguingly, these anti-apoptotic effects of SPINK1 were abrogated by mutations of its protease inhibition domain. Thus, SPINK1 affects multiple aggressive properties in breast cancer: survival, invasiveness and chemoresistance. Because SPINK1 effects are abrogated by neutralizing antibodies, we suggest that SPINK1 is a viable potential therapeutic target in breast cancer.